The global memory market is facing a severe shortage, with Qualcomm and Arm issuing warnings: chips will squeeze smartphone production capacity

The global shortage of high bandwidth memory (HBM) is rapidly spreading from data centers to the consumer electronics sector, with the smartphone industry becoming the primary pressure point. This "memory crisis" triggered by the surge in demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure is creating structural shocks to the global electronics supply chain.

Qualcomm, the world's largest smartphone chip manufacturer, and British semiconductor design company Arm Holdings have both issued warnings, stating that the ongoing shortage of HBM will directly limit smartphone production. As the largest supplier of smartphone processors globally, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon stated during the earnings call:

"From an industry perspective, the tight supply of memory and rising prices may directly determine the overall market size limit for the entire mobile phone market."

According to Amon, some customers have indicated that they will cut smartphone production plans this year. Reports suggest that several major smartphone manufacturers are adjusting their shipment targets for 2026, with one company's adjustment reportedly as high as 20%.

This shortage is widely viewed as a medium- to long-term structural challenge. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger bluntly stated: "As far as I know, the shortage situation will not ease." Market research firm TrendForce further predicts that 70% of the high-end memory chips produced this year are expected to be absorbed by data centers, while the allocation share for consumer electronics will continue to be squeezed.

AI Demand Squeezes Consumer Market

The demand for data centers driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure is creating a significant "siphon effect" on the global supply of high bandwidth memory (HBM), continuously pressuring the consumer electronics sector. Micron Technology pointed out that the surge in demand for AI-related high-end semiconductors has exacerbated the memory chip shortage in the past quarter, and this situation is expected to persist beyond this year.

Goldman Sachs analyst William Chan recently warned clients, emphasizing that the current memory shortage "is real and accelerating," with the fundamental driving force coming from the enormous demand for AI infrastructure, which has led to a severe supply gap for consumer electronics products such as smartphones and personal computers that rely on high bandwidth memory.

Market prices have intuitively reflected the tight supply situation. According to data from Amazon price tracking platform CamelCamelCamel, the price of Crucial Pro DDR5 64GB memory sticks has surged from $145 to $790 over the past six months, an increase of more than four times, highlighting that the supply-demand imbalance in the industry chain is rapidly transmitting to the end consumer market.

Industry Giants Lower Expectations

The impact of the memory shortage is continuously transmitting and deepening throughout the entire electronics supply chain. Chip manufacturer MediaTek admitted during an analyst call this week that the supply situation "is dynamically evolving." Goldman Sachs analyst Allen Chang has recently lowered the global personal computer shipment forecast for 2026 to 2028 due to memory constraints.

Nintendo has become an early direct victim of soaring memory costs. Its stock price has recently come under pressure, primarily attributed to the rising prices of key components, including HBM, which will significantly erode its product profit margins ** Goldman Sachs analysts warned as early as last December that Nintendo would face HBM supply difficulties.

Arm, which derives most of its revenue from technology licensing in the smartphone industry, has also not been spared from this round of shortages. Industry insiders stated last week: "If you plan to buy any consumer electronics, personal computers, or smartphones... now is the time." This statement indirectly reflects the market's general expectation of supply chain tightness and future price trends.

Shortages May Last for Years

Analysts and industry executives generally believe that this memory crisis will not end anytime soon. The pessimistic forecast from Intel's CEO reflects the consensus in the industry that, against the backdrop of sustained strong demand for artificial intelligence, the tight supply of memory for consumer electronics may become the norm.

TrendForce's forecast indicates that data centers will account for the vast majority of high-end memory chip production this year, meaning that the supply available for consumer electronics is extremely limited. This structural imbalance is unlikely to be reversed in the short term, as memory manufacturers are prioritizing higher-margin data center orders.

For investors, this shortage has reshaped the investment logic in the electronics industry. Consumer electronics manufacturers face the dual pressure of rising costs and limited output, while memory chip manufacturers benefit from rising prices and surging demand from data centers