Fed-related news tracking
2026
Feb05
Expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate cut are diminishing, causing the US dollar to strengthen and exert pressure on Asian currencies. A recent CIMB report highlighted the Singapore dollar's weakening against the USD, attributing it to market anticipation of a Fed pause on rate cuts. This sentiment is reinforced by cautious statements on inflation from Fed officials like Governor Cook. The Fed's decision on January 29 to hold rates steady, the first such pause since September 2025, and the nomination of the reputedly hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair have significantly contributed to this shift, leading to a stronger dollar and a sell-off in Asian markets.
Feb04
The Federal Reserve Board has voted to finalize the 2026 stress tests, deciding to maintain the existing capital buffer requirements for large banks without any changes . This decision comes after a proposal to reform the tests, which would have allowed banks to know the criteria in advance, was criticized for potentially weakening regulatory standards . The move maintains the status quo rather than adopting a more lenient approach.
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced it will maintain current capital levels for large banks through the 2026 stress testing cycle, delaying revisions to the stress capital buffer (SCB) until 2027. The stated reason for the delay is to allow the Fed more time to review its testing models for potential flaws and enhance transparency, following a public feedback period.
Feb03
According to CME FedWatch data on February 4, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March has fallen to 9%, with the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged at 91%. This reflects a significant shift from mid-January when the probability of a March cut was over 20%. The change follows the Fed's January decision to hold rates steady and cautious commentary from officials, who have pointed to a resilient economy and the need for more data before acting. Analysts and traders now widely expect the first rate cut to be delayed until at least June.
Feb02
The Federal Reserve is grappling with the dual challenge of persistent acyclical inflation and a cooling job market. While some officials remain focused on the 2% inflation target, influential members like Governor Waller and Vice Chair Bowman are increasingly concerned about the weakening labor market, with Waller citing a "significant risk" of a more severe downturn. The labor market's weakness may be understated by official data due to various reporting issues, and December's non-farm payrolls showed only a meager 50,000 job additions. This internal division and deteriorating employment data have shifted market expectations for a rate cut towards mid-year, though a more dovish faction appears ready to act sooner to support employment.
Feb01
According to the CME "FedWatch" tool on February 2, 2026, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is only 15.3%, with an 84.7% chance of holding steady. For the April meeting, the probability of a 25 bps cut is 29%, while the chance of rates remaining unchanged is 68%. This reflects a broader market shift, with many analysts now forecasting the first rate cut will occur in June 2026, pushed back from earlier predictions of March due to resilient economic data and sticky inflation.
Jan29
On Thursday, January 29, the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility increased to $2.852 billion across 4 counterparties, up from $1.103 billion on the previous trading day.
The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to pause its rate cuts, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged, a move that was widely anticipated by the market. Consequently, U.S. stock indices showed a muted reaction with minimal changes. However, other markets experienced greater volatility, with shifts in Treasury yields, gold prices, and the U.S. dollar index. The Fed's statement noted that economic activity is expanding at a "solid" pace, an upgrade from the previous "moderate" assessment, and emphasized that future decisions will be data-dependent. Despite the surface calm in equities, some analysts point to significant underlying volatility in individual stocks.
The US Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range, pausing after a series of cuts, citing an improved economic outlook which it now describes as expanding at a "robust" pace. While two officials dissented in favor of a cut, the market now largely expects the Fed to hold rates until at least June. This decision may give the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) flexibility to hold its rate in February but consider cuts later in 2026, pending fiscal signals from the upcoming budget. The Fed's future path is uncertain, with political pressure and the end of Chairman Powell's term in May adding complexity.
Jan28
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range, halting a series of three consecutive rate cuts. The decision was passed with a 10-2 vote. The policy statement reflected a more optimistic economic outlook, describing activity as expanding at a "solid" pace and removing language about downside risks to the labor market. This signals a more balanced approach to the Fed's dual mandate. While inflation is still considered "slightly high," the committee's tone suggests no immediate urgency for further cuts, with markets now anticipating the next move is unlikely before June.
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range, a move that was widely expected and ends a series of three consecutive rate cuts from late 2025. The accompanying statement noted a shift in economic assessment from "moderate" to "solid" expansion and removed language highlighting downside risks to the labor market, indicating a more balanced view on its dual mandate. Despite two officials dissenting in favor of a rate cut, the market now anticipates the Fed will remain on hold until at least June.
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing a series of three consecutive rate cuts from the previous year, a move that was in line with market expectations. The accompanying statement signaled a more optimistic economic outlook, describing economic activity as expanding at a 'solid' pace and removing previous language about downside risks to the labor market, indicating a more balanced view of its dual mandate. As a result, market participants now anticipate the Fed will not adjust rates again before June. The decision was not unanimous, with two officials dissenting.
Jan22
Recent robust US employment and consumption data have reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in the short term, pushing back projections for rate cuts until later in 2026. Data showed a stable labor market with a smaller-than-expected increase in initial jobless claims, while consumer spending remained resilient. In response, US Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield hitting a high for the previous year. The probability of the Fed maintaining current rates at its January meeting is now seen as high as 95%, with expectations for a first cut pushed to June or later.
Jan18
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 5%, with a 95% chance of rates remaining unchanged. For the March meeting, the probability of a 25 bps cut is 20.7%, while the likelihood of holding rates steady is 78.4%.
Jan17
The Federal Reserve will inject $55.36 billion in liquidity into the market over the next three weeks . This follows significant liquidity provisions in late December 2025, including a record $74.6 billion injection on the last trading day, which were largely seen as routine year-end operations to manage settlement pressures . However, these continued injections are contributing to a market narrative of 'stealth easing' . The Fed's policy focus has shifted towards ensuring financial stability and managing liquidity, even as it faces political pressure and concerns over high asset valuations . Some market participants believe these actions will fuel further asset price increases and potentially lead to a short squeeze .
Jan15
The Federal Reserve's discount window lending balance fell to $5.37 billion for the week ending January 14, down from $7.23 billion the previous week. This continues a downward trend from the week ending January 7, when the balance was $7.23 billion, and the week ending December 31, when it stood at $9.66 billion.
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet update shows a continued reduction, with the total size dropping to approximately $6.57 trillion in January 2026 from a previous $6.64 trillion . This continues the trend of quantitative tightening (QT) from a peak of around $9.1 trillion in 2022 . The balance sheet had fallen to $6.54 trillion by the end of December 2025 . This ongoing reduction occurs as Fed officials like Philadelphia Fed President Harker signal potential future rate cuts contingent on cooling inflation , and after the release of the latest Beige Book .
On Thursday, January 15, 2026, the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) facility fell to $2.003 billion with 6 counterparties, a significant decrease from the previous day's $3.223 billion. This drop follows a period of elevated year-end demand for the Fed's liquidity tools, such as the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), which saw record borrowing of $74.6 billion on the last day of 2025 to manage year-end liquidity needs. The normalization of RRP usage indicates that these temporary pressures have subsided.
In the week ending January 14, U.S. seasonally adjusted commercial paper outstanding fell by $1.5 billion. However, the non-seasonally adjusted figure, which some analysts view as more reliable, surged by $44.6 billion to $1.412 trillion. This included an $18.5 billion increase in foreign financial commercial paper.
Jan14
According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its current interest rate in the January meeting is 95%, with only a 5% chance of a 25 basis point cut. This consensus has strengthened from around 83% in early January. The shift is largely due to robust economic data, particularly a surprise drop in initial jobless claims, which reinforces a high-rate environment and has pushed market expectations for the first rate cut to June. Consequently, the probability of a rate cut by March has fallen to 26%.
