China's GDP is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year in 2025, with a GDP growth of 4.5% in the fourth quarter

Preliminary calculations indicate that the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 14,018.79 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% at constant prices compared to the previous year. By industry, the value added of the primary industry is 933.47 billion yuan, an increase of 3.9% compared to the previous year; the value added of the secondary industry is 4,996.53 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5%; and the value added of the tertiary industry is 8,088.79 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4%. By quarter, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter is 5.4% year-on-year, 5.2% in the second quarter, 4.8% in the third quarter, and 4.5% in the fourth quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the GDP growth in the fourth quarter is 1.2%.

1. Grain production increased, and livestock farming grew steadily

The total grain production for the year is 714.88 million tons, an increase of 8.38 million tons, or 1.2% compared to the previous year. Among them, summer grain production is 149.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.1%; early rice production is 28.51 million tons, an increase of 1.2%; and autumn grain production is 536.62 million tons, an increase of 1.5%. By variety, wheat production is 140.07 million tons, basically unchanged; corn production is 301.24 million tons, an increase of 2.1%; rice production is 209.04 million tons, an increase of 0.7%; and soybean production is 20.91 million tons, an increase of 1.3%. The total production of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry meat for the year is 100.72 million tons, an increase of 4.2%, exceeding 100 million tons for the first time. Among them, pork production is 59.38 million tons, an increase of 4.1%; beef production is 8.01 million tons, an increase of 2.8%; mutton production is 4.96 million tons, a decrease of 4.2%; and poultry meat production is 28.37 million tons, an increase of 6.7%. Milk production is 40.91 million tons, an increase of 0.3%; and egg production is 34.98 million tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The total number of live pigs slaughtered is 71.973 million heads, an increase of 2.4%; and the number of live pigs at the end of the year is 42.967 million heads, an increase of 0.5%.

1. Industrial production grew rapidly, with good growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing

The value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% for the year. By the three major categories, the value added of the mining industry increased by 5.6%, manufacturing increased by 6.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.3%. The value added of equipment manufacturing increased by 9.2%, and the value added of high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.4%, with growth rates exceeding that of industrial enterprises above designated size by 3.3 and 3.5 percentage points, respectively. By economic type, the value added of state-controlled enterprises increased by 4.6%; joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.3%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 3.9%; and private enterprises increased by 5.3%. By product, the output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased by 52.5%, 28.0%, and 25.1%, respectively. In December, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.49% month-on-month. In December, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the business activity expectation index was 55.5%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points. From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 66,269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%.

1. The service industry grew steadily, with good development in modern services The added value of the service industry increased by 5.4% compared to the previous year. Among them, the added value of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transportation, warehousing and postal services, wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering increased by 11.1%, 10.3%, 5.2%, 5.0%, and 4.9% respectively. In December, the service production index increased by 5.0% year-on-year. Among them, the production index of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and financial services increased by 14.8%, 11.3%, and 6.5% respectively. From January to November, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size increased by 7.8% year-on-year. In December, the business activity index of the service industry was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the business activity expectation index of the service industry was 56.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. Among them, the business activity index of industries such as telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, monetary financial services, and capital market services were all above 60.0%, indicating a high prosperity range.

Fourth, the market sales scale expanded, and service retail grew rapidly.

The total retail sales of consumer goods for the year reached 50,120.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year. By the location of the operating units, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas were 43,297.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6%; the retail sales of consumer goods in rural areas were 6,823.0 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1%. By consumption type, the retail sales of goods were 44,322.0 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8%; catering revenue was 57,982 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%. Sales of basic living goods and some upgraded goods showed good growth, with retail sales of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, sports and entertainment products, household appliances and audio-visual equipment, and grain and oil food products above designated size increasing by 20.9%, 17.3%, 15.7%, 11.0%, and 9.3% respectively. The national online retail sales reached 15,972.2 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% compared to the previous year. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods were 13,092.3 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year, and decreased by 0.12% month-on-month. The annual service retail sales increased by 5.5% compared to the previous year. Among them, retail sales of cultural and recreational services, communication information services, tourism consulting and leasing services, and transportation services grew rapidly.

Fifth, fixed asset investment decreased year-on-year, while manufacturing investment maintained growth.

The total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the year was 48,518.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% compared to the previous year; excluding real estate development investment, the total fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5%. By sector, infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2%, manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 88,101 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7%; the sales amount of newly built commercial housing was 83,937 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%. By industry, investment in the primary industry increased by 2.3%, investment in the secondary industry increased by 2.5%, and investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 7.4%. Private investment decreased by 6.4%; excluding real estate development investment, private investment decreased by 1.9%. In high-tech industries, investment in information services and aerospace and aircraft manufacturing increased by 28.4% and 16.9% respectively In December, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.13% month-on-month.

1. Stable growth in goods import and export, continuous optimization of trade structure

The total value of goods import and export for the year was 45.4687 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% compared to the previous year. Among them, exports were 26.9892 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.1%; imports were 18.4795 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.5%. The import and export of private enterprises increased by 7.1%, accounting for 57.3% of the total import and export value, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous year. The import and export to countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 6.3%, accounting for 51.9% of the total import and export value. The export of high-tech products increased by 13.2%. In December, the total value of goods import and export was 4.263 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 2.5359 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%; imports were 1.7271 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.4%.

1. Overall stability in consumer prices, moderate rebound in core CPI

For the year, the consumer price index (CPI) for residents remained unchanged from the previous year. By category, prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 0.7%, clothing prices increased by 1.5%, housing prices increased by 0.1%, prices of daily necessities and services increased by 0.9%, transportation and communication prices decreased by 2.6%, education, culture, and entertainment prices increased by 0.8%, healthcare prices increased by 0.8%, and prices of other goods and services increased by 9.3%. Among food, tobacco, and alcohol prices, pork prices decreased by 6.1%, fresh vegetable prices decreased by 3.9%, grain prices decreased by 1.0%, and fresh fruit prices increased by 1.2%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.7%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year. In December, the consumer price index for residents increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.2% month-on-month. For the year, the producer price index for industrial producers decreased by 2.6% compared to the previous year; in December, it decreased by 1.9% year-on-year and increased by 0.2% month-on-month. For the year, the purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.0% compared to the previous year; in December, it decreased by 2.1% year-on-year and increased by 0.4% month-on-month.

1. Overall stability in employment situation, stable urban survey unemployment rate

For the year, the average urban survey unemployment rate nationwide was 5.2%. In December, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%. The survey unemployment rate for local registered labor was 5.3%; the survey unemployment rate for migrant labor was 4.7%, among which the survey unemployment rate for migrant agricultural labor was 4.4%. The urban survey unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.1%. The average weekly working hours for employees in enterprises nationwide was 48.6 hours. The total number of migrant workers for the year was 30.115 million, an increase of 1.42 million compared to the previous year, a growth of 0.5%. Among them, local migrant workers numbered 12.109 million, an increase of 0.1%; out-of-town migrant workers numbered 18.006 million, an increase of 0.8%.

1. Continuous growth in residents' income, rural residents' income growth rate faster than urban

For the year, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% compared to the previous year, with a real increase of 5.0% after deducting price factors. By place of residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 56,502 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.3%, with a real increase of 4.2%; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 24,456 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.8%, with a real increase of 6.0% The median disposable income per capita for national residents is 36,231 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.4% compared to the previous year. According to the income distribution among national residents divided into five groups, the disposable income per capita for the low-income group is 10,150 yuan, the lower-middle-income group is 22,702 yuan, the middle-income group is 35,536 yuan, the upper-middle-income group is 55,586 yuan, and the high-income group is 103,778 yuan. The annual per capita consumption expenditure for national residents is 29,476 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.4% compared to the previous year, with a real increase of 4.4% after excluding price factors. The proportion of per capita food, tobacco, and alcohol consumption expenditure to total per capita consumption expenditure (Engel's coefficient) is 29.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year; the per capita service consumption expenditure for national residents increased by 4.5%, accounting for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure, unchanged from the previous year.

1. The total population has decreased, and the urbanization rate continues to rise.

At the end of the year, the national population (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government, and active military personnel, excluding residents from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and foreign personnel living in these 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities) is 1,404.89 million, a decrease of 3.39 million compared to the end of the previous year. The total number of births for the year is 7.92 million, with a birth rate of 5.63‰; the total number of deaths is 11.31 million, with a death rate of 8.04‰; the natural population growth rate is -2.41‰. In terms of gender composition, the male population is 716.85 million, and the female population is 688.04 million, resulting in a total population sex ratio of 104.19 (with females as 100). In terms of age composition, the population aged 16-59 is 851.36 million, accounting for 60.6% of the national population; the population aged 60 and above is 323.38 million, accounting for 23.0% of the national population, of which the population aged 65 and above is 223.65 million, accounting for 15.9% of the national population. In terms of urban and rural composition, the urban resident population is 953.80 million, an increase of 10.30 million compared to the end of the previous year; the rural resident population is 451.09 million, a decrease of 13.69 million; the proportion of the urban population to the national population (urbanization rate) is 67.89%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year. In terms of education level, the average years of education for the population aged 16-59 reached 11.3 years, an increase of 0.1 years compared to the previous year