Some analysts believe that due to the current oversold state of Apple's stock price, there may be an opportunity for a rebound. However, Apple's valuation is not considered cheap, so investors should exercise caution when considering buying Apple's stock.
Apple's stock price is under pressure, with a market value evaporating over $200 billion in the past six trading days.
On March 6th, Apple's stock price fell by 0.59% overnight, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of decline. Over the past six days, the cumulative decline reached 7.2%, leading to Apple's market value evaporating by over $200 billion. Since the beginning of this year, Apple's stock price has dropped by 12%, while the Nasdaq 100 index has risen by 7.42% during the same period.
Some analysts pointed out that Apple's stock price has been influenced by multiple factors, mainly including market concerns about Apple's sales in China and the fines imposed by the EU on Apple.
Jefferies analyst Michael Toomey stated:
"The market's negative sentiment towards Apple may have been overreacted, leading to an oversold stock price."
Toomey evaluated the oversold situation of Apple's stock by analyzing the relative strength index (RSI) of Apple's long position against short position in the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ. The results show that Apple's RSI relative to QQQ indicates that Apple's stock has been in the most severe oversold condition since early 2018.
Furthermore, Bespoke Investment Group LLC pointed out in an article on the X platform that Apple's stock price is currently more than three standard deviations below its 50-day moving average. This extreme oversold condition of Apple's stock has not been seen since the stock market crash due to the COVID-19 pandemic on March 16, 2020.
Despite Apple's recent poor performance and frequent negative news, Toomey believes that given the current oversold state of the stock price, there may be an opportunity for a rebound. However, Toomey also cautioned that investors should exercise caution when considering buying Apple's stock, as its valuation is not considered cheap. Currently, Apple's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is around 25 times, higher than the average level of 19 times over the past decade.
The performance of the options market indicates that traders remain optimistic about Apple's overall prospects, with not strong concerns about a decline in Apple's stock price. Specifically, the implied volatility of three-month options has rebounded from recent lows but remains at an intermediate level within the range of the past year. The skewness of put options remains near a two-year low.