Vietnam has set a target of "10% annual growth," far exceeding the previous unachieved target of 6.5%-7%

Vietnam's top leader, Nguyen Phu Trong, established an ambitious economic growth target at the party congress, attempting to counter global trade headwinds through administrative reforms and infrastructure investment.

According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on January 20, the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam officially opened on January 20 at the National Convention Center in Hanoi. Vietnamese President Pham Minh Chinh delivered the opening speech, and General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong presented a report submitted by the 13th Central Committee to the congress.

Trong pledged at the meeting that despite facing global turmoil, Vietnam will achieve an average annual economic growth rate of over 10% before 2030. This target is significantly higher than the country's goal of 6.5%-7.0% set for the period of 2021-2025, which was not actually completed in the previous round.

At the same time, according to Reuters, Trong pointed out in his speech that Vietnam is facing "many overlapping difficulties and challenges," including natural disasters, supply chain disruptions, and intense strategic competition. As a core agenda of this congress, Vietnam will establish an economic development roadmap up to 2030. A document submitted to the congress shows that the new growth target is set at no less than 10%.

Ambitious Growth Blueprint and Administrative Reforms

The "average annual growth of 10%" target proposed by Trong is at the core of Vietnam's grand economic narrative. Wall Street Insight reported that according to a report by Deutsche Bank's chief economist Juliana Lee, the Vietnamese government plans to join the ranks of "high-income countries" by 2045. To achieve this leap, Trong called for strategic breakthroughs in the three pillars of institutions, infrastructure, and human resources.

Trong emphasized that institutions should become a competitive advantage. He pledged to further reform public administration, streamline government agencies and administrative levels, and reduce red tape to improve the business environment. Previously, during his brief tenure as General Secretary of the Communist Party, he had already initiated the most significant bureaucratic reforms in decades.

In terms of infrastructure, Vietnam plans to make large-scale investments. Trong stated that infrastructure must be developed to adapt to climate change and ensure regional and global connectivity. Wall Street Insight reported that Vietnam is preparing to fund growth by expanding the fiscal deficit (planned to expand to about 5% of GDP) and attracting foreign investment, with a goal of attracting $150 billion to $200 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) between 2026 and 2030.

Manufacturing Resilience and Tariff Pressure

Despite facing external pressures, recent economic data from Vietnam still shows resilience.

Data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam indicates that the GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 8.46% year-on-year, far exceeding economists' estimates of 7.7%, marking the fastest fourth-quarter growth since 2011. This growth is primarily attributed to strong performance in manufacturing and exports, which continued to grow even in the context of the Trump administration imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnam in August 2025.

In the fourth quarter of last year, Vietnam's manufacturing sector grew by over 10%, becoming the core engine driving the economy; exports surged nearly 24% year-on-year, setting a record trade surplus with the United States.

However, the lagging effects of tariffs cannot be ignored. Reuters pointed out that the impact of U.S. tariffs may gradually become apparent in the coming months. To this end, Vietnam is seeking to strengthen trade relations with other partners to diversify risks and safeguard national interests.

Concerns Over Credit Expansion and Capital Market Upgrades

However, behind the high growth targets lies financial risk.

As Vietnam pursues high growth, vulnerabilities in its financial system are beginning to surface. According to Bloomberg, data from the central bank of Vietnam shows that credit growth reached 17.9% last year, significantly outpacing the 14% growth in deposits. This imbalance has led to liquidity shortages in the banking sector.

Rating agency Fitch Ratings had previously issued a warning, stating that the lending pace of Vietnam's banking sector is faster than the overall economic growth rate, and this credit-driven growth model is exacerbating financial risks. To alleviate pressure, regulators have implemented measures to inject liquidity into the market, including dollar swap transactions