Under tightened immigration, the U.S. may experience its first-ever population decline!

The United States may experience its first population decline since its founding in 2026, a historic turning point that has arrived decades earlier than previously predicted by official agencies. Bloomberg Businessweek analysis points out that this dramatic change is primarily driven by a sharp reduction in net immigration and persistently low birth rates.

The current Trump administration's strict immigration policies are accelerating the arrival of this critical point. The policies have significantly reduced net immigration inflows, making it difficult to continue offsetting the low birth rates and rising mortality rates caused by an aging population. Experts generally agree that regardless of political stance, the stricter the immigration restrictions, the sooner the U.S. population will enter a stagnation or decline phase.

Population size is the cornerstone of a country's economic total. This potential turning point will have profound economic implications, potentially leading to a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth and a continued shrinkage of the labor force. The long-term impact will depend on whether the population decline is a cyclical fluctuation or a structural new normal. Notably, the population growth rate in the U.S. in 2026 may even be lower than that of Germany, which has long faced aging pressures, which will have significant repercussions on the global economic narrative.

Historic Turning Point Arrives Half a Century Early

Since its founding, the continuous attraction of global talent and population expansion has always been a core advantage of the United States. However, according to Bloomberg, just as the U.S. prepares to celebrate its 250th anniversary in 2026, at least one authoritative estimate indicates that the country may experience its first true population decline in history that year.

The long-term forecast released by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2023 had previously indicated that the turning point for population decline was expected in 2081. However, based on current trends, this timeline has been significantly advanced. Even if this milestone is not ultimately confirmed in 2026, experts on both sides of the immigration policy debate generally agree: the stricter immigration policies during Trump's second term are accelerating the arrival of this critical point.

Economic Logic of Immigration Restriction Policies

The Trump administration is committed to fulfilling its core campaign promise of significantly reducing the immigrant population. White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson stated:

“The U.S. has never lacked talent to expand its workforce. President Trump’s agenda to create jobs for American workers reflects this administration's commitment to fully tapping into this untapped potential while adhering to our mission of enforcing immigration laws.”

The government firmly believes that, despite widespread dissent from economists, reducing immigration will directly provide more job opportunities and higher wage levels for domestic workers, and alleviate living costs from housing to healthcare by lowering overall demand. To this end, authorities have initiated large-scale deportation actions and simultaneously tightened controls on both legal and illegal entry, officially declaring that the era of mass immigration, which they believe has led to the "decline of Western civilization," has ended.

In a speech at Davos on January 21, Trump referred to the occurrence of "reverse immigration" (i.e., net outflow) in the U.S. in 2025 for the first time in at least 50 years, saying, “Wow, that’s really great.” This statement further clarified his policy direction and value judgment.

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