Next week's heavy schedule: US Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI release, China's inflation, AI and robotics Spring Festival battle

February 9 - February 15 Weekly Major Financial Events Overview, all times in Beijing:

The core themes for next week are as follows:

Focus on Sino-U.S. inflation in macro data. Due to a brief government shutdown in the U.S., the non-farm payroll report has been postponed to Wednesday, February 11, to be released alongside the CPI. A combination of "weak employment + strong inflation" would pose the greatest market risk; domestic January social financing and inflation data will also be released, as the market urgently needs to verify the economic "good start" performance.

Next is the "Spring Festival offensive" in the tech industry. The Spring Festival has become the core battleground for AI application promotion, with giants like Alibaba and ByteDance launching subsidy wars worth billions. New models like DeepSeek and Grok are poised for launch; in the capital market, software companies like AppLovin and Unity will validate whether their recent "AI disruption of software leading to a crash" is justified. The earnings reports from SMIC, NetEase, and Applied Materials will guide the direction of the semiconductor and internet sectors; at the same time, several hard tech companies like XianDao Intelligent and Aixin YuanZhi are set to IPO in Hong Kong.

Furthermore, new geopolitical dynamics. Trump has confirmed a new round of negotiations with Iran, and the U.S. military has unusually convened high-ranking officials from 34 countries, further increasing the complexity of geopolitical games, necessitating attention to oil prices and safe-haven asset reactions.

Lastly, volatility in the precious metals market. Next week, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will intensively adjust the margin ratios for trading gold, silver, and copper futures.

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Economic Indicators

• China's Financial and Inflation Data

China will release January financial and inflation data. Caitong Securities expects January CPI to slightly decline by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI is expected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year; Zheshang Securities predicts a year-on-year increase of 0.6% for CPI and a year-on-year decline of 1.8% for PPI.

In terms of financial data, the quality of the "good start" is under scrutiny, with Caitong Securities estimating new social financing of 7.38 trillion yuan in January; Zheshang Securities has a more conservative forecast, expecting new social financing of 6.9 trillion yuan.

• U.S. Non-Farm Employment and Inflation Data Rarely Released Together

Due to a recent "brief government shutdown," the U.S. non-farm payroll data will be postponed to February 11, leading to the unusual occurrence of both the U.S. non-farm employment report and CPI being released together next week Currently, the market's expectations for January's non-farm employment growth are concentrated in the range of 60,000 to 80,000. If the number falls below this range, it will ignite discussions about interest rate cuts. The CPI data should focus on seasonal price pressures at the beginning of the year. A combination of "weak employment + strong inflation" would pose the greatest market risk.

Financial Events

• Iran Situation: Trump claims the U.S. will negotiate with Iran again (Event of the week)

The market will pay attention to the new round of negotiations planned between the U.S. and Iran. According to CCTV News, U.S. President Trump has publicly confirmed that dialogue will take place next week.

However, the market expects that breakthroughs in negotiations will be difficult due to fundamental differences in positions: the U.S. demands a comprehensive agreement covering nuclear, missile, and regional activities, while Iran insists that negotiations focus solely on nuclear issues, with the lifting of sanctions as the core demand.

• AI and Robotics Battle Escalates: Qianwen, Doubao, Yuanbao, and Wenxin launch activities such as red envelopes and free orders (Event of the week)

In February, the global AI sector will showcase a series of key developments. In China, the period around the Spring Festival will become a core window for promoting AI applications.

From February 1 to February 17, "Yuanbao" will launch a cash activity worth 1 billion yuan. Baidu Wenxin will continuously distribute 500 million yuan in cash red envelopes from January 26 to March 12. On February 6, Alibaba's Qianwen APP announced an investment of 3 billion yuan to kick off its Spring Festival campaign, and on February 7, it extended the validity of the free order card to February 28, fully integrating with ecological services such as Hema and Taobao Flash Purchase.

Additionally, Yushu Technology announced on January 26 that it has become the "2026 Spring Festival Gala Robot Partner" of CCTV, marking the third appearance of Yushu robots on the CCTV Spring Festival Gala.

Source: The Paper

At the same time, several Chinese companies plan to release new generation models: DeepSeek is expected to launch a powerful V4 model in February; ByteDance and Alibaba also plan to release Doubao 2.0 and Tongyi Qianwen 3.5 models respectively around the Spring Festival.

Overseas, there will also be multiple product updates and commercialization initiatives in February. Musk's xAI plans to make significant upgrades to its large language model Grok in February. OpenAI is reportedly set to launch chatbot advertising services this month. Apple plans to release a more personalized version of Siri powered by Google's Gemini. At the beginning of February, Anthropic launched an AI tool called Claude Cowork that can directly operate computers to complete software tasks, which caused a drop in the stock prices of some traditional SaaS companies.

• Munich Security Conference to be held from February 13 to 15, EU defense ministers to meet in Brussels

The Munich Security Conference will be held from February 13 to 15, with discussions expected to focus on NATO's future and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additionally, next week, EU defense ministers will meet in Brussels to exchange views on supporting Ukraine

• Report: Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff to Hold "Rare" Meeting, Military Officials from 34 Countries Summoned

According to Global Times citing U.S. media reports, as the U.S. military continues operations against so-called "drug trafficking ships," Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Kane is convening a "rare" meeting with senior military officials from 34 countries in the Western Hemisphere. ABC reported that according to a statement provided to the media by the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, the meeting is scheduled for February 11, where defense ministers and senior military representatives from 34 countries will participate to enhance consensus on common security priorities and deepen regional cooperation.

• Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange: Adjust Margin Ratios for Gold, Silver, Copper, and Other Futures Contracts

Shanghai Futures Energy: Starting from the settlement at the close on February 9, the price fluctuation limits and trading margin ratios are adjusted as follows: the price fluctuation limit for international copper futures contracts is adjusted to 10%, the margin ratio for hedging positions is adjusted to 11%, and the margin ratio for general positions is adjusted to 12%.

Shanghai Futures Exchange: Starting from the settlement at the close on February 9, the price fluctuation limit for gold futures contracts is adjusted to 17%, the margin ratio for hedging positions is adjusted to 18%, and the margin ratio for general positions is adjusted to 19%; the price fluctuation limit for silver futures contracts is adjusted to 20%, the margin ratio for hedging positions is adjusted to 21%, and the margin ratio for general positions is adjusted to 22%.

Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that starting from the settlement at the close on February 9, the trading margin standards for methanol, paraxylene, PTA, short fiber, and bottle chip futures contracts are set at 10%, with a price fluctuation limit of 9%.

Shanghai Gold Exchange: Starting from the settlement at the close on February 9, the margin ratios for contracts such as Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), Au (T+N1), Au (T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 are adjusted from 17% to 18%.

In addition, on February 13, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange will not have night trading on the trading day before the New Year’s Eve.

• Tesla to Stop FSD's "One-Time Payment Model"

Elon Musk announced that Tesla will stop the "one-time payment model" for FSD after February 14. Tesla currently offers the FSD system in the U.S. for a one-time payment of $8,000 or a monthly subscription of $99. By the end of 2025, approximately 12% of Tesla vehicles are expected to subscribe to the FSD service.

• Amazon Leo Satellite Launched into Space

Amazon's low Earth orbit satellites will be launched on February 12 by Arianespace. The satellite communication network has been renamed from the "Kuiper Project" to Amazon Leo, and 180 satellites have already been deployed into space. This launch will send the first batch of 32 Leo satellites, with a planned constellation size of over 3,000 satellites, aiming to provide network connectivity services to the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, and the UK by the end of the first quarter of 2026, covering the network usage needs of users, businesses, and governments

• Cleveland Federal Reserve President Harker, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic, and others deliver speeches; European Central Bank President Lagarde discusses the EU economy

Next week, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Federal Reserve President Harker will speak on "Banking and Economic Outlook." 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic will discuss monetary policy and economic prospects. 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan will also deliver a speech. European Central Bank President Lagarde will attend a discussion on the state of the EU economy and the activities of the European Central Bank.

Earnings Reports and Hong Kong Stock IPO Dynamics

• SMIC, NetEase, Applovin, Applied Materials, Coreweave

Earnings season continues, with a focus on the recently volatile AI applications and software stocks, as well as key technology companies.

Software companies like Unity, AppLovin, S&P Global, and Robinhood, which are at the center of the storm, will validate whether their recent stock price declines are justified. Meanwhile, industry chain companies like Cisco and Applied Materials, which "sell shovels to AI giants," will provide the latest descriptions of AI demand. Companies in the OpenAI industry chain, such as Coreweave, are also under close scrutiny.

Additionally, fast-food giants like McDonald's and Coca-Cola will release their earnings reports. Coinbase will also announce its latest performance. Mining giant Vale will release its fourth-quarter production report on January 27 and its earnings report on February 12.

In terms of Chinese concept stocks, the gaming revenue of NetEase and the recovery guidance of the semiconductor industry from SMIC are of great interest.

• Aixinyuan Semiconductor's Hong Kong IPO expected to list on February 10

Chip manufacturer Aixinyuan Semiconductor recently announced plans to raise HKD 2.96 billion through a Hong Kong IPO and plans to list on February 10. The IPO is arranged by CICC, Guotai Junan, and Bank of Communications, and has begun accepting subscriptions from retail and institutional investors.

• Lanqi Technology's Hong Kong IPO, expected to start trading on February 9

Chinese chip design company Lanqi Technology is going public in Hong Kong, aiming to raise up to approximately HKD 7 billion (USD 902 million). This issuance has received strong support from cornerstone investors, including Alibaba and JP Morgan, with a robust performance forecast of up to 66% growth in net profit by 2025, highlighting the market's high recognition of its growth potential in the AI and data center chip sectors. The company expects its stock to begin trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 9

• XianDao Intelligent Hong Kong IPO, expected to start trading on February 11

XianDao Intelligent has applied for a Hong Kong IPO, seeking to issue 96.3 million shares, with the upper end of the price guidance range set at HKD 45.80. The stock is expected to be priced on February 9 and will begin trading on February 11.

Energy Reports, Industry Conferences, and Other Events

• 2026 Consensus Hong Kong Conference

The 2026 Consensus Hong Kong Conference will be held from February 10 to 12 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre (HKCEC).

• New York Fashion Week Begins

New York Fashion Week begins and runs until February 16.

• International Energy Week to be held in London from February 10 to 12

International Energy Week will take place in London from February 10 to 12, gathering global leaders to address key issues in energy transition. The Oslo Energy Forum will be held concurrently.

• Africa Mining Investment Conference

Africa's largest mining investment conference, the Africa Mining Investment Conference, will be held in Cape Town until February 12.

• OPEC to release monthly crude oil market report

OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report (specific release time to be determined, generally around 6-9 PM Beijing time).

• 2026 Palm Oil and Lauric Oil Price Outlook Conference

The Palm Oil and Lauric Oil Price Outlook Conference will be held in Kuala Lumpur until February 11.

• Bangladesh National Election Date Set for February 12

According to CCTV News, on December 11, 2025, the Bangladesh Election Commission announced that the national election in Bangladesh is scheduled for February 12, 2026.

• Hang Seng Index Company to announce fourth quarter results

The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the fourth quarter results on February 13.

• People's Bank of China: CNY 150 billion one-month treasury cash management deposit bidding

The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct a bidding for CNY 150 billion of one-month treasury cash management deposits (Phase II) through the central treasury cash management commercial bank deposit business system from 9:00 to 9:30 AM on February 10, 2026. The operation amount is CNY 150 billion, with a term of one month (28 days), starting on February 10, 2026, and maturing on March 10, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays), with bidding conducted through interest rate bidding and single price bidding for participating banks in the central treasury cash management commercial bank deposit business.

• Beijing's old-for-new car subsidy program launched, with a maximum subsidy of CNY 20,000

According to CCTV News, starting from February 9, Beijing will implement a new old-for-new car subsidy program, with a maximum subsidy amount of CNY 20,000. According to the officially released "Beijing 2026 Old-for-New Car Subsidy Implementation Plan," it includes two types of subsidies: "scrapping and updating" and "replacement and updating." "Scrapping and updating" refers to "scrapping an old car and purchasing a new one." If a new energy passenger car is purchased, a subsidy of 12% of the new car sales price will be granted, with a maximum subsidy amount of CNY 20,000

• From February 15th 0:00 to February 23rd 24:00, tolls for small passenger cars on national highways will be waived

Gao Bo, head of the Transportation Service Department of the Ministry of Transport, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that during this year's Spring Festival holiday, from February 15th 0:00 to February 23rd 24:00, tolls for small passenger cars with 7 seats or fewer on national highways will be waived.

• The Ministry of Finance will issue 14 billion yuan of government bonds in Hong Kong

According to relevant work arrangements, the Ministry of Finance will issue the first phase of RMB government bonds for 2026 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on February 11th, with an issuance scale of 14 billion yuan. Specific issuance arrangements will be announced in the Central Maturity Unit (CMU) of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's debt instruments.

• SK Hynix will cancel 8.6 billion USD worth of treasury stock on February 9th

According to Bloomberg, SK Hynix plans to cancel approximately 12.2 trillion won (about 8.6 billion USD) worth of treasury stock, aimed at enhancing shareholder returns. The memory chip manufacturer announced on Wednesday that it will cancel about 15.3 million shares of treasury stock on February 9th