Who is celebrating NIO DAY?

Author | Chai Xuchen

Editor | Wang Xiaojun

Finally, Li Bin presented Nio's "family bucket."

On December 21, Nio's "Spring Festival Gala" NIO DAY arrived as scheduled. Since 2017, this has always been a big party between Nio and its users. XPeng Chairman He Xiaopeng brought tangyuan to cheer for Li Bin, and former Volkswagen Group leader Diess also appeared to support, witnessing this most lively NIO DAY together with over 20,000 audience members on site.

Coinciding with the tenth anniversary of Nio's founding, that night, the 800,000 yuan ET9 broke the ceiling for domestic executive sedans; the third brand Firefly, which directly competes with Mercedes-Benz smart and BMW mini, also unveiled, becoming the absolute star of the stage.

The entire product lineup of Nio was thus revealed.

From the high-end Nio priced at 300,000-800,000 yuan; to the family-oriented Leda priced at 200,000-300,000 yuan; and then to the globally targeted Firefly, Chairman Li Bin has basically covered the mainstream consumer market with three brands. Over a month ago, Li Bin stated in an internal letter that next year he aims to double sales to 400,000 units and achieve profitability the following year.

It seems that the long-awaited comprehensive battle for Nio is about to begin. However, after the market opened on Monday, Nio's stock prices in Hong Kong and the U.S. experienced some fluctuations. This is because the market is currently turbulent, while on the final stage, Li Bin's NIO DAY seems to be "gradually drifting away" from the mainstream market.

In Nio's view, the ET9 is the crystallization of ten years of technological accumulation, withstanding speed bumps like a six-layer champagne tower, maintaining stability at 160 mph despite a tire blowout, the self-developed smart driving chip onboard, an administrative screen, and a first-class experience in the rear seats, among others. On site, Li Bin listed nine major aspects of luxury to promote the ET9.

Nio places its hopes of breaking through the BBA executive vehicle fortress on the ET9, but unlike the Aito M9, Li Bin explicitly stated that ET9 sales would not be too high. In an interview with Wall Street Journal, he said he would be very happy with monthly sales exceeding a thousand. He also revealed that the limited edition of 999 units for the ET9 has already sold out, and sales are in line with expectations.

As for the briefly showcased high-end small car brand "Firefly," Li Bin gave it a highly distinctive introduction and a much-discussed appearance, targeting the pure electric BMW MINI with a pre-sale price of 148,800 yuan. Nio President Qin Lihong jokingly said this is a small car without a "dad vibe." The main target of Firefly is not the domestic market, but to secure a place in the global A-class car market with millions of units.

However, this "Firefly," which was initiated in August 2022, did not anticipate the sudden changes in global market tariffs on new energy vehicles exported from China over the past year.

In the industry’s view, targeting the personality-based overseas market, its debut seems not to be in line with the trend. This is because both Li Auto and XPeng have tasted success with their down-market strategies in the domestic market, allowing them to shine in the intense elimination rounds. Meanwhile, Leda, which bears the heavy responsibility of scale, is still struggling on the path of production "Ten years ago, Li Bin told me that the automotive industry is not a winner-takes-all market," Qin Lihong expressed the rationale behind Nio's self-justification in the face of industry share anxiety. He firmly believes that there are no pure oligopolies in the automotive sector, and the market share of leading players is at most 10-15%.

In Qin Lihong's view, cars cannot erase individuality; they cannot be sold solely based on functionality and performance. He believes that diversity is the main theme, stating, "I think improving efficiency and saving costs are always correct, but more importantly, what kind of brand Nio is—will our car owners be proud of it? This is a bottom line we cannot overstep."

Clearly, in the decisive battleground where compromises should be made for the sprint, Nio still insists on its core values, methodically executing its previously set long-term vision: ensuring charging and battery swapping are accessible in every county, developing its own chips, and now gathering three brands.

Fortunately, Nio's counterattack is steadily being realized, and Li Bin has set a "Deadline" for achieving profitability in the next couple of years.

Two years ago, he accurately predicted that 2024 would be a year of elimination, and now he forecasts that in ten years, five of the top ten global automotive companies will have Chinese faces, with Nio striving to be one of them. In the next decade, can Li Bin and his Nio successfully navigate the cycles and remain at the final table?

The following is a transcript of the conversation with Nio Chairman Li Bin, Nio President Qin Lihong, and Firefly President Jin He (edited):

Q: What is the purpose of the layout planning for Nio's three brands and eleven models?

Li Bin: First, we look at the pricing range of the brands. How many products each brand covers in its price segment depends on user demand. Nio is in the 300,000-800,000 range, which has a much larger price gap compared to BBA; Ledo targets the 200,000-300,000 market; Firefly is a high-end small car brand, with a recent price adjustment to 148,800.

For high-end brands, there is still a desire for certain exclusivity and uniqueness, which will be more segmented. BBA sells over 50 models in China, while Nio currently has 9; Ledo targets the mass market, and we hope that each model we launch can sell in large quantities, similar to Toyota and Tesla's thinking; Firefly only has one model, making operations simpler. The main consideration is the purpose and demand of users purchasing cars in this price range, which will determine how many models are the most efficient investment.

Q: After the ET9 is released, will there be internal competition with domestic brands like ZunJie?

Qin Lihong: ZunJie is a product worth looking forward to, but its value orientation is different from that of the ET9. The relationship with brands like YangWang is complementary in the market; they target different demographics, such as administrative flagship and extreme off-road. However, they are all attempts by Chinese brands in the high-end market.

This kind of complementarity represents a healthy relationship of cooperation within competition. The launch of the Nio ET7 is aimed at challenging the fortress market of international high-end brands. In this market, the progress of Chinese brands will be more challenging, which also proves their greater value.

Li Bin: The more we move towards high-end and administrative markets, the more important consensus becomes. I believe that these Chinese brands are all heading towards the high-end administrative market together, which is good because it will make many users think that Chinese brands can indeed produce administrative flagships, and several can do so, which will shake the traditional BBA's monopoly position in the high-end flagship market Q: How does the ET9 achieve uniqueness?

Li Bin: As the price of the car increases, the proportion of emotional demand will also rise. Each company has its own principles and genes. We have repeatedly mentioned that it should be pure, warm, exquisite, and futuristic. Apple does this very well; it’s not about comparing performance scores or simply pixel counts. If you only cater to trends, it’s actually quite difficult because without a stance, no one will ultimately like you.

In the executive flagship, we are thinking about how to incorporate a technological and warm experience. This ET9 launch event basically conveyed most of that feeling. It’s not just about the ET9; Nio's products and services can only be felt through experience. It’s hard to perceive just by watching videos.

Q: Some believe the ET9 is priced too low; what is its pricing logic?

Li Bin: Pricing itself is also a form of positioning. If your product strength, technology, experience, and service can support it, of course, you can set a higher price. However, I think we should return to a basic logic. When users buy large displacement imported luxury cars, half of the money goes to various taxes. It’s not right for us to earn that money; it’s about being responsible to consumers.

The pricing of executive flagships from Mercedes, BMW, and Audi in the U.S. and European markets is generally around $110,000 to $120,000, or over €100,000, which is about 800,000 RMB. We set our price at 788,000 RMB, and our launch version at 818,000 RMB, basically following this logic.

Q: What special sales strategy will Nio have for selling the ET9?

Qin Lihong: The time value of the ET9's customer base is very high; luxury is not a necessity. What they want is an efficient and worry-free environment. My consumption should help save time and energy, so the benefits include business travel services, dedicated drivers, etc. The ostentatious luxury is not the orientation of the ET9, but we cannot lose points in social consensus, such as how the seats inside the car facilitate conversation between two people; how one person can rest comfortably.

Q: But now, brands that have lowered their prices are succeeding; doesn’t Nio feel anxious?

Qin Lihong: Li Bin told me that the automotive industry is not a winner-takes-all industry. Normally, a car company’s market share rarely exceeds 15%; achieving 10% is already in the top 1-2.

There are two reasons: the automotive industry is a capital-intensive industry, especially in terms of fulfilling deliveries; secondly, although cars are industrial products, they relate to lifestyle and social positioning. Being different from others is a demand. Many companies focus on scale and pleasing the masses, which I respect, but sometimes I feel that differentiation is the reason users choose a car.

Cars cannot erase individuality; they cannot be sold just by talking about functionality and performance. The automotive industry is inherently non-monopolistic; it is a flourishing field, whether it’s gasoline cars, electric cars, or flying cars. In this context, it’s more important to do well in your own area. This time at NIO DAY, with 20,000 people, it represents a kind of warmth and feeling; it is Nio's biggest asset in 10 years, and it will ultimately reflect in the financial statements.

Li Bin: To evaluate something, you need to look at the time scale; conclusions drawn at different nodes and scales are completely different. Recently, someone asked if Ningde would also get into battery swapping, and I think that’s great; if only one company does it, it becomes troublesome. There’s also solid-state batteries and battery swapping; they don’t conflict with each other Sometimes you can say it's quite competitive, but the chase is also quite good.

Question: But 2024 is very competitive, how does Nio think about the elimination rounds?

Li Bin: This is a marathon on a muddy road. A hundred years ago in the United States, there were over 1,000 car companies, and in the end, only a few major groups remained. Globally, the top ten companies account for about 80%.

The concentration in the automotive industry is not as high as in other tech companies. Considering the global regional distribution and industry characteristics, we believe that there will still be a considerable number of car companies that can survive. From a global perspective, the concentration will not undergo a dramatic change, but the TOP 10 may shuffle.

I believe that by 2035, five of the top ten global companies will be Chinese, and China will account for 40% of the global market share. We must double our efforts and cannot fall behind.

Question: Leida expects monthly sales to reach 20,000 units next year. If the external competitive landscape changes next year, how will you maintain this expectation?

Li Bin: We will ask ourselves two questions. The first is based on your product, technological competitiveness, and pricing, what would be the upper limit in the target market when combining product and price?

For example, for the Leida L60, if it carries the Tesla label, can swap batteries, is cheaper, and has higher efficiency and better space, how much can it sell is an upper limit; the ET9 has not captured much of the target market in China. This is akin to talent; how much can be achieved depends on brand influence, execution capability, sales service network, and internal management, which is something we can work on. For the team, this is the goal.

We believe that as long as we maximize the upper limit of Leida's products to a reasonable level, we can achieve 20,000 units. Twenty thousand units only account for about 30-40% of Model Y's sales in China, so it's not an unrealistic goal.

Question: Among global automotive brands, there is almost no single model. How does Firefly plan to address this?

Li Bin: From a fundamental business and product logic perspective, we have always hoped to think a bit deeper before proceeding. Firefly's business planning is relatively long-term, and of course, there have been some changes since the initial project establishment, mostly due to external factors.

The goal for Firefly is to deliver in Europe now. The increase in tariffs at the end of 2023 and 2024 was indeed unexpected. Even considering the impact of tariffs, the product strength is still very strong. We have adjusted our market rhythm accordingly. In Europe, we will collaborate more with local partners to quickly establish sales and service networks. In terms of service facilities and infrastructure, having only one product will greatly enhance communication efficiency.

Question: Our multi-brand strategy is for scale, but Firefly may not be a volume car. Isn't this logic contradictory?

Li Bin: Firefly is designed to be the best high-end small car for global users. The success or failure of product definition hinges on the anchored market, including regions, price ranges, and user needs. There are over 10 million small cars globally, with over 4 million in Europe, which is a significant proportion, but domestically it is quite small (1.3 million). This is related to regional driving habits, scenarios, and user preferences There are quite a few small cars in China priced at tens of thousands, but we are positioning this car from a higher perspective. The product strength of Firefly is much stronger than that of Mini, and it has the opportunity to expand this market a bit more. We will accelerate the entry of Firefly into the global market because it only has one model, making it easier to break into the market compared to Nio and Li Auto.

Q: How do we make the Firefly small car not seem "low" in this price range?

Li Bin: We are making breakthroughs in two areas: one is the flagship model, and the other is the small car. There is a gap of six to seven hundred thousand between these two, which feels a bit split. However, if everyone looks at its commonalities, such as safety, design philosophy, and the relationship with user benefits. For example, we talked about Firefly yesterday, discussing agility, ingenuity, and trust. As you can see, although we didn't talk much, at least we demonstrated through some practical scenarios that we have achieved this.

Yesterday, there were indeed some discussions about the lights, but our light is designed to express this angle. From a conceptual perspective, this light is called a "trio," which I think is quite interesting.

Qin Lihong: I believe safety is a technical value system, and each company has its own ranking. Another point is that what we conveyed yesterday is originality. There will always be people who like or dislike the design, but we can proudly say that we are a purely original high-end small car.

Q: How do you view the design controversy surrounding Firefly?

Li Bin: In terms of design orientation, we need to consider the preferences of global users. This car was designed at the Munich Design Center. Last night, a friend asked me if there was a Plan B. Indeed, everyone has different thoughts, which is completely understandable. However, we have conducted in-depth visits to users in 17 countries and are very clear that many designs of European small cars are quite diverse.

Jin Ge: The comments from everyone did not exceed our expectations. Firefly was officially launched in May 2022, and from the day the design concept was born, I knew it would be a topic that needed time to settle. When you first see it, then see it again, it feels different. Our original intention in design is to outline the DNA with the simplest elements, aiming to create a high-end small car that is globally born but originates from China.

Qin Lihong: It is a car with attitude, a brand without a paternalistic vibe. We are looking for this attitude, which can resonate and echo with people.

Q: As a global model, what is the sales target for Firefly?

Li Bin: Firefly will definitely only have one model in China. In the global market, it is a bit difficult for a single model to cover the entire market. From the perspective of Firefly, we will consider developing multiple models based on the needs of different regions, but it won't be too many—perhaps 1-2 models for each market. Because of Firefly's cost and overall structure, it can support us in making multiple models.

Q: Has Firefly considered joining CATL's battery swapping ecosystem? Li Bin: The Firefly is different from NIO's battery pack. Of course, there is a possibility for more cooperation in the battery swapping ecosystem. It will definitely be built faster and more efficiently. We established a battery asset company with CATL four years ago, and we have had many in-depth exchanges in various aspects such as battery swapping, technology routes, asset management, and standards over the past few years.

Question: Did the reservation volume for the ET9 and Firefly released yesterday meet expectations?

Li Bin: The first batch has already sold out. For the ET9 at this price point, users need to experience it before making a final decision; the orders for the Firefly definitely exceeded expectations, and I estimate we will need to ramp up production capacity by the time it launches.

Question: Has NIO learned any experiences from competitors and traditional car manufacturers over the past 10 years?

Li Bin: Starting from user perception experience, domestic peers have done very well in terms of explicit perception experience, which is an area we need to improve. For example, with the Lido L60, we directly included a 50-liter refrigerator; the ET9 features an executive screen, executive desk, and executive refrigerator. We have taken real user scenarios to the extreme.

Question: Are there any specific measures to improve efficiency?

Li Bin: This year at NIO, we launched the "Mining Action" internally, encouraging our colleagues to save wherever possible, and we have basically achieved our goals. Additionally, we will gradually establish an internal decision-making system for ROI. ROI is not just for large finances or big projects; we hope to look at the returns for every small matter. We have eliminated many projects for this NIO Day.

Qin Lihong: I believe that improving efficiency, increasing effectiveness, and saving are always correct, but even more important is what kind of brand NIO is. Will our car owners be proud of this? This is a bottom line we cannot overstep.

Li Bin: Taking NIO Day as an example, from 2017 to now, even when the company was on the brink in 2019, we continued. We neither deceive ourselves nor belittle ourselves; this is actually what makes NIO different from other companies.

Many of the things we do are quite unique and reflect our own thoughts. Of course, some people accept it, and some do not, because this is actually the cost of innovation; sometimes you have to be ahead of others