Breakfast | NVIDIA, Apple fall from new highs! Pinduoduo surged over 8% at one point, while Chinese concept stocks outperformed the broader market

Overnight Market Overview

U.S. bond yields rose, weighing on U.S. stocks. The S&P and Dow fell, with the former experiencing its first consecutive two-day decline in over a month. The Nasdaq closed higher. The Russell small-cap index initially fell by 0.7% but halved its losses. Industrial and materials sectors underperformed, with the former being impacted by a 9.05% drop in GE Aviation and a 6.12% drop in Lockheed Martin, while the latter was affected by a 5.34% drop in Sherwin-Williams (SHW). The consumer staples sector performed well.

Chinese concept stocks outperformed the broader U.S. market. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.3% before closing up 0.94% at 6969.48 points. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose by 1.12%, the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose by 1.37%, the FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) rose by 2.15%, and the FTSE China 3x Bear ETF (YANG) fell by 2.22%. The "China Dragon" ETF RONDHL CHINA ETF (DRAG) rose by 1.17%.

Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Tiger Brokers, planning to issue 15 million American depositary shares, fell by 13.31%, New Oriental fell by 1.28%, XPeng rose by 2.03%, Li Auto rose by 3.29%, Nio rose by 1.75%, ZEEKR rose by 5.59%, JD.com rose by 1.69%, Pinduoduo, with increased holdings by BlackRock, rose by 8.3% before closing up 2.92%, Fangdd rose by 2.46%, Bilibili rose by 1.34%, Meituan ADR rose by 3.24%, and Miniso rose by 5.11%.

McDonald's briefly fell by over 9% after reports of severe E. coli infections at multiple McDonald's locations in the U.S., linked to an onion supplier.

Starbucks reported lower-than-expected revenue and earnings for the third quarter, delaying the release of fourth-quarter guidance, causing a brief post-market drop of around 7%.

General Motors rose by nearly 10%, reaching its highest level in nearly three years since the beginning of 2022, following positive third-quarter earnings and an upward revision of this year's profit guidance.

Individual Stock News

BlackRock significantly increases its holdings in Pinduoduo by nearly 30% in U.S. stocks in the third quarter

In a filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on October 22, BlackRock disclosed that its holdings of Pinduoduo American depositary receipts (ADRs) increased to 33.01 million shares, representing a 2.4% stake in the total Pinduoduo ADRs outstanding. The filing indicated that this holding disclosure was triggered by transactions on September 30.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the above-mentioned change in holdings implies that BlackRock increased its Pinduoduo ADR holdings by 7.3 million shares in the third quarter of this year, representing a 28.4% increase in the number of shares held compared to the end of the second quarter, or an increase of nearly 30%.

Will the Nvidia bubble burst?

Analysts suggest that infrastructure investment is not final demand but rather intermediate demand. Without the support of final demand, any infrastructure investment is unsustainable. The recent drop in N-card leasing prices indicates that as intermediate demand for infrastructure investment, it is impossible to continue rising indefinitely without considering final demand

Bernstein: Tesla's Robotaxi is overvalued, while Google's Waymo is undervalued

Bernstein believes that even if Tesla becomes the first company to be approved for L5 fully autonomous driving technology, the improvement in AI computing power may allow other companies to quickly catch up, making it difficult for Tesla to achieve excess profits. The asset value of Google's Waymo is largely underestimated, with its weekly travel volume of 100,000 times potentially generating annual revenue exceeding $100 million, and the annual revenue is rapidly increasing. Bernstein has set Tesla's target price at $120 per share, about 45% lower than the current stock price.

Non-AI chip indicator Texas Instruments Q3 performance exceeds expectations, Q4 guidance disappointing

Texas Instruments' third-quarter revenue decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, lower than expected, with a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter. Revenue from industrial sector chips continued to decline quarter-on-quarter, while other terminal markets grew. The fourth-quarter revenue guidance is expected to decrease by more than 9% year-on-year, with EPS falling by as much as 28%. Analysts expect revenue to increase year-on-year, while EPS may decrease by more than 9%. After-hours stock prices initially fell by over 2% but later rose by over 4%.

Beauty consumption "red light": L'Oreal's Q3 sales slowdown intensifies, same-store sales in China and other North Asian regions accelerate decline by 6.5%

In the third quarter, L'Oreal's sales increased by 2.8% year-on-year, less than half the growth rate in the second quarter. The growth of the largest business, mass-market cosmetics sales, shifted from positive to negative. The decline in same-store sales in North Asia was nearly three times that of the second quarter, but the beauty business in Japan ranked first overseas, partly driven by tourists from China and other regions. The CEO mentioned strong sales of brands like YSL and Prada in China. After the financial report, L'Oreal's stock in the US turned downward and fell by nearly 5% at one point.

Pop Mart Q3 revenue doubles year-on-year, overseas business revenue quadruples

In the third quarter, Pop Mart's e-commerce platform revenue increased by 135%-140% year-on-year, offline retail store revenue increased by 30%-35% year-on-year, and robot store revenue increased by 20%-25% year-on-year. Pop Mart previously stated that it has already achieved "recreating another Pop Mart overseas."

Macro News

China's 500 billion yuan Interbank Special Financing (SFISF) "ammunition" in place, CICC uses this tool to enter the stock market for the first time

According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, SFISF is both beneficial and detrimental to securities firms. On one hand, the cost of swaps and repurchases may increase profit/account value volatility, while on the other hand, if positive returns can be generated, it will increase the return on equity. In addition, most securities firms will use SFISF more for market-making/investing in high-dividend stocks in the market.

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Finance report suggests: issuing 2 trillion yuan special national bonds to support the establishment of a stock market stabilization fund

According to The Paper, the report suggests issuing 2 trillion yuan special national bonds to support the establishment of a stock market stabilization fund, promoting market stability through buying low and selling high of blue-chip leading stocks and ETFs; moderately increasing the proportion of insurance company funds invested in the stock market, increasing the proportion of funds indirectly entering the market through local social security funds managed by the National Social Security Council; strengthening the convenience of exchanges between securities, funds, and insurance companies, and coordinating with the central bank to buy and sell government bonds, achieving effective linkage between the money market and the capital market, with the central bank providing low-cost liquidity support to the stock market when necessary

Short Selling Activity in Hong Kong Stock Market Hits Lowest Level Since 2021

Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs, stated that the risk-return profile of the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stock markets currently leans towards the upside, indicating higher risks for short selling positions, leading to a reduction in short positions.

Asset Management Giant Apollo: Fed May Not Cut Interest Rates in November

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Management, predicts that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, and inflation may reignite, increasing the possibility that the Federal Reserve may have to adjust its direction at the November meeting and pause its rate-cutting plans.

JPMorgan Believes U.S. Stocks Will Remain Strong in the Next Decade, Benefiting from Technology and AI

JPMorgan believes that the U.S. large-cap stocks that have been driving most of the recent gains will continue to be the backbone of portfolios, achieving an annualized return of 6.7% over the next 10 to 15 years, with artificial intelligence playing a crucial role in enhancing productivity and economic growth. The analysis indicates that uncertainty is prevailing on Wall Street.

Current Market Concern: Not Enough Buying in U.S. Stocks Before Year-End

With market risks accumulating in November, investors are hedging risks while worrying about missing out on buying opportunities. In the past week, traders have bought over 100,000 contracts of S&P ETF December call options, with each contract priced over 5% above market premium. Analysis suggests that historically, when the market is overly hedged, performance tends to be positive, with the median stock market return exceeding 13% one year later.

IMF Lowers Global Economic Outlook for Next Year, Warns of Significant Downside Risks, U.S. Election May Lead to Market Replay of August Sell-Off

The IMF maintains its global economic growth forecast for this year at 3.2%, but lowers next year's global economic growth forecast to 3.2%, warning that risks such as war conflicts and trade protectionism are intensifying. The IMF commends global central banks for curbing inflation without pushing the economy into recession. The IMF warns that the fragile financial markets face high uncertainty due to the U.S. election, which could potentially lead to a replay of the market sell-off in August