U.S. Stock Outlook | Trump Signs Cryptocurrency Executive Order, Novo Nordisk's Weight Loss Drug Clinical Trial Achieves Great Success

1. As of January 24 (Friday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.13%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.15%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.15%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.26%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.34%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.95%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.58%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.64%, priced at $75.10 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.63%, priced at $78.78 per barrel.

Market News

Morgan Stanley warns: Dollar bulls beware! "Silent bears" are preparing to strike. Morgan Stanley stated that despite the dollar's dominance sweeping across the market, traders looking to sell the dollar are far more common than people realize. Strategists, including David Adams, wrote in a report: "While there are many bullish on the dollar, and perhaps the most vocal in expressing their views, it seems there are even more 'silent' investors looking to sell the dollar. Many investors are holding idle funds, waiting for the right signal to short the dollar." The team indicated that a catalyst may be on the horizon: inflation data before March could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, while lengthy fiscal negotiations in Congress may disappoint dollar bulls. Strategists also expect that easing trade policies could put pressure on the dollar.

Wall Street's tech-driven bond trading hits new highs, total trading value surpasses $1 trillion for the first time. A method of bond trading that utilizes technology to help companies trade hundreds of securities at once has just reported its best annual performance to date. According to Tradeweb Markets Inc., portfolio trading (which refers to the simultaneous buying and selling of a large basket of bonds) accounted for about 9% of the total trading volume of US corporate bonds in 2024, a record level for such activities, pushing the total value of all trades under this method to exceed $1 trillion for the first time.

Promise fulfilled! Trump signs cryptocurrency executive order, regulatory framework and legislative efforts on the horizon? US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday, fulfilling several of his commitments to the cryptocurrency world. He will establish a cryptocurrency working group to provide industry-related policy recommendations to his team, including proposing regulatory frameworks and legislative efforts. Following this, Bitcoin prices rose in afternoon trading on Thursday Eastern Time, before subsequently falling In the first set of cryptocurrency-related executive actions since Donald Trump took office, he fulfilled his campaign promise by establishing a more favorable regulatory environment for this emerging industry, although cryptocurrency investors had expected him to take action on his first day. On Thursday, Trump reiterated his support for the industry during a virtual speech at the World Economic Forum, stating that he plans to make the United States the "capital of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency."

Trillions of incremental funds are on the way, is a long-term bull market for A-shares imminent? Wall Street anticipates 13 trillion yuan entering the market within three years. Top analysts from Wall Street believe that the latest measures from the Chinese government will inject at least 1 trillion yuan of additional funding support into the A-share market by 2025. The prediction from JP Morgan, a giant in commercial banking, is the most optimistic, forecasting a total injection of 13 trillion yuan of incremental funds over the next three years. With an enormous amount of capital about to flood into the Chinese stock market, these Wall Street giants are beginning to envision a so-called "long-term bull market" for A-shares. According to the latest forecast data, the overall additional purchasing volume from insurance companies and mutual fund companies this year is approximately 1.3 trillion yuan. The institution stated that although this only accounts for about 1.7% of the current total trading market value of A-shares, it expects the inflow of new funds over the next three years to reach between 4 to 13 trillion yuan.

Kazuo Ueda: Economic outlook meets expectations, will continue to raise interest rates, Trump's tariff policy remains unclear. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates on Friday to the highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008, and Governor Kazuo Ueda pointed out that if the economic outlook is realized, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. At the conclusion of a two-day meeting on Friday, the Bank of Japan raised the short-term policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%. The decision passed with 8 votes in favor and 1 against, with member Toyoaki Nakamura expressing opposition. However, he also noted that policy adjustments still need to pay attention to the developments in the economy and inflation. "The timing and pace of adjusting monetary support will depend on the economic and price developments at that time. We have no preset ideas. We will make decisions at each policy meeting based on economic and price developments and risks."

Individual Stock News

Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) weight loss drug clinical trial achieves great success, pre-market up over 10%. Novo Nordisk's experimental weight loss drug CagriSema has shown significant effects in early clinical trials, with patients receiving the highest dose averaging a weight loss of 22% over 36 weeks, while the placebo group actually gained 2% in weight. This result marks the largest increase in a month, boosting investor confidence in the company's product line. The company's pre-market stock price rose over 10%, despite a cumulative decline of about 20% over the past 12 months. CagriSema combines two weight loss mechanisms, differing from the previously disappointing CagriSema trial. Additionally, Novo Nordisk is also researching an oral version of the drug. Affected by this news, the stock price of Danish biotech company Zealand Pharma A/S also rose by 4.8%, as the company is developing drugs based on similar mechanisms Texas Instruments (TXN.US) Q1 earnings guidance misses expectations, industrial and automotive chip markets remain sluggish. Texas Instruments expects earnings per share in the first quarter to be between $0.94 and $1.16; the midpoint of this range is $1.05, significantly lower than the average analyst expectation of $1.17. The sales guidance range has been lowered to $3.74 billion to $4.06 billion, slightly above the expected $3.86 billion. Most of the electronics industry remains mired in a downturn, leading to a decline in the company's sales for nine consecutive quarters. Texas Instruments executives stated that manufacturing costs also impacted profits. The largest share of Texas Instruments' sales comes from industrial equipment and automotive manufacturers, making its forecasts a bellwether for the economy in most parts of the world.

Surgical giant Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US) Q4 performance exceeds expectations, future guidance leans conservatively below expectations. In the fourth quarter, Intuitive Surgical achieved sales of $2.41 billion, exceeding the expected $2.25 billion; the company's adjusted earnings per share were $2.21, easily surpassing the expected $1.79 per share. Compared to the same period last year, Intuitive Surgical's sales grew by 25%, with the installation of 493 new systems significantly contributing to sales growth. Evercore ISI analyst Vijay Kumar recently stated in a report to clients that this figure was 19% higher than expected, contributing two-thirds of the sales outperformance. Among them, 174 were new da Vinci 5 systems.

Indian market drags down, Ericsson (ERIC.US) Q4 profits miss expectations. Ericsson's adjusted EBIT was 9.8 billion Swedish Krona ($894 million), a 33% increase from the same period last year. In contrast, the average analyst forecast was 10.3 billion Swedish Krona. The adjusted operating profit margin was 13.4%, while the average expectation was 14.03%. Fourth-quarter net sales increased by 1% year-on-year to 72.9 billion Swedish Krona, with North America showing an adjusted growth of 54%. The North American business was boosted by a $14 billion contract signed with U.S. operator AT&T Inc., which began to yield benefits in the previous quarter. Revenue also increased in Europe and Latin America, while other markets like India saw significant declines.

Tesla (TSLA.US) launches new Model Y in the U.S., starting price nearly $60,000. On Thursday local time, Tesla launched the new Model Y Long Range All-Wheel Drive version in the U.S., Canada, and Europe, weeks after the model was first introduced in China. The new Model Y is priced at $59,990 in the U.S., which is 25% higher than the previous generation model's price of $47,990. Deliveries are expected to begin in March. The new model is equipped with the "Supervised Full Self Driving" feature, which was previously an optional feature for Model Y, priced at $8,000. With the launch of this model, Tesla now offers four versions of the Model Y in the U.S., with the new model priced the highest, even surpassing the performance version Tempus AI (TEM.US) becomes "Cathie Wood's new favorite"! Over 600,000 shares purchased since 2025. Since 2025, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has significantly increased its holdings in Tempus AI, purchasing over 600,000 shares since the beginning of the year. Ark Invest's interest in Tempus AI began on December 6 of last year, when the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG.US) first bought shares of this medical technology company. Since then, Tempus AI's share in the ARK portfolio has rapidly increased, becoming the tenth largest holding in the flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US); it currently accounts for 3.2% of ARKK's total assets, with a market value exceeding $265 million. Additionally, Tempus AI is the fourth largest holding in the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF, accounting for 5.64%, with a market value close to $68 million.

Boeing (BA.US) Q4 preliminary financial data reveals revenue below expectations, long road to recovery after strikes. Boeing released its preliminary Q4 performance report on Thursday evening Eastern Time, showing sales of $15.2 billion, below Wall Street's expectations of $16.76 billion, with a GAAP loss per share of $5.46. The company will announce its complete Q4 results next Tuesday. The lower-than-expected Q4 revenue is primarily due to a severe strike that previously halted production of most of the company's commercial aircraft and limited jet deliveries. Boeing's commercial airplane division will account for $1.1 billion in accounting charges related to its 767 and the delayed 777X wide-body aircraft, some of which are associated with strike activities. The company stated that an additional $1.7 billion in charges is related to five troubled defense projects, including the KC-46 aerial refueling tanker and the next-generation Air Force One aircraft.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 22:45: U.S. January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value.

Beijing time 23:00: U.S. December existing home sales annualized total (in ten thousand units), U.S. January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value.

Next day Beijing time 2:00: U.S. total number of active drilling rigs nationwide as of the week ending January 24.

Next day Beijing time 4:30: CFTC releases weekly positions report