Top Ten Global Economic Mysteries of 2026: Will the AI Bubble Burst? Will Gold Break Through 5000? Will Zelensky Compromise?

As the New Year of 2026 approaches, against a backdrop of an increasingly unpredictable world, senior journalists at the Financial Times have made several predictions for 2026, covering key issues from U.S. tariff policies, Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations to the artificial intelligence bubble and quantum computing.

The FT's prediction accuracy last year hit a historic low, with 7 out of 20 predictions going wrong. Journalists misjudged the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, U.S. interest rate cuts, and the relationship between Musk and Trump, while predictions on Bitcoin prices and electric vehicle sales were also far from reality.

Nevertheless, FT journalists continue to make bold forecasts for 2026. They expect Trump's tariff policies to face setbacks, the AI bubble to burst, gold prices to exceed $5,000, and Ukrainian President Zelensky not to be forced to abandon the Donbas region. These predictions are based on an in-depth analysis of the current political and economic landscape.

Trump's Tariff Offensive Will Encounter Obstacles

Trade editor Alan Beattie predicts that Trump's average tariff level will be lower by the end of the year. Although the U.S. president threatened to impose tariffs on multiple countries to increase fiscal revenue, protect key industries, force political alliances with trade partners, and reduce the trade deficit, he found the reality to be much more complex than anticipated.

The stock market crash in April, China's strong countermeasures, concessions from other countries, and rising consumer prices have all weakened the momentum of his tariff offensive. By the end of the year, a ruling from the Supreme Court may force Trump to replace existing tariffs with different ones, but he will largely abandon the threat of new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and reduce other tariffs through temporary deals.

Zelensky Will Not Be Forced to Abandon Donbas

FT Paris bureau chief Ben Hall predicts that Ukrainian President Zelensky will not be forced to abandon the Donbas region as part of a peace agreement. Russia demands that Ukraine relinquish a quarter of the territory in Donetsk Oblast and a small part of Luhansk Oblast that has not been conquered during nearly four years of full-scale war. U.S. negotiators also seem to believe this is the price Kyiv must pay for peace.

However, for military, constitutional, and political reasons, abandoning the remaining areas of Donbas is too dangerous for Zelensky. Establishing a demilitarized zone that neither side controls is neither feasible nor acceptable to Moscow or Kyiv. Only an unlikely collapse of the front lines would force Ukraine to surrender.

AI Bubble Will Burst but Impact Will Be Limited

FT markets editor Katie Martin predicts that the AI bubble will burst in 2026. She points out that three years after the launch of ChatGPT, the "easy money" in AI trading is no longer available. Investors have begun to question tech giants more rigorously, with chip giant Nvidia facing challenges from Google's AI advancements, and Meta's market value also experiencing a correction.

"In this sense, the hype has peaked," Martin wrote. Even if AI fails to deliver on its promises in terms of functionality or value, those large, diversified companies will remain unscathed, which will help limit any broad market sell-off to 10% to 15%. However, the bubble is expected to deflate in 2026, with venture capital and private equity facing embarrassing losses, and small companies likely to face significant failures

Global Central Banks Will Continue to Cut Interest Rates

FT economics editor Chris Giles predicts that, with the notable exception of Japan, central banks around the world are likely to further cut interest rates in 2026. Under the leadership of the United States and the new Federal Reserve Chairman (possibly Kevin Hassett), officials globally are willing to ignore residual inflation and lower rates to what they consider a new normal level or even lower. The Federal Reserve will point to technology-driven rapid growth, viewing it as a replay of the productivity boom of the 1990s.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that monetary policy is in good shape, but if growth slows, the central bank will be willing to further stimulate the economy.

Private Credit Defaults Will Increase

Financial journalist Brooke Masters predicts that more private credit "cockroaches" will emerge and cause significant losses. Since 2022, the default rate on private loans has nearly doubled as higher interest rates have tested companies that borrowed heavily during the near-zero interest rate period. Although the Federal Reserve has begun to cut rates, this is still not enough for some companies.

Many companies will need more time or additional cash injections, and some will follow in the footsteps of First Brands and Tricolor, falling into chaotic bankruptcies. This will result in losses for investors, but unless the U.S. economy performs much worse, it will not undermine the stability of the broader financial system.

Gold Will Break Through $5,000

Commodity journalist Leslie Hook predicts that gold prices will break through $5,000 per ounce. The strong upward trend in gold may continue, although at a more moderate pace. Driving factors may include central bank purchases and investors viewing gold as a hedge against impending fiscal deficits, geopolitical divisions, and the depreciation of "fiat" currencies.

In a world where uncertainty becomes the new normal and cracks appear in the dollar's role as a reserve currency, there is further upside potential for the gold bull market.

Quantum Computers Are Not Yet Mature

FT columnist John Thornhill predicts that there will not be powerful and commercially viable quantum computers by 2026, but the realization is not too far off. Several tech companies have developed primitive quantum computers that are currently used in parallel with classical computers to perform operations that neither can accomplish independently. Both hardware and software are making rapid progress in leveraging the peculiar properties of subatomic physics.

Even if the timeline is uncertain, governments are indicating that businesses should start protecting sensitive data in preparation for the post-quantum era. Powerful quantum computers will render most of today's encryption methods obsolete.

Tesla's Market Share Will Continue to Decline

FT predicts that Musk's Tesla will not reverse its declining market share trend in the U.S., EU, and China. Tesla continues to face pressure in the U.S. as the federal tax credit for electric vehicles expires and the president is rolling back regulations to reduce vehicle emissions. The outlook in China and Europe is less predictable. Despite the launch of a more affordable version of the flagship Model Y, most factors leading to a decline in Tesla's market share in 2025 will remain unchanged Its competitors will launch more attractively priced new models. Meanwhile, Musk is focusing more on investing in AI and deploying autonomous taxis rather than revitalizing Tesla's traditional automotive business.

Home Robots Coming, but Limited Functionality

Tech journalist Elaine Moore predicts that home robots will debut in 2026. In October, Palo Alto startup 1X began accepting pre-orders for its humanoid robot Neo, wrapped in a slim, soft knitted bodysuit. Customers were informed that delivery could be made in 2026 for a price of $20,000. Embodied AI is bringing robotic butlers from virtual environments into the real world.

Companies like Tesla, Figure AI, and Unitree are competing to build autonomous models capable of performing household chores. However, replicating human dexterity is an expensive ongoing endeavor—even just for folding clothes. Reports indicate that Neo is not yet fully autonomous. This is a product aimed at wealthy early adopters.

Political Landscape Restructuring Ahead

In the U.S., columnist Edward Luce predicts that the Democrats will regain the House of Representatives in the midterm elections in November, but will narrowly lose the Senate. Controlling the House will enable the Democrats to block Trump's agenda and investigate his administration's misconduct. A third impeachment of Trump cannot be ruled out—though it may also be equally futile.

In the UK, columnist Miranda Green predicts that Keir Starmer will face a leadership challenge. The Labour Party may perform poorly in the local elections in Scotland, Wales, and parts of England in May, while Nigel Farage's Reform Party may succeed, potentially fueling changes at the top. However, challengers will face significant obstacles, as leadership challengers need to secure the support of 20% of Labour MPs and pass through the party's national executive committee.

In Japan, Tokyo bureau chief Leo Lewis predicts that Sanae Takaichi will still be Prime Minister of Japan a year from now. Although statistics show that the chances of a Japanese Prime Minister serving more than a year are low, Takaichi represents a new phenomenon in Japanese politics: she is a vocal advocate during a time of rising populism, maintaining popularity even as inflation persists and interest rates rise. A general election is expected in the spring to consolidate power.

In the Middle East, editor Andrew England predicts that, despite Trump's hopes of achieving normalization after brokering a fragile ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, the likelihood is slim. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman insists that Saudi Arabia will only normalize relations if there is a "clear path" to establishing a Palestinian state.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu strongly opposes this. Even if he loses in this year's elections, it is unlikely that Israel will significantly soften its stance. Given the anger in the Muslim world over Israel's actions in the Gaza war, it is hard to see Crown Prince Mohammed changing his position