Optimism continues to soar! Options traders are betting that Bitcoin will surge to $50,000 by January next year.
Options traders predict that Bitcoin will soar to $50,000 before January next year, and market observers believe that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will eventually approve a Bitcoin spot ETF. The price of Bitcoin has already risen by over 60%, and the total trading volume of cryptocurrencies has reached its highest level this year. The cryptocurrency industry is experiencing a rebound, and investors are still making leveraged bets through derivatives. In addition, cash-settled options and futures contracts can help traders execute strategies without dealing with specific cryptocurrency issues.
Zhitong App has learned that options traders are betting that Bitcoin will surge to $50,000 before January next year. Many market observers expect that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will finally approve a Bitcoin spot ETF by then.
According to data compiled by Deribit, the largest cryptocurrency options exchange, this is the price level of the largest open interest contracts (i.e., the total number of outstanding contracts) for Bitcoin call options expiring on January 26.
The last time Bitcoin reached $50,000 was in December 2021. At that time, digital assets were falling from their historical highs as the Federal Reserve began to unwind record stimulus measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, with the market expecting the Fed to adjust its monetary policy next year and the approval of a Bitcoin ETF almost certain, the cryptocurrency industry is witnessing a remarkable rebound.
"Bullish sentiment is on the rise," said Luuk Strijers, Chief Commercial Officer of Deribit.
Since mid-October, the price of Bitcoin has risen by over 60%, with speculation rife that the SEC is about to approve ETF applications from asset management giants such as BlackRock. As of the time of writing, the token's price is hovering below $44,000.
Data from research firm CCData shows that the total trading volume of spot and derivative transactions on centralized exchanges in November increased by 40.7% to $3.61 trillion, the highest level since March this year.
Derivative activities such as options and futures continue to dominate cryptocurrency trading, as they remain one of the few ways for investors to leverage their bets after a series of major cryptocurrency lending institutions collapsed in 2022. In addition, cash-settled options and futures contracts can help traders execute strategies without dealing with specific issues related to cryptocurrency custody.
From the end of March to early October, cryptocurrency prices remained sluggish as a series of industry bankruptcies and scandals gradually subsided.
Jaime Baeza, Founder and CEO of cryptocurrency hedge fund AnB Investments, said, "For most of this year, volatility has been declining. The environment has been characterized by low volatility, reduced trading volume, lower interest rates in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, and a decrease in overall interest in the industry."
Now, with the possible launch of a Bitcoin ETF, the appetite for risk is returning to the broader financial market, and traders expect increased interest in cryptocurrencies.
Greg Magadini, Head of Derivatives at Amberdata, said, "This year, as Bitcoin has risen, volatility has followed suit. Therefore, the ongoing bull market may bring more volatility in the short to medium term.