PPI crushes interest rate expectations, US bonds plunge, US stocks retreat, AI "monster stocks" Supermicro plunges 20% from high, Chinese concept stocks win the market in the first week of the Year of the Dragon

Wallstreetcn
2024.02.16 23:05
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The three major US stock indexes ended their five-week winning streak; the "Seven Sisters" of technology all fell, with Meta Platforms falling more than 2%, Apple falling for the fifth consecutive week, and Nvidia initially rising more than 2% before turning down; chip stocks fell for two consecutive days, with Arm falling 4% and Applied Materials rising more than 6% after its earnings report. Chinese concept stocks rose for three consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of more than 4% this week, outperforming the market for four days, with XPeng rising nearly 4% and Li Auto rising more than 3%. German and French stocks hit new all-time highs for consecutive days, and Novo Nordisk hit new highs for four consecutive days. After the release of the PPI, the two-year US Treasury yield rose more than 10 basis points, briefly surpassing 4.70%, marking the third day this week to reach a new high since the dovish stance of the December 2021 Federal Reserve meeting; the Invesco DB US DLR Index TR Bullish Fund jumped and hit a new daily high, but later gave up its gains, still posting weekly gains since the beginning of the year; gold quickly turned down and then rebounded, still falling for two consecutive weeks. Offshore renminbi rose more than 100 points intraday, breaking through 7.22 to a one-week high, starting the Year of the Dragon with a strong performance. Crude oil hit a three-month high, rising for two consecutive weeks; US natural gas halted its eight-week decline, bidding farewell to its multi-year lows, and falling 13% in a week. London copper rose more than 2% to a two-week high, with a nearly 4% increase for the whole week.

After the release of the CPI on Tuesday, the US PPI announced on Friday also showed a higher-than-expected growth rate, indicating that inflation has not cooled down as expected by the market: the YoY growth rate of PPI in January was 0.9%, slower than expected, while the MoM growth rate exceeded expectations and accelerated to 0.3%. The YoY growth rate of core PPI was 2%, with a MoM growth rate of 0.5%, both exceeding analysts' expectations.

Before the release of the PPI data, Raphael Bostic, the president of the Atlanta Fed who has voting rights in this year's FOMC meeting, stated that given the strong labor market and economy, there is no rush to cut interest rates, and it is still unclear whether inflation can sustainably decrease to the Fed's target. The PPI strengthens the possibility that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, further dampening market expectations for rate cuts. Pricing of swap contracts shows that traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of 85 basis points this year, a decrease of more than 40% from two weeks ago's expectation of 150 basis points. The market previously expected the first rate cut in May, but now the most likely scenario is a rate cut in June.

Market expectations for rate cuts by the Fed this year have dropped significantly this week, with the probability of the first rate cut in May being less than 30%, and the probability of a rate cut in June being only 60% By Friday, the market's probability of the Fed cutting interest rates three or four times this year was evenly split.

After the release of the PPI, US Treasury bond prices plummeted and yields rose during the trading session. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond rose above 4.30% again, approaching the two-month high set after the release of the CPI. The yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, which is sensitive to interest rates, quickly increased by more than 10 basis points, reaching as high as 4.70% at one point, refreshing the high since the Fed's interest rate meeting in December last year, and approaching the level before the Fed's hint of a dovish turn this year.

After the release of the PPI, major US stock indices, which had been rebounding for several days, fell across the board, and the S&P 500 missed the rare consecutive weekly gains since 1972. The tech giants, known as the "Big Seven Sisters," all fell during the trading session, with Meta, which hit a new all-time high on Thursday, leading the decline. However, Nvidia only experienced a short-term decline and rebounded slightly overall after a decline on Thursday. SMCI, an AI concept stock that has been hitting new all-time highs for more than a week, plunged in early trading and fell nearly 20% from its intraday high. Chinese concept stocks, on the other hand, maintained their upward trend, with the Chinese concept stock index starting the Year of the Dragon with a strong performance, outperforming the broader market in the first week. If the S&P 500 can continue to rise this week, it will be the 15th consecutive week of gains since March 1972.

In the foreign exchange market, after the release of the PPI, the US dollar index jumped and hit a daily high, while US stocks gave up all their gains during the day but still ended the week with a cumulative increase, maintaining the momentum of weekly gains since the beginning of the year. As the US dollar retreated, non-US currencies rebounded. Offshore renminbi briefly rebounded more than 100 points from the daily low, reaching a high in the intraday trading of the week, and was able to reverse the cumulative decline for the whole week and have a good start to the Year of the Dragon as it continued to rise on Friday.

In the commodity market, after the release of the PPI, the upward pressure on the US dollar increased sharply, causing gold to quickly turn downward. Spot gold, which had briefly surpassed $2,000 on Thursday, once again fell below this level. However, both spot gold and futures gold rebounded during US stock trading hours. Although futures gold continued to close higher than the low point of the past two months, it still experienced a downward trend for the whole week due to a sharp drop after the release of the CPI on Tuesday. On the other hand, basic metals generally rose this week, with copper leading the way. Analysts said that short covering helped push up copper prices.

International crude oil withstood the pressure of the US dollar rebound and experienced a rebound during trading hours, with both US oil and Brent oil hitting new highs for over three months. Commentators pointed out that the impact of the tense situation in the Middle East was relatively greater. After Hezbollah claimed to have launched dozens of rockets at northern Israeli towns on Thursday, according to CCTV, the leader of Hezbollah stated on Friday that Israel would pay a price for its recent intensified attacks on southern Lebanon. Crude oil continued to rise this week, still influenced by geopolitical tensions. The OPEC monthly report is optimistic about the prospects of oil demand growth in the next two years, which also supports the rise in oil prices. However, the increase in US crude oil inventories announced by the US Department of Energy last week, which far exceeded expectations, had a negative impact on oil prices. US oil only closed lower on Wednesday when the EIA inventory data was released. The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve was hit, and the strength of the US dollar restrained the rise in oil prices.

The three major US stock indices fell together in early trading. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which opened slightly higher, quickly turned downward. The Nasdaq fell nearly 1% in early trading, almost erasing all its losses at noon, but then the decline expanded again, and it fell nearly 1% at the end of the day. The S&P 500 fell below 5,000 points and dropped 0.6% in early trading. It rebounded several times before noon and at the end of the morning session, and rose nearly 0.2% when it hit a new daily high at noon, but then fell below 5,000 points again and dropped 0.6% at the end of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which opened lower, fell nearly 190 points in early trading. It rebounded at the end of the morning session and at noon, rising more than 50 points when it hit a new daily high at noon, but then the decline expanded again, and it fell nearly 190 points at the end of the day.

In the end, all three indices closed lower after two consecutive days of gains. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% to 5,005.57 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 145.13 points, or 0.37%, to 38,627.99 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.82% to 15,775.65 points. If the S&P 500 can rise on Friday, it will have six consecutive weeks of gains and will achieve the 15th week of cumulative gains in the past 16 weeks, setting a record since March 1972. S&P fell on Friday, failing to extend its six-week winning streak.

The small-cap Russell 2000, which is dominated by value stocks, fell 1.39% after reaching a closing high not seen since December 27th. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index also turned lower, closing down 0.9%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100, also fell at the opening, closing down 1.09%. It has fallen 2.25% this week, ending a five-week winning streak.

Most major indices ended the week with losses. The S&P fell 0.42%, the Dow fell 0.11%, the Nasdaq fell 1.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.54%. This marks the end of a five-week winning streak and the second consecutive week of losses since the start of 2024. However, the Russell 2000 rose 1.13% and extended its winning streak to two weeks.

The major US indices experienced a sharp decline after the release of CPI data on Tuesday, followed by a rebound on Wednesday and Thursday. However, they were unable to erase the losses and ended the week in negative territory. All three major indices ended the week with losses, while small-cap indices saw gains of over 1%, outperforming the broader market.

Among the Dow components, Nike led the decline with a 2.4% drop after announcing plans to cut approximately 2% of its workforce, or over 1,600 employees, in a cost-cutting measure. In the S&P 500, only three sectors saw gains on Friday: materials, healthcare, and consumer staples, which rose 0.5%, 0.3%, and nearly 0.2% respectively. Communication services, which include Meta and Google, fell nearly 1.6%, while real estate, which is sensitive to interest rates, fell 1%. The IT sector, which includes chip stocks, fell 0.8%.

Four sectors in the S&P 500 ended the week with losses, mainly driven by tech giants. The IT sector fell nearly 2.5%, communication services fell 1.6%, non-essential consumer goods fell nearly 0.8%, and real estate fell nearly 0.2%. The sectors that saw gains included energy and materials, driven by the rise in commodities such as oil, which both rose over 2%. Utilities and financials both rose over 1%, while healthcare rose approximately 1%.

All seven major tech stocks, including Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla, closed lower. Tesla, which had surged over 6% on Thursday, turned lower at the opening on Friday, briefly falling nearly 1% before closing down nearly 0.3%. This marked a retreat from the closing high reached on January 24th and a 3.3% gain for the week. After a steep decline of nearly 14% in the week following its earnings report release on January 26th, Tesla had seen three consecutive weeks of gains. In the FAANMG group of six major technology stocks, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, fell throughout the day on Thursday, closing down 2.2% and reaching a new low. Apple, which is reportedly close to completing the development of a new AI tool, initially fell but rebounded slightly, closing down 0.8% and hitting a new low since January 5th after five consecutive days of decline. Microsoft also fell after an initial rebound, closing down 0.6% and hitting a new low since February 1st for the second consecutive day. Amazon fell nearly 0.2% after founder Bezos sold $2.03 billion worth of stock, approaching the low since February 1st set on Tuesday. Despite Google's release of the Gemini 1.5 Pro, Google's parent company Alphabet fell at the beginning of trading, closing down 1.5% and hitting a new low since January 8th for the second consecutive day. Netflix, which had reached a new high since December 2021 in the previous two days, closed down 1.6%.

Most of these six technology stocks fell this week, with Alphabet down 5.6%, Microsoft down nearly 4%, Apple down nearly 3.5%, Amazon down 2.8%, while Netflix rose 4% and Meta rose 1.1%.

Nvidia, Apple, Meta, and other seven major technology stocks fell overall on Friday, with narrow fluctuations for three days after a sharp drop on Tuesday, when the CPI was announced.

Chip stocks, which had turned down overall on Thursday, also experienced a decline during trading. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX initially rose more than 1%, but turned down during midday trading, closing down nearly 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. They fell 0.9% and 0.7% respectively this week. Among individual stocks, Nvidia, which initially rose 2.4%, fell slightly by less than 0.1% at the close. After reaching a new high in closing price on Wednesday, it fell for two consecutive days and rose nearly 0.7% this week, far less than the 9% increase last week. Arm, which rose nearly 6% on Thursday after Nvidia disclosed its holdings in the fourth quarter, fell back, dropping nearly 8% in early trading and closing down 4%. At the close, Intel and AMD both fell more than 1%, while Applied Materials, which announced better-than-expected revenue guidance for the second quarter due to strong demand for AI chips, initially rose 10% and closed up 6.4%.

Overall, AI concept stocks fell sharply, underperforming the broader market. Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which had risen for nine consecutive trading days, initially approached $1078, setting a new intraday high, and rose nearly 7.4% during the day. However, it turned down less than half an hour after the opening and fell to $801.15 at midday, a 20.2% drop during the day and a 26% drop from the high, falling from the closing high set for nine consecutive days. The cumulative increase for the week narrowed to 8.5%. At the close, C3.ai (AI) fell more than 4%, while BigBear.ai (BBAI), which had fallen more than 7% in early trading, fell nearly 1.8%. Palantir (PLTR) fell 3.8% and Adobe (ADBE) fell 7.4%.

After NVIDIA disclosed its holdings in the fourth quarter, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) initially fell nearly 10% on Thursday, but rebounded during the midday session to close up 1.4%, a 67% increase from the previous day.

AI concept stock Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged more than 7% at the opening, reaching a new intraday high, but later retreated by nearly 26% from the high.

Most popular Chinese concept stocks continued to rise, outperforming the broader market. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) initially rose nearly 2.6%, but gradually gave up some gains to close up 0.6%. It outperformed the market for three consecutive days and the fourth day of the week, with a cumulative increase of 4.3% for the week. After a 5.2% increase last week, it has risen for two consecutive weeks. The Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed up nearly 0.9% and 1% respectively. Among individual stocks, at the close, XPeng Motors rose nearly 4%, Li Auto rose over 3%, JD.com rose nearly 3%, Bilibili rose over 2%, Kingsoft Cloud and Dada Group rose nearly 2%, Huya rose over 1%, Nio rose 1%, Tencent Music rose nearly 0.8%, Baidu rose nearly 0.3%, Alibaba rose 0.1%, while New Oriental Education fell over 1%, and the two Bitcoin mining giants Canaan Inc. and Ebang International fell less than 1%. Pinduoduo, which rose more than 1% in early trading, fell slightly, as did NetEase.

Among the stocks that announced their earnings reports, Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, opened with a more than 10% increase and closed up 8.8% after announcing a nearly 50% increase in fourth-quarter revenue, a net profit of $273 million, and the first quarterly profit in two years. Trade Desk, an advertising technology company, initially rose more than 20% and closed up 17.5% after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue and first-quarter guidance. Toast, a restaurant management software company, closed up 16.8% after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter performance, announcing a $250 million stock buyback plan, and laying off 550 employees. DraftKings, a sports betting company, initially fell more than 6% after unexpectedly reporting a loss in the fourth quarter, but rebounded and closed up nearly 0.3% after rising more than 1% in early trading. Roku, a streaming service company, closed down 23.8% after reporting a larger-than-expected loss in the fourth quarter. Dropbox, a cloud storage company, closed down 22.9% due to weak first-quarter revenue guidance caused by pressure on paid user growth. DoorDash, known as the "American version of Meituan," initially fell more than 10% after reporting higher-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue but also higher-than-expected losses, and closed down 8.1%.

In Europe, UK retail sales in January showed a significant improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, exceeding expectations, and a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, instead of the expected narrowing of the decline to 1.6%. This positive data led to a rise in UK stocks. In addition, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France and a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, stated that there are several convincing reasons why the European Central Bank should not delay its first interest rate cut this year for too long. This dovish statement also boosted market sentiment. European stock indices have risen for three consecutive days. The STOXX 600 index has reached its highest closing level since January 5, 2022, for the second consecutive day, marking a new high since the beginning of January. Most major European stock indices continued to rise on Friday, with the UK stock market leading the gains with a 1.5% increase. The German and French stock markets also rose for three consecutive days, with both reaching historical closing highs for two consecutive days. However, the Spanish stock market, which rebounded on Thursday, fell on the third day of the week.

In terms of sectors, the basic resources sector, which includes mining stocks, led the gains with an increase of over 2%. Among the constituent stocks, Jardine Matheson, Anglo American, and Antofagasta, all listed in the UK, rose by over 2%, approximately 2%, and over 5% respectively. The technology sector rose by over 0.8% due to the positive quarterly guidance from Applied Materials, a US chip stock. ASML, the highest market value chip stock listed in the Netherlands, closed up 1.6%, approaching the closing historical high set earlier this week. The healthcare sector rose by nearly 0.7%, with Novo Nordisk, the highest market value pharmaceutical company listed in Denmark, closing up for four consecutive days, setting a new closing historical high.

The STOXX 600 index has risen by over 1% this week, marking a four-week consecutive increase. However, the increase is still far behind the approximately 3.1% increase in the week of January 26. Most national stock indices have seen cumulative gains, with the UK and Italian stock markets both rising by over 1.8%. The Italian stock market has risen for four consecutive weeks, while the UK stock market, which had fallen for two consecutive weeks, rebounded. The German and French stock markets rose by over 1% and have risen for two consecutive weeks. On the other hand, the Spanish stock market has experienced a slight cumulative decline for two consecutive weeks.

In terms of sectors, the automotive sector, which rose by over 2% last week, accelerated its upward trend and rose by approximately 3% cumulatively. The basic resources sector also rose by over 2% for the entire week due to the increase on Friday. The healthcare sector rose by over 1% and was supported by the nearly 2.3% increase in Novo Nordisk. However, the technology sector, which led the gains with over 4% increase last week, fell by 0.6% this week, with ASML experiencing a slight cumulative decline of nearly 0.2%.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which is influenced by the Producer Price Index (PPI), has risen by over 10 basis points in the past two years, reaching a new high since the December 2021 Federal Reserve meeting on the third day of this week.

European government bond prices have fallen for two consecutive days, with yields following the upward trend of US bonds. At the end of the bond market session, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark government bond was approximately 4.10%, rising by about 5 basis points during the day. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond reached a high of 4.129% after the release of the PPI, but still did not approach the high since December 4, 2023, which was set after the release of the US CPI on Tuesday. The yield on the 2-year UK bond rose by about 6 basis points, reaching approximately 4.60% during the day. The yield on the 10-year German government bond, the benchmark, rose by about 4 basis points to approximately 2.40% during the day. After the release of the PPI, it briefly rose above 2.42%, setting a new high since December 1. The yield on the 2-year German bond rose by about 6 basis points, reaching approximately 2.81% during the day. After the release of the PPI, it briefly approached 2.84%, also setting a new high since December 1. Due to further gains on Friday, European bond yields continued to rise this week, but the upward momentum was milder compared to last week. The 10-year UK bond yield, which rose by about 17 basis points last week, increased by about 2 basis points cumulatively, marking the seventh consecutive week of increase in the past eight weeks. The 2-year UK bond yield rose by about 2 basis points, following a 19 basis point increase last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of increase. The German bond yield rose for two consecutive weeks, with the 10-year German bond yield increasing by about 14 basis points cumulatively, marking the sixth week of increase in the past eight weeks. The 2-year German bond yield, which rose by about 16 basis points last week, increased by about 10 basis points.

The benchmark 10-year government bond yield fell below 4.24% in the early Asian session, hitting a daily low. After the pre-market release of the US PPI data, it quickly rose above 4.30% and approached 4.33%, approaching the high point since December 1, 2023, which was set for two consecutive days on Tuesday. It rose by nearly 10 basis points during the day and was around 4.28% at the end of the bond market, an increase of about 5 basis points during the day. After two consecutive days of decline, it rebounded and increased by about 10 basis points this week, marking the second consecutive week of increase and the fourth week of increase in the past five weeks.

The 2-year US bond yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, maintained an upward trend throughout Friday. It fell below 4.58% in the Asian session, hitting a daily low. After the release of the US PPI data, the increase quickly expanded and rose above 4.70%, approaching 4.72% at one point. Following Monday and Tuesday, it reached a high point since the first day of the Fed's interest rate meeting on December 13 last year. It rose by more than 14 basis points during the day and was around 4.64% at the end of the bond market, an increase of nearly 7 basis points during the day. After two consecutive days of decline, it increased by about 16 basis points this week, marking the third consecutive week of increase and the fifth week of increase in the past ten weeks.

Most US bond yields with different maturities increased by more than 10 basis points this week.

The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against six major currencies including the euro, initially fell slightly during the early European stock market session, but the increase quickly expanded after the release of the US PPI data. It rose by nearly 0.4% during the day, but then retreated. After the US stock market turned down during the midday session, it fell below 104.20, hitting a daily low, and fell by more than 0.1% during the day. However, it rebounded and erased most of the decline, but still failed to approach the high point since November 14, 2023, which was set for two consecutive days on Wednesday.

By the end of Friday's US stock market closing, the US Dollar Index was slightly below 104.30, experiencing a slight decline during the day and failing to reverse the two-day decline. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US dollar against ten other currencies, rose slightly during the day, ending the two-day decline. Both the US Dollar Index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased by nearly 0.2% this week, marking the seventh consecutive week of increase and the cumulative increase since the beginning of 2024. The US dollar index has seen a slight cumulative increase this week. After a jump on Tuesday's CPI release, most of the gains were given back.

Among non-US currencies, the Japanese yen, which had rebounded for several days, fell back. The USD/JPY maintained its upward momentum in the early Asian session and expanded its gains after the release of US PPI data, breaking through 150.60 and approaching the high of 150.9 reached on Tuesday, the highest since November 2023. It rose nearly 0.5% during the day and closed at around 150.20. The EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.0730 after the US PPI release, hitting a daily low and falling nearly 0.4% during the day. However, it rebounded as US stocks turned higher and closed slightly below 1.0780, showing a slight increase during the day but still lower than the low of 1.0700 reached on Wednesday, the lowest since November 2023. The GBP/USD briefly dipped below 1.2550 after the US PPI release, approaching the low of December 23, 2021, when it fell below 1.2520. It fell 0.4% during the day, but narrowed most of the losses after the opening of US stocks and hovered around 1.2600 at the close, almost unchanged from 24 hours ago.

Offshore yuan (CNH) against the US dollar fluctuated several times in the Asian and European stock sessions, initially falling after the release of US PPI data, hitting a daily low of 7.2234, and then rebounding. It maintained its upward momentum after US stocks turned higher, rising to 7.2124 in the early session, refreshing the intraday high since February 9, 2022, and rebounding 110 points from the daily low. At 5:59 am Beijing time on February 17, the offshore yuan against the US dollar was reported at 7.2128 yuan, up 48 points from the New York closing on Thursday, rising for three consecutive days and the fourth day of the week. It has accumulated a gain of 59 points in the first week of the Year of the Dragon, rebounding after two weeks of decline. This is the second week of gains since the week of January 26.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below $51,600 during the European stock session and briefly rose above $52,500 before the US stock session, approaching the high near $52,700 set in December 2021. However, it quickly fell below $52,000 after the US stock market opened and continued to give back its gains during the session. It closed above $51,700, with a 0.3% increase in the past 24 hours and an approximately 9% increase in the past seven days.

Bitcoin fell to $52,000 during Friday's session, bidding farewell to its high for over two years, but it has risen for four consecutive weeks.

Crude oil reached a three-month high and rose for two consecutive weeks, while US natural gas halted its eight-week decline and bid farewell to its low for over three years, falling 13% for the week. International crude oil futures rebounded for two consecutive days with intraday gains. When European stocks hit a new daily low in early trading, US WTI crude oil approached $77.20, down about 1% intraday, while Brent crude oil fell below $81.90, down nearly 1.1% intraday. However, they both rebounded afterwards. Before the opening of the US stock market, there was a short-term decline, but during midday trading, US oil rose above $79.30, up about 1.7% intraday, and Brent oil approached $83.70, up nearly 1% intraday.

In the end, crude oil closed higher for two consecutive days. On Wednesday, WTI March crude oil futures, which had risen for seven consecutive days, closed up 1.49% at $79.19 per barrel, while Brent April crude oil futures closed up 0.74% at $83.47 per barrel. Both WTI and Brent oil reached their highest closing levels since November 6, 2023, marking the third consecutive day of gains this week.

WTI oil rose 3.06% this week, while Brent oil rose 1.56%, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains in the past five weeks. Since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, crude oil has risen for nine weeks, but the increase this week is still far less than the week of January 26, when it rose more than 6%, and also less than last week.

US gasoline and natural gas futures continued to fluctuate. NYMEX March gasoline futures, which rebounded slightly on Thursday, fell by about 0.8% to $2.336 per gallon, continuing to fall from the high reached on October 2, 2023, after a one-day drop of more than 3% on Wednesday. It has fallen nearly 0.2% this week after rebounding last week. NYMEX March natural gas futures, which have fallen for eight consecutive days to the lowest level since June 2020, rose 1.77% to $1.6090 per million British thermal units, stopping the trend of setting new closing lows for seven consecutive days since September 2020. It has fallen 12.89% this week, marking the third consecutive week of decline in the past nine weeks.

London base metal futures mostly rose on Friday. London copper led the gains, rising more than 2% and approaching the $8,500 mark for the first time since February 1, and London zinc also rose for two consecutive days. London zinc and London lead, which have risen for three consecutive days, both reached new highs in over a week. London nickel, which rebounded after a three-day rise, reached a new high since the end of January.

On the other hand, London tin fell for three consecutive days after six consecutive gains, closing below $27,000 for the first time in a week. London lead fell for two consecutive days, reaching a low since late January set last Monday.

Base metals continued to decline collectively this week, with London copper rising nearly 4%, London zinc, which fell more than 6% last week, rising 3.7%, London lead rising more than 2%, London nickel rising nearly 3%, and London aluminum rising less than 0.1%. This marks the end of the two-week decline for all of them. London tin, which rose more than 3% last week, rose more than 2% this week, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains in the past six weeks. After the release of the US PPI, New York gold futures quickly turned lower before the US stock market opened. The US stock market hit a daily low of $2006.6 in early trading, falling more than 0.4% during the day. After a rebound in early trading, the US stock market continued to rise, reaching a daily high of $2027.2 at noon, with a 0.6% increase during the day.

In the end, COMEX April gold futures closed up 0.46% at $2024.1 per ounce, continuing to move away from the closing low since December 13, 2023, which was set after five consecutive declines on Wednesday. Due to a nearly 1.3% drop on Tuesday, the largest decline since January 3, gold in this cycle has fallen by 0.72% and has declined for two consecutive weeks.

During the 19 weeks since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, gold futures have fallen for six weeks, including three weeks in January, including the first week of the new year. The largest decline was in the week of December 8, when gold fell nearly 3.6%. During that week, spot gold fell below the $2000 mark, just like this week.

After the release of the PPI, spot gold quickly fell below $2000, refreshing the daily low. However, it is still far from the low set on Tuesday, which fell below $1985 and was the lowest since December 13. It fell nearly 0.5% during the day. The US stock market rebounded above $2000 in early trading and turned higher. At noon, it rose above $2015, reaching a daily high. It rose more than 0.5% during the day. At the close of the US stock market, it was above $2012, with an increase of about 0.4% during the day.

Spot gold fell this week, but it moved away from the two-month low set after falling below $2000 following the release of CPI on Tuesday.