PPI boosts expectations of interest rate cuts, US bonds surge, disappointing earnings reports lead to a decline in the Dow, Bitcoin "bungee jumps" on the second day of ETF listing, and gold sees a dramatic turnaround in a week.

Wallstreetcn
2024.01.12 23:21
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The three major US stock indexes fell during midday trading but ended the week with gains. The SPDR S&P 500 rebounded to a two-year high at the close, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 100 points. UnitedHealth, after its earnings report, dropped more than 3%, becoming the biggest loser among the components. Tesla also fell more than 3%, leading the decline in the SPDR S&P 500 sector. Microsoft closed at a historic high, surpassing Apple in market value. NVIDIA ended its six-week rally, falling from its all-time high, but still rose 11% for the week. JPMorgan Chase initially rose more than 3% after its earnings report but then turned lower, while Bank of America fell more than 1% and Citigroup closed up 1%. Bitcoin fell at least 5% on the second day of trading on the SPDR S&P 500. Chinese concept stocks retreated, falling more than 1%, with Baidu down 7% and Dada Nexus up nearly 5%, but still down 53% for the week. After the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), the two-year US Treasury yield plunged 17 basis points to an eight-month low during intraday trading, and the US dollar index briefly turned lower. Bitcoin fell below $44,000 during intraday trading, dropping more than $5,000 from the two-year high set on the first day of trading on the SPDR S&P 500. Offshore renminbi fell more than 200 points, breaking below 7.19, hitting a four-week low. The conflict in the Red Sea escalated, causing crude oil to rise more than 4% during intraday trading, but most of the gains were later given up, resulting in a weekly decline despite a two-day rebound. Gold had its largest increase in four weeks since the Federal Reserve meeting, reversing four consecutive declines, and rose more than 2% during intraday trading. US natural gas has risen more than 10% every week since the beginning of the year. London copper hit a four-week low, falling for the fourth consecutive week.

Recently, there is good news that inflation is still declining from the perspective of producer prices. The December PPI in the United States increased by 1% YoY, which is lower than expected. MoM, it also decreased by 0.1%, not the expected 0.1% growth predicted by analysts. It has not increased for three consecutive months, marking the longest period of stabilization since 2020. The YoY growth rate of core PPI unexpectedly slowed down to 1.8% in December, the lowest growth rate in three years. MoM, it did not accelerate as expected, but remained flat at zero growth, the same as in November.

After the unexpectedly warm CPI data released on Thursday dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, the PPI data revived expectations. Investors have started to increase their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in March. According to the tools provided by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of an interest rate cut in March expected by the futures market rose from 73% on Thursday to 81% on Friday. After the release of the PPI, US Treasury prices jumped and yields plunged. The yield of the two-year US Treasury bond, which is sensitive to interest rates, fell nearly 17 basis points from the daily high, reaching its lowest level since May 2023. US stock futures rose in the short term, with major US stock indices opening higher.

After the release of the PPI on Friday, the market's expectation probability of a rate cut by the Fed in March rose to over 80%.

The market expects a total interest rate cut of 170 basis points for the full year of 2024, reaching a record high. The pricing fully reflects six interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, and the probability of a seventh interest rate cut is 65%.

Major stock indices have all turned downward at some point during the trading session. Although Microsoft continues to reach new historical highs, surpassing Apple as the company with the highest market value, the decline in some technology stocks such as Tesla and Nvidia has suppressed the overall market. The earnings season has begun to affect some leading stocks. The healthcare giant UnitedHealth's medical cost ratio (MCR) for the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, reaching 85%, causing concerns among investors that medical costs may continue to rise throughout 2024. UnitedHealth became the biggest decliner among the Dow Jones constituents. Wall Street giants' earnings reports are mixed with joy and worry: JPMorgan Chase's net interest income reached a new quarterly high, with annual revenue and profit hitting new highs. Bank of America still has a floating loss of nearly 100 billion in bonds on its books. Citigroup's fourth-quarter results turned from profit to loss, announcing a layoff of 20,000 employees. Wells Fargo's fourth-quarter profit exceeded expectations, but warned that net interest income may decrease by as much as 9% in 2024. The financial sector turned downward during the trading session, failing to boost the overall market. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index reversed its gains and turned lower after the release of the PPI data. The US stock market rebounded during the trading session and closed roughly flat compared to a week ago. Cryptocurrencies continued to fluctuate. After the listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF in the US, the South Korean financial regulatory agency issued an official response, warning domestic securities firms that engaging in brokerage activities for any foreign-listed Bitcoin spot ETF may be illegal. Bitcoin accelerated its decline during the trading session, falling below $44,000, a drop of over $5,000 from the two-year high reached on the first day of the ETF listing on Thursday, erasing the gains from earlier in the week driven by optimism surrounding the ETF listing.

In the commodity market, the escalation of the Red Sea conflict boosted international crude oil prices, which rose by more than 4% at one point during the trading session. Safe-haven asset gold also staged a strong comeback, with gold futures rising by over 2% and closing up by over 1%, marking the best single-day performance since the dovish turn signaled by the Federal Reserve's meeting last month. According to CCTV reports, the Houthi armed group in Yemen confirmed that multiple locations in Yemen were hit by US and UK airstrikes. Its spokesperson stated that the airstrikes lacked legitimate reasons and that the Houthi armed group would continue to target vessels related to Israel. After the airstrikes, several oil tankers changed course in the Red Sea, intensifying supply concerns. Analysts believe that if the conflict spreads, it could threaten trade along the entire Persian Gulf route, leading to further increases in oil prices.

Gold experienced a dramatic turnaround this week, falling continuously in the first four days and then staging a strong rebound on Friday, erasing the losses from the previous four days and reaching a high point in over a week. On the other hand, crude oil gradually gave back most of its gains during Friday's trading session, failing to reverse the downward trend for the entire week despite the rebound on Thursday and Friday. Crude oil continued to receive upward momentum from the tense situation in the Middle East this week. However, Saudi Arabia's unexpected downward adjustment of crude oil prices for Asia and a larger-than-expected increase in US oil inventories last week have strengthened concerns about demand prospects, suppressing the rise in oil prices.

Natural gas in the United States has maintained its excellent performance since the beginning of the year, with double-digit gains every week in the first two weeks. Texas is about to face severe snowstorm weather, and natural gas futures accelerated their rise on Friday, with spot gas prices in the region skyrocketing. On the same day, the media learned that the spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub, a critical natural gas delivery hub in Louisiana, surged by over 400% this weekend.

UnitedHealth leads the decline in the Dow, Tesla weighs on the S&P, Microsoft surpasses Apple in market value, Citigroup rises after earnings report, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Vanguard fall

The three major US stock indices opened higher but then fluctuated lower during the morning session. The Nasdaq Composite Index initially rose by 0.5%, and the S&P 500 Index initially rose by nearly 0.5%. However, they both turned lower multiple times during the morning session. At the lowest point in the morning session, the Nasdaq fell by nearly 0.3% and the S&P fell by over 0.2%. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened higher but then fluctuated lower. It initially rose by over 110 points, or 0.3%, but turned lower less than half an hour after the opening, falling by over 240 points and over 0.6% at the lowest point in the morning session. The decline narrowed during the afternoon session. In the end, only the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed lower among the three major indices, falling by 118.04 points or 0.31% to 37,592.98 points. This marked a decline from the two-day consecutive record high since January 2nd. The Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq) closed slightly higher by 0.02% at 14,972.76 points, stabilizing at the closing high since December 29th after a relatively flat performance on Thursday. The S&P 500 (S&P) closed up 0.08% at 4,783.83 points, surpassing the closing high set on January 4th, 2022.

The small-cap Russell 2000, which is dominated by value stocks, fell by 0.23%, marking a two-day decline and reaching the lowest closing level since December 13th. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 0.07%, extending its six-day winning streak to the highest level since December 28th. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index, rose by nearly 0.3%, marking a six-day consecutive increase and a three-day record closing high. It recorded a cumulative increase of 5.3% this week.

All three major indices recorded cumulative gains this week, mainly driven by a sharp rise on Monday. The Nasdaq, which rose by 2.2% on Monday, recorded a cumulative increase of 3.09%, marking the largest weekly gain in nearly two months since the week of November 23rd. The S&P, which rose by 1.41% on Monday, recorded a cumulative increase of 1.84%. The Dow, which rose by over 200 points on Monday, recorded a cumulative increase of 0.34%. The Nasdaq 100, which rose by 3.23%, rebounded along with the other indices after recording a black start to the year in 2024. The Russell 2000, which had declined for two consecutive weeks, recorded a marginal cumulative decline of 0.01%, almost unchanged from a week ago.

Among the Dow components, UnitedHealth Group (UNH), which announced its earnings report, fell by over 4% in early trading and closed down by nearly 3.4%, leading the decline. Walgreens, a pharmacy chain giant, fell by nearly 3.2%. Boeing fell by 2.2% as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) plans to strengthen its oversight of its production and manufacturing.

Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, four sectors closed lower on Friday. The non-essential consumer goods sector, which includes Tesla, led the decline, falling by nearly 1.1%. The healthcare sector, which includes UnitedHealth Group, fell by 0.3%. The financial sector, which includes JPMorgan Chase and other major banks, turned lower in early trading and closed down by over 0.2%, while the industrial sector saw a slight decline. Among the seven sectors that closed higher, the energy sector, supported by a sharp rise in crude oil, led the gains with an increase of nearly 1.3%, while the other sectors rose by less than 0.8%.

This week, a total of four sectors recorded cumulative declines. The energy sector fell by approximately 2.4%, the utilities sector fell by nearly 1.9%, the materials sector fell by 1%, and the financial sector fell by 0.5%. Chip stocks such as NVIDIA and the IT sector, which includes Microsoft, recorded a cumulative increase of approximately 4.9%. The communication services sector, which includes Google and Meta, rose by over 3.4%. Both the non-essential and essential consumer goods sectors rose by over 1%.

Most of the major U.S. indices recorded cumulative gains this week, with the Nasdaq rising by over 3%, marking the largest weekly gain since late November. The small-cap indices remained relatively flat. In the S&P sector ETFs, the energy sector performed the worst this week, while the IT sector performed the best.

Most leading technology stocks closed higher, but Tesla continued to decline. After launching the first car price reduction of the new year in China and suspending most of its production at the Berlin factory due to the Red Sea situation, Tesla fell 4.4% at midday, closing down nearly 3.7%. It has fallen for four consecutive days, hitting a new low since November 10th, with a cumulative decline of 7.8% this week, and a four-week decline.

Among the six major FAANMG technology stocks, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, rose 1.3%, rebounding to a closing high since September 2021. Microsoft rose 1%, rising for five consecutive days and reaching a new closing high for three consecutive days. Apple, known as the "prophet," and analyst Guo Mingchi said that Vision Pro has pre-sold 60,000 to 80,000 units and is expected to be "sold out." Apple rose 0.6% at the beginning of the trading session, fluctuating several times during the session, including being listed as the latest short-selling target by Hedgeye, with a predicted 30% drop in Apple's stock price. It finally closed up nearly 0.2% after falling on Thursday. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, which fell on Thursday, rose 0.4%, hitting a closing high since February 2022. Amazon, which rose for five consecutive days to a closing high, fell nearly 0.4% on Thursday. After the media reported that its advertising tiering plan has exceeded 23 million monthly active users, Netflix's momentum diminished and it fell slightly, stabilizing at the closing high since January 2022.

All of the above-mentioned technology stocks have risen this week, with Amazon up nearly 6.5%, Meta up 6.4%, Microsoft up 5.6%, Alphabet up 5.1%, Netflix up 3.8%, Apple up 2.6%, ranking last in terms of growth rate, failing to offset the nearly 6% decline from last week when it was downgraded by institutions consecutively.

By the close of Friday, Microsoft's market value reached $2.89 trillion, surpassing Apple's $2.87 trillion. Since November 17, 2021, Microsoft has become the highest-valued company in the US stock market, surpassing Apple for the first time.

Among the seven major technology stocks, Tesla performed the worst this week, and Microsoft's market value surpassed Apple's on Friday.

Chip stocks, which rebounded overall on Thursday, fell back. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX fell by about 0.4% in early trading, both falling from the closing high set on Thursday, December 29th. They rose 3% and 2.9% respectively this week. In the IT sector of the S&P 500, Nvidia maintained a downward trend in early trading, falling nearly 0.9% at the lowest point of the day and closing down 0.2%. This ended a six-day consecutive increase and marked the first day in the past five trading days that it did not set a new intraday and closing high. However, it still recorded a cumulative increase of 11.4% for the week. Intel and Micron Technology both fell more than 1%, while AMD dropped 1%.

Among the seven major tech stocks including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla, there was a significant overall increase for the week, achieving the largest weekly gain since November 23rd. This directly contributed to the Nasdaq's best weekly performance during the same period.

Microsoft, Nvidia, and other seven major tech stocks achieved the largest weekly gain since late November.

Banking stocks continued to decline. The overall banking industry index, KBW Bank Index (BKX), closed down nearly 1.1%, marking a four-day consecutive decline to the lowest level since December 20th. It recorded a cumulative decline of 3.1% for the week. The regional banking index, KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX), closed down 0.9%. The regional banking stock ETF, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), closed down 1.3%. Both indices have been declining for two consecutive days to the lowest level since December 12th, with cumulative declines of 2% and 2.8% respectively for the week.

Among the major banks that announced their earnings reports, JPMorgan Chase initially rose 3.5% but turned negative in early trading and closed down 0.7%. Citigroup initially rose more than 3%, then turned negative in early trading, and rose again in the afternoon, closing up 1%. Bank of America opened with a decline of over 2% and closed down more than 1%. Wells Fargo opened low and continued to decline, closing down 3.3%. Among the major banks that have not yet announced their earnings reports, Morgan Stanley closed down about 0.9% and Goldman Sachs fell 0.5%.

Most major banks that announced their earnings reports on Friday saw their stock prices decline.

Overall, popular Chinese concept stocks experienced a decline. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed down nearly 1.5%, falling after ending a five-day consecutive decline on Thursday, with a cumulative decline of 3.9% for the week. The Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ both closed down about 0.8% and 1% respectively. New energy vehicle companies also experienced a collective decline. At the close, Li Auto fell more than 4%, XPeng Motors fell nearly 4%, and NIO fell more than 3%. Among other individual stocks, Bitcoin mining giant Canaan fell nearly 9%, while its counterpart Ebang International fell over 15%. Baidu fell nearly 3%, JD.com and Bilibili both fell more than 1%, Pinduoduo fell 1%, Alibaba fell nearly 0.8%, while Dada Group rose nearly 5%. NetEase rose 0.7% and Tencent rose nearly 0.4%, showing a positive trend for the week after Dada Group's announcement of a potential overstatement of its 2023 advertising revenue, which caused a 53% cumulative decline for the week. In the volatile individual stock market, as tensions escalate in the Red Sea and multiple oil tankers change course, ZIM, a US-listed shipping company, initially rose 12% in early trading but fell 1.9% at midday. With stricter production supervision ahead for Boeing, aviation stocks declined across the board, with United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) falling by 10.6%, 9.5%, and 9% respectively. After a 6.7% drop on Thursday, Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, further declined by nearly 7.4%.

In addition, the Bitcoin spot ETF, which also experienced a high and then a decline on its first day of trading, saw a collective drop on the second day, closing down at least 5%. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC Fund (GBTC), which transitioned to an ETF under Grayscale, fell by approximately 5.2%, while iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) under BlackRock dropped by 6.2%.

The US PPI data has rekindled hopes of interest rate cuts and also helped drive a rebound in the pan-European stock indices, which had declined for three consecutive days. The STOXX Europe 600 index not only rebounded from the low closing level set on Thursday, but also achieved the largest daily gain in two weeks since early 2024. Major European stock indices rose on Friday, with German, French, Italian, and Spanish stocks all rebounding after three days of decline, as did British stocks.

In terms of sectors, the industrial sector led the gains with a 1.8% increase, followed by the media sector with a 1.7% increase. Retail, interest rate-sensitive real estate, and technology sectors all rose by more than 1%. In terms of individual stocks, Burberry, a British luxury retailer, initially fell by approximately 14.6% during intraday trading due to deteriorating profit warnings and downward guidance, marking the largest intraday decline in a decade, and closed down 5.5%. As the Red Sea conflict threatens the current situation, two shipping giants, Maersk and Hapag Lloyd, fell by 0.4% and 2.1% respectively. On the other hand, Airbus rose by 3.7% after announcing a record high aircraft order and confirming an 11% increase in delivery volume in 2023.

With a strong rebound on Friday, the STOXX Europe 600 index recorded a slight cumulative increase for the week, barely ending the seven-week consecutive rise that occurred last week. Stock indices in various countries experienced mixed performances throughout the week, with the German stock market rebounding from last week's decline, the French stock market ending a three-week decline, the Italian stock market rising for two consecutive weeks, and the British stock market declining for two consecutive weeks. The Spanish stock market, which rebounded last week, also declined.

In terms of sectors, with the support of the strong rally on Friday, the industrial and media sectors both recorded a cumulative increase of over 2% for the week. The technology sector rose by more than 1% this week, while the real estate sector reversed its cumulative decline from the previous four days and turned positive. The healthcare sector, which led the gains in the past two weeks, rose by more than 1% this week. However, the banking sector, which had a strong increase of over 2% last week, experienced a cumulative decline of 2.7% this week. This was mainly due to a 1.9% drop on Thursday. The oil and gas sector also declined by 3.5% this week, primarily due to a 2.7% drop on Monday following Saudi Arabia's reduction in crude oil prices.

Two-year German bond yields fell more than 10 basis points in a day

European government bond prices, which have been falling for several days, rebounded, with yields following the decline in US bonds. At the end of the bond market, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark government bond closed at 3.79%, down about 5 basis points during the day; the yield on the 2-year UK bond closed at 4.14%, down about 9 basis points during the day; the yield on the 10-year benchmark German government bond closed at 2.18%, down about 5 basis points during the day, after briefly rising above 2.22% before the release of the US PPI, hitting a daily high, and then quickly falling after the release; the yield on the 2-year German bond closed at 2.51%, down about 11 basis points during the day.

European bonds performed differently this week, with short-term bond yields falling and long-term bond yields continuing to rise, but the increase was far less than last week, reflecting investors' digestion of the European Central Bank's interest rate cut expectations. The yield on the 10-year UK bond, which rose by about 26 basis points last week, increased by about 1 basis point in total; the yield on the 10-year German bond, which rose by about 13 basis points last week, increased by about 3 basis points, rising for three consecutive weeks; while the yield on the 2-year UK bond decreased by about 7 basis points, the yield on the 2-year German bond decreased by about 5 basis points during the same period.

The yield on the 10-year US benchmark government bond reached 4.0% before the release of the US PPI, hitting a daily high, and quickly fell below 4.0% after the release. In the early trading session, the US stock market fell below 3.92%, hitting a low since January 4th, down about 9 basis points from the daily high, and closed at about 3.94% at the end of the bond market, down nearly 3 basis points during the day, with a cumulative decrease of about 11 basis points this week.

The yield on the 2-year US bond, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, rose above 4.28% at the opening of European stocks, hitting a daily high, and rose about 4 basis points during the day. After the release of the PPI, it quickly erased all gains and fell below 4.20%. In the early trading session, the US stock market fell below 4.12%, hitting a low since May 23, 2023, down nearly 17 basis points from the daily high, and closed at about 4.14% at the end of the bond market, down nearly 11 basis points during the day, with a cumulative decrease of about 24 basis points this week, erasing the increase of about 13 basis points last week. Like the yield on the 10-year US bond, it has fallen for two consecutive days and for the fourth day this week, and it is the fourth week of decline in the past five weeks.

Yields on US bonds of various maturities fell overall this week, with short-term bond yields falling the most

After the PPI, the US dollar index briefly fell, and Bitcoin fell below $44,000, down more than $5,000 from the high on the day of the ETF listing

The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against six major currencies including the euro, approached 102.60, hitting a daily high before the release of the US PPI, and rose nearly 0.3% during the day. After the release of the PPI, it gave up its gains, and the US stock market fell before the market opened. In the early trading session, the US stock market fell below 102.10, hitting a daily low, down nearly 0.2% during the day. It then rebounded and turned higher towards the end of the early trading session, maintaining its upward momentum during the afternoon session, but never came close to the intraday high of 103.10 reached on Friday, December 13, since then. At the close of the US stock market on Friday, the US dollar index was above 102.40, rising nearly 0.2% during the day, marking the second consecutive day of gains this week after Tuesday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US dollar against ten other currencies, saw a slight increase, avoiding a second consecutive day of decline. Both the US dollar index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index have seen slight gains this week, barely extending their two-week winning streak.

Among non-US currencies, the Japanese yen rebounded during the trading session, moving away from its recent lows. Prior to the release of the US PPI data, the USD/JPY pair approached 145.60, hitting a daily high. However, after the release of the PPI data, it quickly reversed and fell. In early trading, the USD/JPY pair dropped below 144.40, hitting a daily low and falling more than 0.6% during the day. It also retreated from the intraday high reached on Thursday, when it broke through 146.40, the highest level since December 11. At the close of the US stock market, it fell more than 0.2%.

After the release of the US PPI data, the euro quickly rebounded against the US dollar. In early trading, the EUR/USD pair approached 1.0990, hitting a daily high. However, it fell during the afternoon session and closed down nearly 0.2% at the end of the US stock market. The British pound also rebounded against the US dollar after the release of the US PPI data. In early trading, the GBP/USD pair approached 1.2770, but fell during the afternoon session and failed to reach the high of 1.2780 reached in early trading on Friday, the highest level since December 28. At the close of the US stock market, it fell more than 0.1%.

In the Asian session, the offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar hit a daily high of 7.1656. European stocks fell before the market opened and continued to decline. In the US session, the USD/CNH pair fell below 7.19 and dropped to 7.1930, hitting the lowest level since December 13, which was created on Wednesday. It fell 179 points during the day, and fell 274 points from the high. At 5:59 am Beijing time on January 13, the offshore renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 7.1893 yuan, down 142 points from the end of trading in New York on Thursday. After two consecutive days of rebound, it fell this week, with a cumulative decline of 266 points and a two-week decline.

Bitcoin (BTC) accelerated its decline after the opening of the US stock market on Friday. During the US session, it fell below $44,000, dropping to below $43,300, a decrease of more than $5,000 and more than 10% from the high of $49,000 reached on Thursday, the highest level since December 2021. At the close of the US stock market, it hovered above $43,700, falling more than 5% in the past 24 hours and about 0.5% in the past seven days.

Crude oil rose more than 4% during the trading session, but still ended the week with a slight decline. When European stocks hit a daily high, US WTI crude oil rose above $75.20, up 4.5% during the day, while Brent crude oil rose above $80.70, up 4.3% during the day. However, it gradually gave back most of its gains afterwards.

Bitcoin ended the week with a slight cumulative decline, erasing the gains made in the past few days due to the "fake imperial edict" by hackers claiming that the ETF was approved, the expectation of the ETF actually being approved, and the listing of the ETF.

International crude oil futures maintained an upward trend throughout Friday, with US WTI crude oil rising above $75.20 during European stock trading, up 4.5% during the day, and Brent crude oil rising above $80.70, up 4.3% during the day. However, it gradually gave back most of its gains. In the end, WTI February crude oil futures rose 0.92% to $72.68 per barrel, while Brent March crude oil futures rose 1.14% to $78.29 per barrel, both reaching the highest level in the past week.

This week, US oil fell by 1.53% and Brent oil fell by 0.6%, falling back after a rebound last week, marking the second consecutive weekly decline in the past five weeks. This week is the ninth consecutive week of decline in crude oil prices since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The decline this week was mainly due to a sharp drop on Monday, with US oil falling by nearly 4.12%, the largest closing decline since November 16, and Brent oil falling by 3.35%, the largest drop since December 12.

US WTI crude oil rose sharply and then fell back on Friday, rising by more than 4% and closing up less than 1% for the week.

US gasoline and natural gas futures both rose for two consecutive days. NYMEX February gasoline futures rose 0.28% to $2.1203 per gallon, hitting a high since January 3 for two consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of about 0.7% for the week, ending a three-week decline; NYMEX February natural gas futures rose by about 6.97% to $3.3130 per million British thermal units, hitting a closing high since November 13, and rising by about 9% during the day, with a cumulative increase of 14.52% for the week, rising for four consecutive weeks, with a weekly increase of more than 10% in the past two weeks.

London copper falls for four consecutive weeks, gold achieves the largest increase since the Fed meeting, reversing four consecutive declines

Most London base metal futures fell on Friday. London copper fell for two consecutive days, hitting a new four-week low, and fell for the tenth time in the past 11 trading days. London aluminum, which rebounded on Wednesday, fell back to a low in the past four weeks. London lead temporarily bid farewell to the high since the two consecutive gains in early December. London nickel fell slightly for two consecutive days, approaching the low since April 2021 created last Thursday. London zinc rebounded for two consecutive days, continuing to rise from the low in the past four weeks. London tin rose for three consecutive weeks to a high in the past week.

Most base metals fell this week, with London aluminum leading the decline, falling by more than 2%, and London zinc and London nickel falling by nearly 2% and nearly 0.2% respectively for two consecutive weeks. London copper fell by nearly 1.5%, falling for four consecutive weeks, while London lead rose by 0.7%, rising for two consecutive weeks and performing better than other metals for two consecutive weeks. London tin rose slightly last week after falling.

New York gold futures maintained an upward trend throughout Friday, with US stocks hitting a daily high of $2067.3 in the early trading session, up nearly 2.4% during the day. In the end, COMEX February gold futures, which had fallen for four consecutive days, rose by 1.6%, the largest closing increase since the Federal Reserve's decision on December 14, to $2051.6 per ounce, closing above $2050 for the first time since last Tuesday, ending the continuous four-day closing low since December 13. Gold prices rose 0.09% this week, experiencing a slight rebound after three consecutive weeks of gains. In the 14 weeks since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, gold futures have only declined in two weeks, namely last week and the week ending December 8th.

Spot gold also saw a significant increase on Friday, with US stocks initially rising above $2062, reaching a high not seen since January 3rd. It rose nearly 1.7% during the day and closed slightly below $2050 at the end of the US trading session, with an overall increase of about 1%.

Spot gold also rose more than 1% during Friday's trading session, showing a strong upward trend similar to gold futures.