Bernstein believes that even if Tesla becomes the first company to be approved for L5 fully autonomous driving technology, the improvement in AI computing power may allow other companies to catch up quickly, making it difficult for Tesla to obtain excess profits. The asset value of Google's Waymo is largely obscured, with a weekly travel volume of 100,000 times potentially generating annual revenue of over $100 million for Waymo, and the annual revenue is rapidly increasing
On Monday, October 21st, Bernstein analyst Nikhil Devnani and his team released a report stating that Tesla's Robotaxi is overvalued, while Google's Waymo is undervalued.
Bernstein doubts whether Tesla can achieve absolute victory in the field of autonomous driving, believing that Tesla lags behind other companies in cooperation with regulatory agencies. Even if it becomes the first company to be approved for L5 fully autonomous driving technology, the improvement in AI computing power may allow other companies to quickly catch up, making it difficult for Tesla to obtain excess profits.
On the other hand, Bernstein believes that the value of Google's Waymo assets is largely underestimated. With a weekly travel volume of 100,000 trips, Waymo's annual revenue may exceed $100 million and is rapidly growing.
According to the report, Bernstein rates Tesla as "underperform" with a target price of $120 per share, and rates Google as "market perform". Analysts expect the company's stock performance to be in line with the market, usually not bringing excess returns, but also not having significant downside risks, with a target price of $180 per share.
Is Tesla's Robotaxi Overvalued?
Tesla's unmanned taxi Robotaxi, officially unveiled on October 10th, disappointed the market. The launch event lacked key details and avoided regulatory issues. Bernstein stated that the value of Tesla's automotive business may not reach $200 billion.
Bernstein expressed that they doubt whether Tesla can achieve absolute victory in the field of autonomous driving - although they believe Tesla can achieve L5 fully autonomous driving technology, they are currently unsure if Tesla can surpass companies that are already delivering L4 highly autonomous driving vehicles, especially since Tesla lags behind other companies in cooperation with regulatory agencies or compliance.
Bernstein also added that even if Tesla becomes the first company approved for L5 fully autonomous driving technology, the improvement in AI computing power may allow other companies to quickly catch up, popularize L5 fully autonomous driving technology, eliminate premiums, and make it difficult for Tesla to obtain excess profits.
Is Google's Waymo Undervalued?
Bernstein stated that although Waymo is in a leading position in the autonomous driving car market, the value of this asset is largely hidden due to lack of transparency, as Google mixes Waymo with other diversified investment projects.
According to data released by Waymo, as of August, the company's autonomous taxi service in the United States has exceeded 100,000 paid trips per week, which may make Waymo's annual revenue exceed $100 million, with revenue still rapidly growing. Currently, Waymo has been providing paid autonomous taxi services in parts of the San Francisco Bay Area, Phoenix, and Los Angeles, and plans to launch this service in Austin and Atlanta next year