After a 40% plunge, the voices claiming that Bitcoin is "worthless" have resurfaced.

Zhitong
2024.01.19 08:14
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Since its listing, the Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund has fallen by 40%, while the price of gold has risen by over 13%. The head of the investment group believes that Bitcoin does not possess the same value storage function as gold. After the listing of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, the prices plummeted, which is considered a "sell the news" event. Bitcoin supporters claim that it serves as an inflation hedge tool and a store of value, but investors remain cautious. The price of Bitcoin soared after the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, but some believe that its value has yet to be proven.

Zhitong App has learned that since its listing in October 2021, the first Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO.US), has fallen by 40%, while the price of gold has risen by more than 13% during the same period.

Lawrence Fuller, the head of investment group The Portfolio Architect, gave a "sell" rating to this product after the debut of the BITO fund, stating that when it comes to value storage, he prefers to hold gold.

It seems that this prediction has proven to be quite prescient after more than two years.

Last week, after receiving approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the highly anticipated first batch of Bitcoin spot ETFs began trading. The market is optimistic that investors and financial advisors can directly invest in Bitcoin through these new products, which will be very beneficial to the Bitcoin price in the medium to long term.

However, recent trends indicate that the launch of these 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs is a "sell the news" event. Fuller stated that after reaching a peak of over $49,000 on the first day of listing, the price of Bitcoin fell below $42,000, as if it were a tech stock that failed to meet profit expectations. The difference is that tech stocks represent companies with profits, assets, and intrinsic value, while Bitcoin does not.

Bitcoin supporters claim that this digital currency can serve as an inflation hedge and a store of value, improving the risk-adjusted performance of diversified investment portfolios. Fuller, on the other hand, stated that he has not seen any of these characteristics in Bitcoin over the past two years. Therefore, Fuller reiterates his "sell" rating on Bitcoin. In the past month, the price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed due to optimistic expectations for the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Bitcoin supporters claim that the value of Bitcoin lies in its limited supply, but Fuller argues that the supply of most things is limited, and their value does not exceed $49,000. As for value storage, how can an asset that loses 10% of its value in a day, let alone half of its value in a year, be considered a store of value? In the end, in a world where the actual yield is negative, the competition brought by Bitcoin spot ETF is much less. Bonds are not attractive, but the money market has a return rate of over 5%, which is a fierce competition for digital currencies. Fuller believes that over time, the popularity of Bitcoin spot ETF will gradually decline.

In summary, Fuller believes that Bitcoin does not have a determined intrinsic value, and its appreciation depends on more and more investors participating in this trend. It is more like tulips than a legitimate new investment category. It is understood that in the 17th century, tulips in the Netherlands caused speculative frenzy, and eventually the prices collapsed, leaving thousands of people bankrupt. Fuller will continue to stay away from Bitcoin.