Fed-related news tracking
2026
Aug14
Following a series of weak economic indicators, including a surprise 0.6% drop in July retail sales and cooling CPI data (3.4%), the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has plummeted to 28.6% . Market consensus has shifted heavily toward a pause (67.5%), as consumer confidence and labor market data also show signs of softening .
Aug12
Latest CME FedWatch data shows a 59.9% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in September, with a 40.1% chance of a 25bps hike . This represents a major reversal from early August, when the probability of a hike was as high as 67.2% . Looking toward October, the market remains split, with a 45.3% chance of holding rates steady .
U.S. July CPI rose 3.4% YoY and 0.1% MoM, with core CPI at 2.5% YoY, both meeting expectations and confirming a two-month cooling trend . Following this and a weak non-farm payroll report, market expectations for a September rate hike dropped to 38.1%, with a 61.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged . This shift has boosted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 while providing liquidity relief to the Hong Kong tech sector .
Aug07
US non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far missing the expected 83,000 increase . Consequently, interest rate futures now price the probability of a September hike at just 44%, down from being the base case, while the probability of a pause rose to 60.4% . Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield hitting a multi-week low of 4.204% .
Aug06
Reuters has published the latest details and direct links to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet as of August 6, 2026, providing the market with updated data on the central bank's assets and liabilities .
Aug02
CME FedWatch data indicates a 73.6% probability of a 25bps rate hike in September 2026, with cumulative hike expectations rising through October . This hawkish shift follows a July FOMC meeting marked by three rare dissenting votes favoring tighter policy . Markets are now pricing in higher yields, with gold struggling at the $4,000 mark and analysts revising 10-year Treasury targets upward to 4.85% .
Jul30
CME FedWatch data indicates a sharp rise in rate hike expectations, with a 63.4% probability of a 25bps increase in September and a cumulative 73.2% chance of hikes by October . This shift follows a volatile week where September hike odds surged from 53% to over 80%, fueled by oil prices hitting $90/bbl and persistent energy inflation .
Jul29
On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting . However, the decision was marked by a significant 9-3 dissent, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan voting for a 25-basis-point increase citing inflation concerns . This meeting, under Chair Kevin Warsh, reflected heightened internal debate over supply-side pressures and a reduction in forward guidance .
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting . However, the decision was marked by a significant 9-3 vote split, with regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissenting in favor of a 25-basis point hike due to persistent inflation and geopolitical risks from the war in Iran . This represents the most significant internal dissent since 2016 .
Jul26
According to CME FedWatch, there is a 63.7% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, while the probability of a 25bps hike in September has risen to 55.2% . This shift is driven by oil prices exceeding $100, geopolitical tensions, and a resilient labor market . Market reactions include rising Treasury yields and downward pressure on gold and equities .
Jul16
CME FedWatch data shows the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July has surged to between 85.6% and 88.8% . This represents a sharp reversal from earlier in the week, when geopolitical tensions and oil price spikes pushed the implied probability of a 25bps hike to nearly 50% . The primary catalyst for this shift was the June CPI report, which came in cooler than expected at 3.5% .
Jul10
The Federal Reserve's semi-annual report describes a stable labor market where robust nominal wage growth is offset by strong productivity gains . While geopolitical tensions and tariffs have kept some inflation indicators high, the Fed noted that measures like the trimmed mean PCE have declined . The report specifically highlights AI investment as a driver for increased production capacity and efficiency .
Jul09
On July 9, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, stating that future policy depends on inflation data [citation:1, 13]. This sparked a rally in Chinese ADRs, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rising 2.05% and Alibaba surging 11.03% . Analysts suggest this reflects easing tightening expectations and a focus on Hong Kong tech valuations, which are currently at decade-low levels [citation:4, 14].
Jul07
CME FedWatch data shows a 73.3% probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July, but expectations for a September hike have surged, with a 52.7% chance of a 25bps increase and a 14.9% chance of 50bps . While soft June payroll data initially cooled hawkishness, the June FOMC minutes revealed deep concerns regarding inflation fueled by AI investment and geopolitical tensions .
The Federal Reserve has proposed amending anti-money laundering (AML) requirements to focus bank resources on high-risk activities and align with FinCEN priorities [][]. While intended to streamline oversight, the proposal faced a dissent from Governor Michael Barr over concerns that new, undefined enforcement standards could weaken the Fed's compliance capabilities [].
Jul06
As of July 7, CME FedWatch data indicates a 74.3% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, while the likelihood of a 25bps hike stands at 25.7% . However, expectations for September are shifting, with a cumulative 57% chance of a rate increase as officials cite inflation risks from AI investment and geopolitical tensions .
Jul02
U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs in June 2026, significantly missing expectations and following downward revisions to previous months [citation:33, 39, 41]. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, this was primarily due to a 0.3% drop in labor participation [citation:35, 46]. Leisure and hospitality saw their sharpest decline since 2020, even as healthcare remained a rare bright spot [citation:1, 34].
