Fed-related news tracking
2026
Jul02
U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs in June 2026, significantly missing expectations and following downward revisions to previous months [citation:33, 39, 41]. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, this was primarily due to a 0.3% drop in labor participation [citation:35, 46]. Leisure and hospitality saw their sharpest decline since 2020, even as healthcare remained a rare bright spot [citation:1, 34].
Jun30
As of July 1, 2026, CME FedWatch data indicates a 66.3% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in July, while the probability of a 25bps hike by September has risen to 50% . This hawkish shift is largely attributed to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy stance and persistent core inflation concerns .
As of July 1, 2026, CME FedWatch data shows a 66.3% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July, with a 33.7% chance of a 25bps hike . However, trader sentiment is shifting rapidly, with short positions in Fed Funds futures surging 30% since new Chair Kevin Warsh took office, driven by strong labor data and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Hammack .
Jun25
CME FedWatch data indicates a 65.8% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in July, while expectations for a September hike have surged, with a cumulative 66.4% chance of at least a 25bps increase . This shift is driven by May core PCE hitting a three-year high of 3.4% and persistent service inflation . Consequently, the US Dollar has reached a 13-month high while gold and real estate sectors face significant downward pressure .
Jun18
In Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair, the Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% but delivered a sharp hawkish surprise . While the hold was unanimous, the updated dot plot revealed that half of the officials now expect a hike by year-end, with 2026 projections moving significantly higher . Warsh also introduced structural reforms, including the shortest policy statement since 2007 and the removal of traditional forward guidance .
The Federal Reserve is soliciting public feedback on a proposed identification program for stablecoin issuers . This initiative follows the introduction of reserve funds by major players like State Street and Federated Hermes designed to meet new regulatory standards , and aligns with Fed Governor Waller’s view that stablecoins can amplify the global influence of U.S. monetary policy .
Jun17
The Federal Reserve updated its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), raising the median 2026 federal funds rate target to 3.8% from the 3.4% projected in March []. This shift follows a period of maintaining rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures driven by energy shocks and a tight labor market [].
Jun14
In November, U.S. job growth slowed significantly to 64,000, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.6% following the conclusion of a government shutdown []. Despite the cooling labor market, hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials and uncertainty regarding the interest rate outlook led markets to slash December rate cut expectations from 95% to roughly 50% []. Consequently, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced sharp declines as investors fled high-valuation AI and tech stocks [].
Jun10
US May CPI surged to 4.2%, the highest since April 2023, primarily driven by energy costs linked to Middle East tensions . With core CPI at 2.9% and recent strong employment data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October have jumped to 60% .
U.S. May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, a three-year high driven primarily by surging energy costs linked to Middle East tensions . While core CPI held at 2.9%, the spike in headline inflation has erased expectations for 2026 rate cuts and pushed the probability of a 25bps hike to approximately 43% .
Jun09
CME FedWatch data indicates a 98.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 2026 meeting . While June is a near-certainty, market sentiment for July has shifted, with a 12.6% probability of a rate hike emerging following a 4.2% spike in May CPI and robust job growth .
Wall Street expects May 2026 CPI to hit 4.2%, a significant jump from April's 3.8% and more than double the Fed's 2% target . This surge is primarily driven by energy price spikes related to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure, alongside persistent housing and service costs . Consequently, market expectations have pivoted sharply, with traders now pricing in up to an 80% chance of a rate hike by late 2026 .
Jun07
As of June 8, 2026, CME FedWatch data indicates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in June, with only a 3% chance of a cut . For the July meeting, the probability of holding steady drops to 81.9%, while the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 15.5% .
Jun02
The US national debt has reached a record $39 trillion, with annual interest payments now exceeding $1 trillion . Concurrently, 30-year Treasury yields have surged to a 17-year high of approximately 5.2%, driven by persistent inflation, high energy prices, and massive fiscal deficits . Experts warn that the 'safe-haven' status of US debt is fading as the market demands higher premiums to absorb the relentless supply of new bonds .
Jun01
CME FedWatch data indicates a 98.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in June, with a 90.2% chance of a hold continuing into July []. While immediate rate cuts are off the table, a small 8.4% probability of a rate hike has emerged for the July meeting [].
The breakdown in U.S.-Iran peace talks has triggered a massive sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.5% and the 30-year yield reaching levels not seen since 2007 . Iran's suspension of dialogue led to a >7% surge in crude oil prices, stoking fears that energy-driven inflation will force the Fed to raise rates . Traders are now pricing in a 50% chance of a rate hike as early as October 2026 .
CME FedWatch data shows a 99.4% probability of the Fed maintaining rates in June and a 93% probability for July . This reflects a sharp pivot from earlier expectations of rate cuts to a consensus of a prolonged pause, with some officials even suggesting potential hikes if inflation persists .
