The Federal Reserve may fall behind on the path to interest rate cuts, and Bank of America is optimistic about the rise of global stock markets
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett stated that the pace of interest rate cuts by global central banks is faster than that of the Federal Reserve, which may drive a broader rise in the stock market. Although the U.S. stock market has performed strongly over the past two years, European stock markets are currently leading. Hartnett believes that if gold prices break through $2,800 and the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index surpasses 20,500 points, it will serve as a catalyst for further risk-taking. U.S. stock funds saw inflows of $7 billion, while European and emerging market funds experienced outflows
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, stated that as global central banks cut interest rates faster than the Federal Reserve, helping economic growth rebound, the stock market rally may become more widespread.
Hartnett's team indicated that the breadth of the stock market "remains poor," noting that the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 index has performed strongly relative to equal-weighted indices and other international stocks. However, if global business activity expands and interest rates outside the U.S. decline, the concentration of the best-performing stocks may begin to broaden more generally.
Over the past two years, the U.S. stock market has soared, driven by the AI boom and strong economic growth boosting profits, significantly outperforming international markets. However, as of January, European stock markets are still leading, as investors expect President Trump's tariffs to be more lenient than initially anticipated.
Hartnett believes that a catalyst for further risk-taking will be gold prices rising above $2,800 per ounce and the NYSE Composite Index breaking through 20,500 points (2.6% higher than current levels). In recent weeks, he and his team have repeatedly stated that they favor stocks in Europe, China, and emerging markets as policies loosen in those regions.
Currently, strategists believe there is a "virtuous cycle" in the U.S., where rising stock prices translate into increased wealth, which is then reinvested into risk assets. This is the "self-fulfilling catalyst of 'American exceptionalism'," Hartnett wrote.
In terms of stock fund flows, as of the week ending Wednesday, U.S. stock funds saw inflows of $7 billion, European funds experienced outflows of $200 million, and emerging market stock funds had redemptions of $3.4 billion