Tesla: The goal is to launch the next generation of cars by the end of 2025, and Tesla is currently in between two "waves of growth".

Wallstreetcn
2024.01.25 01:07
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The new model is priced at $25,000 and adopts a more efficient and cost-effective "unpacking process".

After the release of the unexpected earnings report, Tesla revealed the timeline for the release of its next-generation vehicles.

During the earnings call on Wednesday local time, Tesla stated that its current goal is to launch the next-generation electric vehicles by the end of 2025, including a more affordable model.

Regarding this new model, Tesla has disclosed the following information:

  • The price is set at $25,000 to further expand the market.

  • It will adopt the "Unboxed Assembly Process," which, according to Tesla, will be faster, more efficient, and lower in cost.

  • Increasing production capacity may be challenging, and production will take place at the yet-to-be-built factories in Austin and Mexico, as well as a third factory outside of North America.

  • This is not a "product announcement," and Tesla remains cautious about the timeline for the end of 2025, with plans to potentially start production in mid-2025.

Tesla commented:

"This will be a challenging production ramp."

"Once in production, this vehicle will be far ahead of any manufacturing technology in the world, representing a higher level."

At the same time, Tesla also warned that sales growth in 2024 will slow down but surprisingly did not provide specific full-year delivery targets.

Wall Street predicts that Tesla will sell 2.2 million vehicles by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 20%. As a reference, Tesla has historically set the average annual growth rate of deliveries at 50%.

Morningstar Research analyst Seth Goldstein warned:

"The signals from Tesla suggest that a year-on-year growth of 50% or even 30%-40% will not happen in 2024."

The production of the new vehicle is crucial for Tesla.

Media reports indicate that even with the inclusion of the best-selling Model Y and Model 3, Tesla's product lineup is still relatively limited, and the prolonged price war has significantly eroded profits.

According to Tesla's 2023 Q4 and full-year earnings report, fourth-quarter performance fell short of expectations, with a 40% decline in profits. The automotive gross margin (excluding regulatory credits) was 17.2%, much lower than in previous years. It was the first annual profit decline in five years.

In response to the underwhelming performance, Tesla stated during the call:

"Tesla is currently in between two major growth waves."

Goldstein believes that the price reduction strategy has severely impacted Tesla's profit growth and stated that there will come a point where further price reductions are no longer possible.