Meituan earnings report preview: Analysts generally expect third-quarter revenue to increase by more than 20% year-on-year

【Source: WeChat Official Account "Chaoyang Yongxu"】

1. Recently proposed disclosure date for financial report

MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) will announce its Q3 2024 financial report data on November 29.

1. What are the expectations for MEITUAN-W's third-quarter performance?

As of November 28, 2024, based on Chaoyang Yongxu's quarterly performance forecast data:

Projected operating revenue is between 91.966 billion to 92.387 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% to 21.0%; projected net profit is between 8.464 billion to 11.810 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.0% to 199.0%; projected adjusted net profit is between 11.200 billion to 13.423 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.6% to 134.4%.

Attention will be paid to whether the subsequent financial report data can exceed expectations, as Chaoyang Yongxu's Hong Kong stock quarterly performance forecast data will provide performance verification for investors.

1. Latest sell-side views on MEITUAN-W

Guohai Securities believes: MEITUAN-W is expected to have total revenue of 92.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. Core local business revenue is 68.7 billion yuan, of which the food delivery business is expected to generate 45.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with an operating profit margin of 17.8%. The flash purchase business is expected to generate 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with an operating profit margin of 0.3%. The in-store hotel and travel business is expected to generate 15.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with an operating profit margin of 35%. New businesses are expected to generate 23.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with an operating profit margin of -8%.

By business segment:

1. Food delivery business: Expected Q3 2024 revenue to grow 14.6% year-on-year to 45.9 billion yuan, with order volume increasing 12% year-on-year to 6.12 billion orders, and operating profit margin increasing 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to 17.8%.

2. Flash purchase business: Expected Q3 2024 revenue to grow 42% year-on-year to 6.7 billion yuan, with order volume increasing 37% year-on-year to 960 million orders, with flash warehouses becoming the core driver.

3. In-store hotel and travel business: Expected Q3 2024 revenue to grow 25% year-on-year to 15.4 billion yuan, with operating profit margin increasing to 35% quarter-on-quarter, as the synergy is released after the integration of home delivery and in-store services.

4. New business: Expected Q3 2024 revenue to grow 25% year-on-year to 23.5 billion yuan, with a projected loss of 1.8 billion yuan, focusing on high-quality growth.

CMB International believes: MEITUAN-W's Q3 2024 performance preview shows total revenue growing 21% year-on-year, net profit increasing to 11.4 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 12.3%. Local business revenue grew by 20%, with instant delivery order volume and revenue increasing by 14% and 18%, respectively, and profit growing by 36%. In-store hotel and travel business revenue and profit grew by 20% and 32%, respectively, with a profit margin of 35%. New business revenue grew by 25%, with quarterly losses reduced to 1.86 billion yuan. For 2024-25, local business and in-store hotel and travel business revenue growth rates are expected to be 21%/18% and 23%/30%, respectively, with adjusted operating profit growth rates of 30%/27% and 20%/33% Although the new business has uncertainties, it is expected that losses will continue to narrow. MEITUAN maintains a leading position in the instant retail and delivery industry, and the food delivery service meets user needs through diversified products. The flash purchase business has significant market potential, and the competitive impact on the local life service market is manageable. The impact of community group buying and overseas food delivery expansion on profits is limited, with an expected adjusted net profit growth rate of 78%/25% for 2024/25.

(Note: The profit forecast data related to this article comes from the Chaoyang Yongxu profit forecast database)