Fed-related news tracking
2026
May05
On May 6, 2026, the Federal Reserve accepted $1.122 billion from 6 counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repo operation []. This follows a recent peak of $8.261 billion from 12 counterparties on May 1 [] and reflects a broader trend of low facility usage compared to previous months [][].
May04
Latest CME FedWatch data indicates a 95.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with the likelihood of a hold remaining above 86% through September . This shift follows reports of surging consumer prices and ongoing inflationary pressures from the conflict in Iran . Major institutions like Morgan Stanley and Barclays have pushed their rate cut expectations into 2027, citing a resilient labor market and high PCE forecasts .
May01
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50-3.75% in an 8-4 vote, marking the highest level of dissent since 1992 . While Chair Powell presided over his final meeting, the committee cited high inflation driven by energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East as reasons for the hold . Dissenters were split, with one member seeking a cut and three others opposing any easing bias .
Apr30
CME FedWatch data shows a 95% probability of rates remaining unchanged in June 2026, with an 87.9% chance of a hold in July . This hawkish shift follows concerns over inflation impacts from the Iran conflict and a potential leadership change at the Fed . Some traders are now even pricing in a 25% chance of a rate hike by April 2027 .
On April 30, 2026, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage surged to $8.261 billion across 12 counterparties, up from just $643 million the previous day .
Apr29
The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting [][]. While the official statement retained a bias toward future rate reductions, the committee showed its largest internal division since 1992, with four members dissenting []. Officials upgraded the characterization of inflation to 'significantly high' due to energy price pressures linked to Middle East tensions [].
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in a heavily divided 8-4 vote, the largest dissent since 1992 . The dollar strengthened significantly as rising oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict boosted safe-haven demand, while the yen weakened past 160, sparking intervention fears . Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh faces a hawkish internal environment as Jerome Powell prepares to exit .
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the 3.5% to 3.75% range, signaling a cautious stance due to persistent inflation and geopolitical risks [citation:3, 13]. Market expectations for rate cuts have drastically cooled, with futures now reflecting a high probability of rates remaining unchanged through at least June, and dot plot projections shifting from three cuts down to just one for the year [citation:2, 25, 26].
The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.75% in April 2026, meeting market expectations . This 'hold' occurs against a backdrop of sticky inflation, energy price shocks, and a resilient labor market, with the Fed remaining cautious ahead of Chair Jerome Powell's departure on May 15 .
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% , but the decision was marked by Governor Stephen Milan’s preference for a rate cut [citation:1, 12]. Milan continues to advocate for 3 to 4 cuts this year, targeting a neutral rate as low as 2.5%, arguing that labor cooling and housing disinflation will outweigh temporary energy price spikes from Middle East tensions [citation:13, 24, 25].
Internal policy rifts within the Federal Reserve, led by Vice Chair Michael Barr, significantly delayed Morgan Stanley’s waiver application for organizational restructuring [][]. While the majority eventually approved the waiver, Barr warned that using low-cost federal deposit insurance to fund high-risk activities sets a dangerous precedent [][]. This friction occurs despite Morgan Stanley's strong Q1 2026 performance and its efforts to lobby for reduced capital requirements under revised Basel III rules [][].
U.S. and European futures are edging higher, driven by strong earnings expectations for mega-cap tech companies despite looming FOMC policy risks . While tech leads, the market remains cautious due to volatile oil prices and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran . Investors are specifically awaiting Jerome Powell’s press conference for clarity on future interest rate paths .
Apr27
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, citing persistent inflation (3.3% CPI) and rising energy costs driven by Middle East tensions . The decision was marked by the most divided FOMC vote since 1992, with four dissenters, while leadership remains in flux as Jerome Powell prepares for a potential transition to nominee Kevin Warsh amid ongoing legal and political challenges .
On April 27, 2026, usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility rose to $363 million from $82 million the previous session . This follows a long-term decline from much higher levels, such as $5.67 billion in early 2026 .
Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% during this week's meeting, with a potential 25bps rate cut projected for September 2026 . Despite a 100% market probability of a hold this week due to 3.3% inflation, Barclays anticipates that cooling demand will eventually allow for policy easing .
Apr23
CME FedWatch tools indicate a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in April 2026 [][]. This consensus follows a 3.3% March CPI print and reflects a cautious 'wait-and-see' stance from Fed officials amid geopolitical tensions and leadership uncertainty [][][].
Apr22
On April 23, 2026, the Federal Reserve accepted $538 million from 16 counterparties in a fixed-rate reverse repo operation . This follows a trend of low usage throughout April, with previous sessions seeing volumes between $223 million and $507 million .
On Wednesday, April 22, 2026, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage dropped to $538 million from $807 million the previous day . This continues a trend of minimal usage, with recent figures fluctuating between $137 million and $503 million over the past week . The decline from much higher levels earlier in the year reflects shifting liquidity dynamics and stable funding markets .
Apr18
As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in mid-May, a political and legal conflict is brewing over his succession, with the Trump administration threatening his dismissal if he remains on the board. This leadership uncertainty coincides with the Fed adopting a cautious "wait and see" approach to monetary policy. The ongoing Middle East conflict is creating a supply shock, pushing inflation higher while threatening economic growth, leading to concerns of stagflation. Despite some internal division and rising market expectations for rate cuts, Powell and other officials have stated that current policy is in a "good place" and they will not cut rates without progress on inflation, effectively putting policy on hold.
Apr17
Federal Reserve Governor Waller announced the Fed will closely monitor employment data for signs of increased pressure, reflecting a commitment to adjust monetary policy based on evolving economic conditions. This comes after the March non-farm payrolls report showed a stronger-than-expected 178K job gain and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, which had previously suggested the economy did not need stimulus. Other officials like Mary Daly have also emphasized looking beyond headline numbers to a broader set of indicators to gauge labor market health. This heightened focus on potential stress points, amid concerns about data accuracy and stagflation risks from geopolitical tensions, signals a nuanced approach to future policy decisions.
