In September, the number of job vacancies in the United States dropped to 7.44 million, the lowest level since the beginning of 2021, reflecting a gradual reduction in job vacancies. The number of layoffs has risen to the highest level since January 2023, indicating a decline in job-seeking confidence. Nevertheless, consumer confidence index has increased, indicating a relatively strong economy. It is expected that the number of new non-farm jobs in October will drop significantly, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. Bets on a Fed rate cut have increased, and the market is paying attention to the upcoming economic data
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, on Tuesday, the "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey" (JOLTS) data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of job vacancies in the U.S. dropped to 7.44 million in September, the lowest level since the beginning of 2021. The median forecast by economists surveyed by foreign media was 8 million, reflecting a gradual decrease in job vacancies over the past two years, with multiple industries showing a general decrease in job vacancies.
In addition, the number of layoffs in September rose to the highest level since January 2023, while the number of employees choosing to voluntarily leave their jobs decreased, indicating a decrease in people's confidence in finding new jobs.
Nevertheless, other indicators show that the labor market and the economy remain relatively strong. Another report showed that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index rose to the highest level since the beginning of the year in October, indicating stable growth in the consumer market.
The release of this data before the October employment report provides forward-looking information to the market. Due to the impact of Boeing (BA.US) worker strikes and several severe hurricanes, the October employment data may be difficult to interpret. It is expected that the addition of non-farm employment in October will significantly decrease compared to September, but the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.
There are other important economic data releases this week, including the government's preliminary data on third-quarter economic growth and the inflation rate for September, which will be the last batch of economic data before the presidential election next week. The Federal Reserve policy meeting will be held two days after the election, with economic issues being closely watched in this election.
The main industries that saw a decrease in job vacancies in September were healthcare and social assistance, government departments, and accommodation and food services, which is in line with expectations after the peak summer season. The number of job vacancies per unemployed person remained at 1.1, similar to the level during the strong labor market in 2019. This ratio reached a peak of 2:1 in 2022.
A highlight in the report is the increase in the hiring rate to the highest level since May, but overall, the hiring rate has been declining since the most recent peak in 2021.
On Tuesday, traders in the Fed funds futures market increased their bets on further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Fed funds futures contracts show that traders are increasingly confident in the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at each of the next two meetings and further cuts next year, reducing the probability of a pause in rate cuts in November to around 2%. At the time of writing, the three major indices rose, with the S&P 500 up 0.14%, the Nasdaq up 0.35%, and the Dow up 0.06%. Spot gold continued to rise, surpassing $2770 per ounce, hitting a new historical high, with a 1% increase during the day