U.S. stock index futures rebounded slightly before the market, spot palladium rose more than 3% during the day, and the market is awaiting inflation data and central bank decisions

On Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 index futures rose by 0.5%, and the S&P 500 index futures increased by 0.2%. This followed Micron Technology's revenue forecast, which exceeded analysts' expectations, driving its stock price up about 8% in after-hours trading, partially offsetting the nearly 2% decline in the Nasdaq index on Wednesday. Meanwhile, European stock index futures remained flat, and Asian stock markets experienced a decline.

At the same time, gold prices remained near record highs, with spot palladium breaking through $1,700 per ounce for the first time since February 2023, rising over 3% during the day. Oil prices retraced gains after Trump delivered a speech that did not escalate geopolitical tensions.

Investors are currently focusing on the U.S. inflation data for November, set to be released on Thursday, as well as the subsequent monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Meanwhile, the market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to the highest level in thirty years on Friday, which has led to a slight appreciation of the yen against the dollar.

• Nasdaq 100 index futures rose by 0.5%, and S&P 500 index futures increased by 0.2%.
• The yen fell by 0.1% to 155.89 dollars.
• The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 4.14%.
• The yield on 10-year UK bonds fell by 4 basis points to 4.47%.
• Brent crude oil rose by 0.8% to $60.18 per barrel.
• Spot gold fell by 0.1% to $4,333.56 per ounce.
• Spot palladium broke through $1,700 per ounce for the first time since February 2023, rising over 3% during the day.

Valuation of Tech Stocks and Concerns Over AI Returns

Although Micron Technology's earnings guidance has boosted the chip sector, concerns about tech stocks have not completely dissipated. The shift from gains to losses in the Nasdaq index on Wednesday reflects that investors are reassessing companies at the forefront of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, questioning whether their high valuations and ambitious capital expenditures are sustainable.

Frank Thormann, a fund manager at Schroders Investment Management, pointed out that the revenue, profit, or cash flow disclosures driven by AI that investors are seeing remain limited. He warned that the current market is increasingly concerned that the actual returns from AI may not match the current market enthusiasm.

Traders are closely awaiting the U.S. inflation data to be released on Thursday for guidance on the interest rate path, but the reliability of this data may be significantly compromised due to disruptions caused by the U.S. government shutdown.

Due to the government shutdown, much of the price information for October could not be collected, and the data collection for November has also been delayed. The upcoming November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will only provide a "partial snapshot" of inflation, with monthly change data for most price categories missing. This lack of data completeness may complicate the market's interpretation of policy prospects.

Trends in Safe-Haven Assets and Commodities

Driven by geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties, gold prices stabilized near record highs in the Asian market on Thursday after rising 0.8% on Wednesday. Spot gold has surged nearly two-thirds this year, poised for its best annual performance since 1979. Platinum continued its strong rebound, with an increase of up to 4%.

Spot palladium broke through $1,700 per ounce for the first time since February 2023, rising more than 3% during the day.

In the oil market, the global benchmark Brent crude retraced earlier gains. Trump did not mention the latest developments in Venezuela during his televised address from the White House, easing market concerns over escalating geopolitical anxieties.

In the currency market, the yen rose slightly against the dollar. The market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to their highest level in thirty years on Friday. The dollar index showed only minor fluctuations.

Divergence in Global Central Bank Policies

The policy paths of major global central banks are beginning to diverge. For the European Central Bank, the market expects it to maintain interest rates at its fourth consecutive meeting, with new economic forecasts likely emphasizing robust growth prospects and confidence that inflation will not deviate excessively from policymakers' targets. In contrast, the Bank of England is expected to announce a rate cut before Christmas, as its focus has shifted from inflation to the struggling UK economy and labor market.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan's actions are closely watched, with traders betting on a rate hike on Friday, which would mark the highest interest rate level for the bank in thirty years. This expectation has supported the strengthening of the yen