Understanding the Market | Gold stocks strengthened in the afternoon as market risk aversion sentiment rapidly increased, and the logic for rising gold prices remains unchanged
Gold stocks strengthened in the afternoon, with LINGBAO GOLD rising 14.58%, SD GOLD rising 3.43%, ZHAOJIN MINING rising 2.95%, and CHINAGOLDINTL rising 1.15%. Affected by the uncertainty of Trump's policies, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds declined, while gold prices rose to a two-month high. Analysts pointed out that the rise in gold is mainly due to the decline in the US CPI, an increase in M2 money supply, expectations of interest rate cuts, and global economic uncertainty. It is expected that gold prices in 2024 will be influenced by the US elections and economic data, and in the long term, gold still has room for growth
According to Zhitong Finance APP, gold stocks strengthened in the afternoon. As of the time of publication, Lingbao Gold (03330) rose 14.58% to HKD 4.95; Shandong Gold (01787) rose 3.43% to HKD 14.8; Zhaojin Mining (01818) rose 2.95% to HKD 12.58; China Gold International (02099) rose 1.15% to HKD 43.9.
In terms of news, on January 21, influenced by the uncertainty of Trump's policies, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds fell across the board, and gold prices continued to be strong, jumping to a two-month high. Trump stated that he is considering imposing a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, saying, "I think we will do this on February 1." Stimulated by this statement, market risk aversion quickly intensified, and gold prices surged. Relevant analysis pointed out that the main reasons for the rise in gold include the decline in US CPI data, an increase in M2 money supply, uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, technical support, and global economic uncertainty.
Huayuan Securities released a research report stating that the pullback in gold prices in November 2024 is mainly due to the fallout from the US election event, expectations, and short-term economic data catalysts. Current gold prices may have partially or fully reflected the corresponding marginal changes, and a bottom range has emerged. The upward logic of gold prices remains unchanged, with the dual main lines of "interest rate cut trading" + "Trump 2.0" expected to continue to catalyze. On the other hand, under the background of protectionism and great power competition, central bank reserves provide strong bottom support for gold prices. In the short term, the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 and Trump's tariff policies after taking office may dominate gold price trends. In the long term, under the backdrop of dual easing of US monetary and fiscal policies, contraction of US dollar credit, and de-dollarization, gold is expected to still have upward space in the medium to long term