"KUAISHOU-W vs ByteDance" Who is stronger? Goldman Sachs: There is no "winner takes all," but AI will significantly change the value distribution in the entertainment industry

Despite the high attention that Seedance 2.0, recently launched by ByteDance's subsidiary, has garnered in the market, Goldman Sachs believes that the AI video generation field is not a "winner-takes-all" zero-sum game. KUAISHOU-W and ByteDance's Seedance 2.0, among other leading models, will benefit from the rapidly expanding market, and advancements in AI technology will reshape the value distribution across the entire entertainment industry.

On February 13, according to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, investors are highly focused on the competitive landscape between the two major platforms following the public launch of Seedance 2.0 on February 12. Goldman Sachs analysts Lincoln Kong, Ronald Keung, and Luqing Zhou stated in their latest research report that KUAISHOU-W 3.0 was upgraded on February 5, launching several days ahead of Seedance 2.0, with both achieving significant breakthroughs in audio-video consistency, video length (15 seconds), and narrative control.

Although some testers believe that Seedance 2.0 performs better in terms of fluency and multi-scene coherence, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that KUAISHOU-W 3.0 remains competitive in film-level detail and pricing advantages, and continues to rank among the world's top models in third-party benchmark tests. More importantly, the firm expects the global AI video generation market size to grow tenfold in the next five years, reaching approximately $29 billion by 2030, which is sufficient to accommodate multiple leading players coexisting.

KUAISHOU-W 3.0 vs. Seedance 2.0: Technical Comparison and Market Positioning

Goldman Sachs' latest report provides a detailed comparison of the technical capabilities and market strategies of the two major platforms.

The research report states that the KUAISHOU-W 3.0 series includes Kling Video 3.0, Kling Video 3.0 Omni, Kling Image 3.0, and Kling Image 3.0 Omni, with major upgrades including:

Native multilingual and dialect audio generation, video length extended to 15 seconds, multi-shot narrative capabilities, text retention within images, and film-level realistic output. Among them, Kling Video 3.0 Omni offers advanced generation features based on reference videos, capable of replicating the visual and auditory characteristics of subjects and supporting multi-shot storyboard production.

In contrast, Seedance 2.0 began closed testing on February 6 and was opened to the public on February 12.

Goldman Sachs noted that based on user feedback on social media, this model excels in understanding physical laws, the fluency of natural movements, and the "realistic" quality of human representation, capable of generating complete long videos containing multiple clips, scenes, camera angles, and emotional rhythms from a single prompt. Its "all-encompassing reference" feature supports multi-modal inputs such as images, audio, and video, achieving more precise control.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that the strategic positioning of KUAISHOU-W 3.0 primarily targets enterprises and professional users, with overseas market penetration as a core focus, allowing KUAISHOU-W to expand its user base with positive gross margins. In contrast, Seedance 2.0 targets the C-end market, placing more emphasis on entertainment needs. In terms of pricing, although KUAISHOU-W 3.0 has increased its price compared to the previous O1 and 2.6 Motion Control versions, it still holds a significant price advantage compared to overseas competitors

Video Generation Market Landscape: A Non-Zero-Sum Game with Multiple Leading Companies Coexisting

Goldman Sachs believes it is still too early to determine the winners in the AI video generation/application market. Even if there are "winners," it is likely to be multiple companies rather than a single "winner-takes-all" scenario.

The analysts expect the global AI video generation and editing market size to expand rapidly, growing tenfold over the next five years, from approximately $3 billion in 2025 to about $29 billion in 2030.

The market expansion is primarily driven by the surge in AI penetration and adoption rates in advertising videos and entertainment video production (such as short films, short dramas, and movies/TV series), while qualitative leaps in model capabilities and paradigm shifts in the video production industry will accelerate this process. A larger market pie will benefit leading models, including Keling.

The research report points out that, according to third-party benchmarks (such as Artificial Analysis), Keling maintains top model capabilities in the global market. Goldman Sachs' tracking of Sensor Tower data shows that Keling's user numbers and revenue have surged significantly since the end of December last year, with monthly revenue in January increasing by at least 30% to 50%. A strong start is expected in 2026, with upside risks to the annual revenue forecast of $280 million.

AI Transforming the Entertainment Industry Value Chain: Enhanced Value of Upstream IP Design and Distribution Platforms

The release of Jimeng 2.0 has sparked market attention on the broader impact on the entertainment industry, covering areas such as long and short videos, games, music, and advertising.

Goldman Sachs believes that the enhancement of multimodal AI capabilities will significantly lower the barriers to video creation, leading to nearly unlimited content supply in the medium term. Although AI tools can help individuals realize their creativity more easily, the ability to produce quality products and differentiate IP and design concepts remains crucial.

It is still too early to assess the impact on distribution platforms such as video/music streaming platforms or game distribution centers. However, the existing user communities, user insights, and traffic/algorithm advantages of distribution platforms remain key differentiating factors.

Therefore, as Jimeng and other AI models become more mature, Goldman Sachs believes that the industry value chain will shift upstream, with IP/creative design and distribution platforms having higher added value.

This means that while AI tools lower the production threshold, companies with high-quality IP, creative design capabilities, and strong distribution networks will occupy a more advantageous position in the new value distribution