Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | International gold price hits a new high, institutions: Next year, the spot gold price is expected to reach $3,000 (with concept stocks)

According to the Wise Finance APP, on October 17th, the international gold price once again hit a historical high, with COMEX gold reaching a peak of $2712.7 per ounce intraday, and a year-to-date cumulative increase of over 30%. Analysts believe that the continuous rise in gold prices is mainly driven by its dual nature as a currency and a safe-haven asset. On one hand, the continuous interest rate cuts by global central banks are expected to strengthen the currency nature of precious metals due to the expansion of balance sheets. On the other hand, central banks around the world are alternately increasing their gold holdings, adding more favorable support to precious metals through the safe-haven attribute.

The purchase of gold by central banks around the world is one of the main driving forces behind this year's record high international gold prices. Recently, officials from central banks of countries such as Mexico, Mongolia, and the Czech Republic have rarely spoken out on different occasions, openly expressing support for increasing gold reserves. These officials stated that against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and declining interest rates, the proportion of gold in their respective central bank reserves may continue to increase in the coming years.

Joaquín Tapia, Director of the International Reserves Department of the Bank of Mexico, stated: "Given the current background we are facing - lower interest rates, geopolitical tensions, the U.S. election, and many uncertainties, perhaps the share of gold in our investment portfolio will also increase."

Furthermore, the deterioration of geopolitical tensions has increased market uncertainty, leading to an increase in demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. Israel has turned a blind eye to peace calls from the United States and the United Nations, and is still intensifying its strikes in the southern part of Lebanon, increasing the likelihood of the Middle East conflict spiraling out of control.

Soni Kumari, Commodity Strategist at ANZ Bank, stated that a factor that could change the trajectory of gold prices is the relaxation of U.S. monetary policy, as this would create conditions for investment demand. Uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election and geopolitical tensions will also support gold. During periods of low interest rates and geopolitical turmoil, gold is often the preferred investment choice.

As international gold prices continue to soar, the retail prices of gold jewelry in major domestic gold shops have also been climbing. On October 17th, the prices of gold jewelry per gram given by major gold shops such as Chow Tai Fook, Lukfook, and Lao Miao Gold have reached 793 yuan/gram. Moreover, it is widely believed in the industry that there is still room for gold prices to rise in the future. Precious metals consulting firm Metals Focus predicts that driven by further interest rate cuts, geopolitical concerns, and portfolio diversification, the spot gold price will reach a historical high of around $3000 per ounce in 2025.

Guotai Junan Securities stated that October is a crucial month before the U.S. presidential election, and overseas investors may once again speculate on the expected election results and the pace of Fed rate cuts. In December, there will be a test window for Fed rate cuts, and the market will be more sensitive to data indicating economic weakness. Considering the relatively slow pace of interest rate cuts (expected 100 basis points within the year), there may be a possibility of the disproval of an economic soft landing, leading to rapid trading in response to economic cooling. Therefore, gold still presents a buying opportunity in October and November, with the possibility of a second upward trend in the first half of 2025. It is recommended to pay attention to: Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, SD GOLD, benefiting targets include Zhaojin Mining, China Gold International, etc. Related Concept Stocks:

Zhaojin Mining (02899): The company's main source of profit comes from copper and gold mining businesses. In the first half of the year, the company produced 518,570 tons of copper, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and 35,406 kilograms of gold, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. During this period, the Kamoa Copper Mine Phase III beneficiation plant was completed and put into operation half a year ahead of schedule. After reaching full production, the annual copper production will increase to over 600,000 tons, making it the largest in Africa and the third largest in the world. The Savary-Alden Gold Mine's 2.4 million tons/year mining and selection project and 5 tons/year gold smelting project were completed and put into operation as scheduled.

SD GOLD (01787): According to a report by Morgan Stanley, against the backdrop of soaring gold prices, SD GOLD continues to enjoy a strong profit trend. The growth in production comes from Linglong Mine resuming operations and the expected start-up of the Cardinal project in Ghana in the last quarter. Additionally, the contribution from the 28.89% stake in its subsidiary YinTai Gold (000975.SZ) (now known as Shandong Gold International) also played a role.

Lao Pu Gold (06181): In the first half of 2024, Lao Pu Gold saw a staggering year-on-year revenue and net profit growth of 148% and 199% respectively. Its growth performance was particularly outstanding in an environment of high gold prices and a decline in the gold jewelry industry since Q2. With strong product offerings, coupled with explosive popularity on social content platforms such as Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book), the company successfully broke through, leading to a rapid increase in consumer numbers