The U.S. earnings season is approaching, and CEOs are collectively warning: American consumption is being dragged down by geopolitical uncertainties

As the U.S. earnings season progresses, corporate executives are issuing collective warnings about consumer prospects. Despite economic data showing robust growth, CEOs across sectors from aviation and consumer goods to industrials are indicating that geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are making consumers cautious, complicating corporate planning.

Several leading companies in the industry have released warning signals in their latest earnings reports. Delta Air Lines has taken a cautious stance on profits amid geopolitical uncertainties, while United Airlines has warned that global tensions could dampen travel demand. Executives from Procter & Gamble and McCormick have stated that consumers are remaining cautious. 3M experienced its largest drop since April due to disappointing outlooks, with the company noting that the macro environment for its consumer and automotive businesses remains uncertain. The performance of industrial distributor Fastenal and logistics company JB Hunt Transport Services has also disappointed investors.

These pessimistic sentiments contrast with many key economic indicators. Last year's data showed robust economic growth and resilient consumer spending. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Industry Research, as of Thursday's close, 80% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded analyst expectations.

Companies are releasing earnings reports at a rare intersection of political turmoil and global uncertainty. After the S&P 500 achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive years, stock market valuations are high, leaving little room for error. Corporate executives now face a challenging task: setting the tone for their companies' outlooks for the coming year amid President Trump's ongoing reshaping of U.S. trade relations and international policies.

U.S. Companies Issue Collective Warnings of Growth Pressures at the Start of the Year

United Airlines stated that U.S. military actions in Venezuela have had a "measurable negative impact" on bookings in the Caribbean region. CEO Scott Kirby warned that geopolitical risks could disrupt what initially appeared to be a strong start to the year.

The Chicago-based airline also noted that Trump's proposed credit card interest rate cap plan has brought an unexpected blow. This reflects the airline's deep ties to the lucrative co-branded card partnerships and the payment industry—this proposal had previously led to declines in financial stocks earlier in the earnings season.

Meanwhile, consumer goods giants are also feeling the pressure on demand. McCormick CEO Brendan Foley stated during Thursday's conference call, "The environment in our key markets is characterized by volatility and continues to face pressures from inflation, geopolitical and trade uncertainties, as well as the risk of rising unemployment. Overall consumer confidence remains low." The stock price of this spice and seasoning manufacturer hit its largest drop in two years, with fourth-quarter performance and full-year outlook both falling short of expectations.

Procter & Gamble, the maker of Pampers diapers and Tide detergent, also pointed out similar disruptions, although it expects sales to grow over the next six months. Both Procter & Gamble and McCormick indicated that government shutdowns have temporarily halted food assistance programs, impacting low-income consumers and subsequently affecting sales.

Industrial companies noted that demand resistance remains persistent. Fastenal's CFO stated that the U.S. economy "continues to send mixed signals, especially in the industrial sector." At JB Hunt Transport Services, executives indicated that the freight market remains unstable at the beginning of the year—despite immigration policies limiting labor supply, a dynamic that typically supports higher transportation rates.

3M's stock price hit its largest drop since April after releasing a lower-than-expected outlook. The manufacturer of Post-it notes, roofing granules, and electronic materials stated that the macro environment for its consumer and automotive businesses remains uncertain.

Policy Uncertainty Dominates Corporate Planning

Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, stated that policy uncertainty "absolutely" overshadows positive news for businesses:

"It really makes it harder for management to plan... But which CEO is going to say, 'The instability of White House policies makes it hard for me to manage my business'?"

Companies are releasing performance results at a rare intersection of political turmoil and global uncertainty. The challenge for CEOs is how to set future outlooks for their companies against the backdrop of Trump’s ongoing reshaping of trade relations and international policies.

Meanwhile, some aspects of Trump’s policy agenda may provide recent relief for consumers. Investors are betting that excess tax refunds and potential stimulus measures could help support spending among low-income households, at least temporarily. The White House has placed affordability at the core of its messaging, from credit card rate initiatives to efforts to force tech companies to bear the rising costs of electricity.

Eric Clark, Chief Investment Officer at Accuvest Global Advisors, stated:

"It's a midterm election year, so the rhetoric has already started. Who knows if this will really benefit consumers? But it might make them feel that help is on the way, which ultimately helps boost sentiment."