Have U.S. solar stocks already found a "golden pit"? Goldman Sachs: Super large-scale computing centers are rewriting the logic of grid demand

Goldman Sachs' latest report indicates that the photovoltaic sector is entering a structural investment window. Although the sector faced pressure in early 2025 due to fluctuations in policy expectations, the current surge in electricity demand driven by data centers is reshaping the growth logic of the U.S. power grid.

According to the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, the report states that photovoltaics have become a core force in the transformation of the U.S. power structure, expected to account for about 54% of new power generation capacity added in 2025. As the electricity demand from data centers continues to exceed expectations, photovoltaics, as a clean energy source with dual advantages in cost and deployment speed, will directly benefit from this long-term demand momentum.

In terms of valuation, U.S. photovoltaic stocks are currently significantly below their historical highs and exhibit a clear discount compared to other power-themed sectors. Among them, publicly traded companies focusing on utility-scale photovoltaics particularly demonstrate attractive allocation potential, providing investors with a lower-cost entry point for positioning in the power structure transformation.

Data Center Revolution: A New Engine for Photovoltaic Demand is Starting

Goldman's utility team recently raised its growth forecast for U.S. electricity demand, increasing the compound annual growth rate estimate from the previous 2.5% to 2.6%. This adjustment is primarily driven by strong electricity demand from data centers, which are expected to contribute about 120 basis points of growth by 2030, with artificial intelligence data centers accounting for 70 basis points of that.

According to the report's calculations, to meet the future electricity demand of data centers, the U.S. will need to add approximately 82 gigawatts of power generation capacity by 2030. This estimate is based on the assumption that about 60% of data centers will require new power supply facilities, and the energy structure of this new capacity is expected to be 60% from natural gas and 40% from renewable energy. Within this framework, photovoltaic power generation is expected to contribute about 21 gigawatts of new installed capacity.

Utility-Scale Photovoltaics Show Steady Growth, Residential Market Faces Short-Term Adjustment

Goldman Sachs predicts that the installed capacity of utility-scale photovoltaics in the U.S. will grow by about 3% year-on-year in 2026, reaching approximately 40 gigawatts.

However, the U.S. residential photovoltaic market will face an adjustment period in the same year, primarily due to the expiration of the 25D tax credit policy for cash and loan sales at the end of 2025. Goldman Sachs expects that the installed capacity of residential photovoltaics will decline by about 20% year-on-year in 2026.

Industry management indicates that the quarter-on-quarter decline in installed capacity may be most pronounced between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. However, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the first quarter of 2026 will become the low point for the year, after which the pace of installed capacity deployment is expected to gradually recover.

Valuation Low Point Highlighted: Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Stocks Remain at Historical Lows

Although U.S. photovoltaic stocks have rebounded from the lows of early 2025, their valuation levels still present significant attractiveness.

Specifically, utility-scale photovoltaic companies have a price-to-earnings ratio based on fiscal year 2026 earnings expectations that is significantly lower than the overall power sector and the market average. This valuation discount provides investors with an opportunity to position themselves in the theme of the U.S. power structure transformation at a relatively low cost. Considering the significant advantages of photovoltaics in terms of generation costs and deployment speed compared to new natural gas and nuclear power projects, the current valuation level may have already reserved space for subsequent growth