Elon Musk's team visits China secretly to focus on what in the photovoltaic industry?

On February 4th, rumors regarding Elon Musk's team visiting several photovoltaic companies in China sparked significant attention from the market and investors.

Following the news, the Chinese photovoltaic sector reacted immediately. Several A-share and Hong Kong-listed photovoltaic-related companies saw their stock prices rise by double digits in a short period, leading to speculation about potential collaboration opportunities.

Among them, Jinko Solar's stock price surged 36% within two trading days after the news broke, before falling 6.07% on February 5th; GCLSI's stock price increased by a cumulative 26% over three trading days; TZE's stock price rose by a cumulative 16% over three trading days; and JSG's stock price skyrocketed 33% within two trading days, before dropping 9.85% on February 5th.

According to a report by the Securities Times, on February 4th, Jinko Solar and GCLSI confirmed that they hosted a visiting team from Musk's company, but did not disclose specific business plans or cooperation agreements. Companies generally emphasized that these exchanges remain at the preliminary communication stage in terms of technology and industry, and no cooperation has been initiated with the relevant teams.

This action quickly sparked heated discussions in the market. Analysts pointed out that this is not just an ordinary corporate visit, but reflects the forward-looking strategies of global tech giants in the new energy sector. With the rapid growth in demand for artificial intelligence computing power, the need for stable and efficient electricity has become increasingly prominent, making the photovoltaic industry a focal point for capital markets and the tech industry.

Musk Ignites Market Sentiment

An investment manager stated that this round of stock price increases is primarily driven by market sentiment and expected trading, rather than any substantial changes in the companies' fundamentals. The core reason for the increase is that investors interpret Musk's interest in solar energy as a signal that tech giants are extending upstream into the energy sector.

As a dominant force in global photovoltaic manufacturing, Chinese companies are becoming an unavoidable core of Musk's space energy blueprint. Feng Fan, founder of the photovoltaic technology company Yanhe Technology, pointed out that currently, Chinese companies account for over 70% of global production capacity and shipment volume from equipment, materials to components, forming the true infrastructure layer of the global photovoltaic industry. In other words, if Musk wants to promote a large-scale, low-cost space photovoltaic route, he will "inevitably rely on China," regardless of whether he localizes deployment in the United States.

Regarding the hot performance of domestic photovoltaic concept stocks, foreign media have also provided relevant analysis: from a long-term perspective, most institutions remain optimistic about the development prospects of China's photovoltaic industry. After all, Chinese suppliers have significant advantages in manufacturing cost control, completeness of the supply chain, and large-scale engineering capabilities, which are difficult to replace by other countries in the short term.

However, several institutions have also warned that such emotional surges often come quickly and retreat just as fast. If there is a lack of clear orders, cooperation agreements, or capital investments in the future, stock prices may face downward pressure.

Meanwhile, the domestic industry has also begun to release "cooling" signals intensively.

On the evening of February 4th, Liu Yiyang, executive secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, stated that space photovoltaic technology is still in the early stages of exploration and verification, and it is too early to make a clear judgment on the technical direction. At the "Photovoltaic Industry 2025 Development Review and 2026 Situation Outlook Seminar" on February 5th, Wang Shijiang, deputy director of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out that the photovoltaic industry is currently undergoing a new round of deep adjustment, and the deep-seated supply-demand mismatch in the industry has not yet been resolved, posing significant challenges to the operations of companies Regulating industry competition will become a top priority this year.

The Photovoltaic Track Focused on by Musk

According to relevant disclosures, the companies visited by Musk's team cover the entire photovoltaic industry chain, including equipment, silicon wafers, battery components, and cutting-edge technology directions, especially showing higher attention to next-generation high-efficiency technologies such as Heterojunction (HJT) and Perovskite. These two technological routes are considered to have advantages in theoretical efficiency and long-term cost reduction potential.

A photovoltaic technology practitioner explained the importance of these two tracks:

In terms of efficiency, compared to traditional PERC batteries (a mainstream high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon solar cell), HJT has higher open-circuit voltage and temperature coefficient advantages, and there is still room for improvement in mass production efficiency. HJT has lower power generation losses in high-temperature environments, generates more electricity per unit area, and requires fewer high-temperature steps and materials during production, thus having both efficiency improvement potential and continuous cost reduction potential.

The attention on perovskite batteries is mainly due to two major advantages: first, they can maintain good power generation performance even in insufficient light conditions such as cloudy days and low light, and in the vacuum and low-temperature environment of space, theoretical efficiency can be further improved, making them very suitable for space power generation. Second, perovskite has the potential for lightweight and flexibility, even being stored in a curled form during launch and then deployed for use after reaching orbit, significantly reducing launch volume and payload weight, which gives it a unique advantage in space photovoltaic scenarios.

For Musk, whether it's AI data centers, supercomputing clusters, or SpaceX's ground facilities and potential space energy concepts, the core demand is to obtain as much stable power output as possible per unit of land and capital investment. HJT and perovskite correspond to the technological logic of "efficiency and cost priority."

However, the realistic path for cooperation still needs to return to the fundamentals of the industry.

A researcher in the photovoltaic industry pointed out that Musk's contact or potential cooperation with domestic photovoltaic companies may not be limited to simple photovoltaic component procurement, but could also involve customized battery solution development around specific application scenarios and long-term stability verification in extreme environments. Whether this entry ticket can ultimately be realized still depends on a fundamental question: Can this technology truly be manufactured on a large scale, stably, and at low cost?

Speculation on Expectations, Insufficient Fundamental Support

Morningstar analyst Wang Cheng pointed out that after this round of increases, the stock prices of some photovoltaic companies have approached or even briefly exceeded their estimated reasonable valuation range. In the short term, if further increases are to occur, clearer fundamental catalysts are needed, rather than being driven by a single event.

Analysts from multiple institutions generally believe that even if Chinese photovoltaic companies really obtain orders related to SpaceX or other Musk-related businesses in the future, the impact on the overall revenue structure may be limited. Space photovoltaics or extreme application scenarios still belong to marginal explorations in terms of economics, with more significance in technology validation and strategic signaling, rather than immediately translating into large-scale commercial profits On the evening of February 4th, relevant companies announced one after another, denying the existence of specific executable projects in collaboration with Elon Musk's team, and indicated that the industrialization process of "space photovoltaics" has significant uncertainty.

From a business logic perspective, the economic viability of space photovoltaics has yet to be validated. After all, the high launch costs, complex on-orbit deployment and energy transmission systems, as well as long-term operational reliability issues, keep it closer to frontier technology exploration. In the absence of a clear cost-reduction path, its commercial value is more reflected in technological reserves and strategic positioning.

In the industry’s view, the greater significance of Musk's related movements is the reinforcement of signals regarding future energy forms and industrial directions. Behind this wave of photovoltaic concept enthusiasm, what is truly ignited is not just stock price sentiment, but also the public's boundless imagination about the global "next-generation energy foundation."

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

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