"The Most Knowledgeable Apple Analyst": Apple lowers shipment forecast for Vision Pro in 2024 and 2025
Guo Mingchi believes that Apple cut orders before launching Vision Pro in markets outside the United States, indicating a significant drop in demand in the US, exceeding expectations. This also suggests that the development of MR headsets, Pancake, and Micro OLED may be lower than market expectations
Tianfeng International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated that due to a "severe drop in demand beyond expectations", Apple has reduced the shipment volume of Vision Pro headsets.
On April 24th, Ming-Chi Kuo wrote that Apple has revised down the 2024 shipment volume of Vision Pro to 400,000 to 450,000 units, originally expected to be 700,000 to 800,000 units.
Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Apple had already cut orders before launching Vision Pro in markets outside the United States, indicating a significant drop in demand in the U.S. Therefore, it is expected that when Vision Pro is launched in more countries, Apple will adopt a more conservative market strategy.
Ming-Chi Kuo also revealed that Apple expects the shipment volume of Vision Pro in 2025 to be lower than in 2024. Additionally, it is reported that Apple is "reviewing and adjusting" its headset product roadmap, so Ming-Chi Kuo believes that compared to previous reports about the improved version of Vision Pro launching in 2025, there will be no new Vision Pro model in 2025.
In addition, Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the cancellation of Vision Pro orders implies that the following new trends may develop below market expectations:
MR Headsets. The challenge for Vision Pro is to solve the lack of key applications, pricing, and comfort while not sacrificing the immersive user experience. In contrast, VR, although also a niche market, at least has successfully validated applications (such as games) and better trend visibility than MR.
Pancake. As the upgrade of smartphone optical specifications has slowed down for several years, investors expect that the significantly higher unit price of Pancake lenses can become a new growth driver for the optical industry. The lower-than-expected shipment volume of Vision Pro will result in Pancake's future revenue contribution to the optical industry being lower than investors' expectations.
Micro OLED. Vision Pro/MR headsets are the most critical application for Micro OLED. With the growth trend of key applications not meeting expectations, the mass production of Micro OLED and its adoption by other small-sized consumer electronic devices will be delayed