Musk's Davos Blueprint: Public Sale of Optimus Robot Next Year, Robotaxi Will Be "Very Popular" in the U.S. This Year, AI May Surpass Humans

Tesla CEO Elon Musk outlined a grand vision encompassing humanoid robots, autonomous driving, space exploration, and artificial intelligence (AI) at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He predicted that AI could surpass human intelligence by the end of this year, and Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is expected to be available for public sale by the end of next year.

On Thursday, January 22, local time, Musk made a rare appearance at the Davos Forum, engaging in a dialogue with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. He revealed that Tesla has deployed some Optimus robots in its factories to perform simple tasks and expects these robots to handle more complex work by the end of this year. Musk stated that if Tesla is confident in the reliability, safety, and functionality of the robots, public sales will commence by the end of next year.

During the conversation, Musk also mentioned that Tesla's autonomous taxi service, Robotaxi, is expected to be widely deployed in the U.S. this year. "By the end of this year, this service will be very, very popular across the United States," he said, noting that Robotaxi services without in-car safety supervisors have already begun in Austin, Texas. SpaceX hopes to achieve full reusability of its Starship rocket this year. He predicted that by the end of this year, or at the latest next year, AI will become "smarter than any human."

During Musk's speech, Tesla's stock price continued to rise, increasing by more than 4% during Thursday's midday trading, closing up over 4%, reaching its highest closing level in over two weeks since January 5, and erasing most of the declines since the beginning of 2026 after two consecutive days of gains.

Tesla's core automotive business has seen a decline in delivery volumes for two consecutive years due to an outdated product line and the cancellation of U.S. electric vehicle subsidies. The directions of autonomous driving, AI, and robotics mentioned by Musk are viewed as key focuses for Tesla. Musk stated in early September last year that about 80% of Tesla's value would come from the robot project Optimus, which he first proposed four years ago.

Optimus Robot to Be Launched for Sale in 2027

Musk provided a more specific timeline for the commercialization of the Optimus humanoid robot.

He stated that public sales will begin when Tesla is confident that the robot possesses "extremely high reliability, extremely high safety, and extremely high functionality," at which point users will be able to "essentially ask it to do almost anything you want." Musk indicated that this will happen next year.

Musk had previously predicted that humanoid robots would eventually outnumber humans, with billions of machines deployed not only in factories but also in homes, assisting with tasks ranging from dishwashing to childcare. At the Davos Forum, he said:

If we have nearly free or completely free artificial intelligence and ubiquitous robots, the global economy will experience explosive growth, reaching an unprecedented scale. What does this mean for you? The number of AI-driven robots will exceed humans and meet all human needs. At some point, you will be unable to imagine what else you could ask a robot to do, as goods and services will be so abundantTesla is currently using some Optimus robots in its factories to perform basic tasks. Musk predicts that by the end of 2026, these robots will be able to "perform more complex tasks."

Although Musk often talks about the potential of Optimus, he has previously been relatively vague about production timelines and goals. In a financial report conference call in January 2025, he stated that a "very rough guess" is that Tesla will start delivering Optimus to other companies in the second half of 2026. Earlier this week, Musk also reminded that the initial production of Optimus and Tesla's latest model, Cybercab, will be "extremely slow."

Progress in Autonomous Driving and Space Exploration

In the field of autonomous driving, Musk claimed that this "is essentially a solved problem." He stated that by 2027, his company's self-driving taxis will be "very popular" in the United States.

Musk mentioned that Tesla's full self-driving software is updated weekly at times, and some insurance companies offer half-price insurance to customers using the technology due to its safety record. Tesla has launched robot taxi services in several cities and expects to deploy them on a large scale in the U.S. by the end of this year, with supervised full autonomous driving approval in Europe possibly obtained next month.

In terms of space exploration, Musk stated that SpaceX hopes to achieve complete reusability of rockets this year through Starship. He described Starship as "the largest vehicle ever flown," and this breakthrough would reduce the cost of access to space by 100 times, bringing it below $100 per pound. SpaceX has demonstrated the ability to capture rocket boosters on the launch pad but has not yet attempted to recover and reuse the Starship spacecraft.

Musk also discussed plans to launch solar AI satellites in the coming years. He noted that solar panel efficiency in space is five times that on Earth due to continuous sunlight and no atmospheric interference. He predicts that "the lowest cost for deploying AI will be in space," which will be achieved within two to three years.

Predictions on AI Development and Energy Infrastructure

Musk made bold predictions about AI development, stating that AI could become "smarter than any human" by the end of this year or "at the latest next year." This prediction highlights his judgment on the rapid advancement of AI technology.

In terms of energy production, Musk stated that an area of solar panels measuring 100 square miles could power the entire United States. He revealed that teams from SpaceX and Tesla are working to establish an annual solar manufacturing capacity of 100 gigawatts in the U.S. within about three years.

Musk's appearance at Davos was quite unexpected, as he had previously criticized the forum as "boring" and lambasted the World Economic Forum for "becoming an unelected world government that people never asked for and do not want." In 2022, he posted on social media: "What is the World Economic Forum/Davos Forum? Do they want to be the boss of the Earth?"

In the dialogue, Musk stated that the overall goal of his companies is to maximize the possibility of "civilization having a beautiful future" and to extend "consciousness beyond Earth."

Aliens do not exist; human aging is a "very easy problem to solve"

Elon Musk engaged in a dialogue with his friend, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, at the forum, starting off by discussing his values and making a few jokes about aliens.

"We have 9,000 satellites operating in orbit, but we've never encountered a situation where we had to avoid an alien spacecraft," Musk said. "We need to assume that life and consciousness are extremely rare, perhaps only humans exist."

Musk also stated that he hasn't spent much time studying human aging, but he predicts that a solution will eventually be found, "When we find the cause of aging, we will discover that the answer is obvious."