Fed-related news tracking
2026
Feb27
Fed Overnight Reverse Repo (RRP) usage surged to $16.318 billion on Friday, Feb 27, a significant increase from the previous day's $3.796 billion . This follows a period of extremely low usage earlier in the week, with volumes hovering around $1 billion .
Feb18
The January Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed significant internal division, with officials expressing renewed concerns about inflation. While rates were held at 3.5%-3.75%, several officials discussed the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains persistently above the 2% target. Most members warned that the path to lower inflation could be slow and uneven, advocating for patience before considering rate cuts. The policy focus has shifted back towards inflation risks, with the vote to hold rates passing 10-2. Consequently, traders have pushed back expectations for the first rate cut, possibly to June.
The January Fed meeting minutes revealed that while almost all officials supported pausing rate actions, there was significant internal division on the future path of interest rates. Some members indicated that rate cuts could be appropriate later in the year if inflation declines as expected. However, a more dominant theme was caution, with several officials expressing concern about persistent inflation risks and warning that further rate hikes might be necessary if inflation remains high. The committee decided to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, marking a "hawkish pause" after three consecutive cuts. The market has subsequently pushed back expectations for rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve released its latest meeting minutes, revealing a split among officials on the future path of interest rates. While some members support further rate cuts if inflation decreases, others prefer to maintain current rates for an extended period. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% after its January meeting, emphasizing that policy is not predetermined and will adapt to incoming data. Prior to the release, markets were anticipating potential rate cuts starting in June, with expectations for two to three cuts in 2026.
Feb17
On Tuesday, February 17th, the usage of the U.S. Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility was $441 million, an increase from the previous day's $377 million. The number of counterparties was five. This level represents a significant decline from the $1.447 billion usage reported a week earlier on February 10th.
Feb14
According to CME "FedWatch" data as of February 14, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at its March meeting is 90.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 9.2%. This marks a significant shift from a week prior, on February 8, when the probability of a March cut was 23.2%. The Fed had previously signaled a pause in its rate-cutting cycle at its January meeting, holding the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% after three consecutive cuts. Officials have emphasized a data-dependent approach, with future moves contingent on changes in inflation and the labor market.
Feb13
Following a lower-than-expected January CPI report, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have solidified, with investors now betting on at least two cuts in 2026 and a rising probability of a third. The U.S. headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the 2.5% forecast, while the core CPI met expectations at 2.5%. This has driven U.S. Treasury yields to their lowest levels of the year, as the market prices in a more dovish Fed stance. Analysts at firms like Jefferies and Goldman Sachs had already been forecasting two cuts, with some noting the potential for three if the economy slows as predicted.
Following a report of lower-than-expected US inflation in January, US interest rate futures have priced in a higher probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, with the odds rising to 69% from 63% before the data release. Concurrently, the market's expectation for total rate cuts throughout 2026 increased from 58 to 61 basis points. This market reaction comes after the Fed held rates steady at its January meeting, emphasizing the need for patience and more data before easing policy.
Feb11
The Federal Reserve is re-evaluating regulatory warnings, specifically "matters requiring attention (MRAs)," issued to some banks as part of a broader overhaul of its oversight. Led by Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, this initiative aims to shift the focus from procedural issues to "material financial risks" that could harm banks if unaddressed. The goal is to reduce the regulatory burden, increase transparency, and streamline the examination process, with clear-cut cases expected to be resolved by March and more complex ones by July. State regulators have expressed optimism about the changes, hoping for reduced friction and greater efficiency, particularly for community banks.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling a relaxation of bank capital requirements, planning to drop certain non-public remedial warnings and continuing a broader easing of financial institution oversight under Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman. Specifically, examiners will re-evaluate outstanding warnings and rescind those not aligned with current priorities, focusing instead on immediate risks to banks' financial health. Furthermore, the Fed has decided to maintain current capital levels for large banks through the 2026 stress test cycle, delaying revisions to stress capital buffers until 2027 to allow for a review of its testing models.
Feb10
According to the CME "FedWatch Tool" on February 11, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 21.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 78.4%. This represents an increase in rate cut expectations from a week prior, on February 4, when the probability was just 9%. The news source that published this data also included a general warning about the risks of investing in cryptocurrencies, advising investors to conduct thorough research.
Feb09
According to CME FedWatch data as of February 10-11, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range in its March meeting is estimated to be between 78.4% and 82.3%. This follows the Fed's decision to hold rates steady in January, where the committee noted a 'solid' expansion but saw two members dissent in favor of a 25 basis point cut. Market expectations have been volatile, with the probability of a March cut rising from 9% on February 4 to over 21% by February 11. The consensus is now pointing towards a potential first cut around the June meeting.
Feb08
According to CME FedWatch data, as of February 9th, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March is 80.1%, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut at 19.9%. This reflects a shift from early February when the probability of a hold was as high as 91%. The Fed's January meeting ended a series of three consecutive rate cuts, with the committee holding rates at 3.5%-3.75% and describing economic activity as a "solid expansion" while inflation remains "elevated". Most analysts now expect the Fed to wait until at least June before considering any rate adjustments.
Feb05
For the week ending February 4, the Federal Reserve's discount window lending totaled $4.52 billion .
For the week ending February 4, the US Federal Reserve's discount window lending balance remained unchanged from the previous week at $4.52 billion.
The release of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet details occurs amid intense market discussion about its future management, particularly under potential new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Currently around $6.6 trillion, down from a peak of nearly $9 trillion, there is a debate on how to proceed. Warsh, a critic of the Fed's large asset holdings, advocates for shrinking the balance sheet, possibly in combination with interest rate cuts. Analysts are divided on the impact, with some fearing market volatility and higher long-term yields, while others believe the link between balance sheet size and economic performance is overstated. Most agree that any policy shift would be gradual to avoid disrupting markets, with significant discussions not expected until later in the year.
Expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate cut are diminishing, causing the US dollar to strengthen and exert pressure on Asian currencies. A recent CIMB report highlighted the Singapore dollar's weakening against the USD, attributing it to market anticipation of a Fed pause on rate cuts. This sentiment is reinforced by cautious statements on inflation from Fed officials like Governor Cook. The Fed's decision on January 29 to hold rates steady, the first such pause since September 2025, and the nomination of the reputedly hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair have significantly contributed to this shift, leading to a stronger dollar and a sell-off in Asian markets.
Feb04
The Federal Reserve Board has voted to finalize the 2026 stress tests, deciding to maintain the existing capital buffer requirements for large banks without any changes . This decision comes after a proposal to reform the tests, which would have allowed banks to know the criteria in advance, was criticized for potentially weakening regulatory standards . The move maintains the status quo rather than adopting a more lenient approach.
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced it will maintain current capital levels for large banks through the 2026 stress testing cycle, delaying revisions to the stress capital buffer (SCB) until 2027. The stated reason for the delay is to allow the Fed more time to review its testing models for potential flaws and enhance transparency, following a public feedback period.
Feb03
According to CME FedWatch data on February 4, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March has fallen to 9%, with the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged at 91%. This reflects a significant shift from mid-January when the probability of a March cut was over 20%. The change follows the Fed's January decision to hold rates steady and cautious commentary from officials, who have pointed to a resilient economy and the need for more data before acting. Analysts and traders now widely expect the first rate cut to be delayed until at least June.
