Asian Billionaires' Capital Flow: Dubai "No Longer Stable," Benefiting Hong Kong and Singapore?

The war in Iran is shaking Dubai's status as a global wealth center, putting pressure on the Asian capital that has been flowing into the Middle East for years to be reallocated.

Following the Iranian missile attack, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reportedly requested their employees in Dubai to refrain from going to the office, and other financial institutions have also begun offering temporary departure options to their staff. Several financial advisors noted that client sentiment has clearly become more cautious—some investors are delaying their investment plans in the Middle East, while more are assessing whether to reduce their asset allocation in the region if the conflict continues.

This wealth reassessment involves numbers that cannot be ignored. Boston Consulting Group estimates that the scale of foreign assets registered in the UAE will reach approximately $700 billion by 2024. In recent years, wealthy individuals from India and Indonesia have continued to flock to Dubai. Yann Mrazek, managing partner of Dubai wealth consulting firm M/HQ, pointed out that about a quarter of the 2,270 family foundations registered in the UAE are owned by Asians.

If Asian billionaires decide to relocate some of their assets, Singapore and Hong Kong will be the most likely destinations. Nick Xiao, CEO of the multi-family office Annum Capital in Hong Kong, stated that some Asian investors are re-evaluating their previous decisions, and funds may gradually flow back to Hong Kong or Singapore.

The Test of War on Wealth Center Status

Until late February, Dubai still represented "a broader horizon" for private banking practitioners: wealthy clients gathered, no taxes to pay, and living costs were much lower than in Singapore. However, as the Iranian conflict escalates, this pattern is being disrupted.

Reports indicate that Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have notified their employees in Dubai to refrain from going to the office; other banks are offering temporary departure options to their staff, but the number of respondents is currently limited.

Several financial advisors described the anxiety expressed by clients. Some have chosen to delay their investment deployments in the Middle East; others are assessing whether to systematically reduce their asset weight in the region if the conflict evolves into a protracted war. This uncertainty, combined with the ambiguous statements from the U.S. and Israel regarding the duration of the war, leaves those holding property, settling families, and having assets in the Middle East in a dilemma.

New Ports Emerging as Alternatives

The potential decline in Dubai's wealth attraction has brought Singapore and Hong Kong into discussions about asset allocation restructuring.

Nick Xiao clearly pointed out that some Asian investors are refocusing their attention on Hong Kong or Singapore. Alvin Tan, Minister of State for Trade and Industry in Singapore, stated when asked whether funds from Dubai might flow to Singapore that the wealth centers have a "complementary relationship," and that Singapore is continuously taking measures to enhance its attractiveness to businesses and capital.

However, not all funds are in a hurry to leave. Several private banking insiders noted that some clients still choose to remain in the UAE. They pointed out that Singapore's tightening compliance requirements in recent years have made it difficult for some clients to open accounts, and banks are under greater pressure to verify the sources of wealth; in contrast, the processes in Dubai remain more convenient

The Vulnerability Behind $70 Billion

The potential economic cost of this incident reflects the scale and vulnerability of Dubai's wealth ecosystem.

According to data from Boston Consulting Group, the offshore assets registered in the UAE have increased to approximately $700 billion in 2024, a figure that represents years of global wealth continuously migrating to Dubai. Yann Mrazek from M/HQ points out that Asian capital holds a significant share, with about a quarter of family foundations registered in the UAE having Asian backgrounds.

Currently, as the geopolitical situation remains unclear, the final pattern of capital flows is yet to be observed. For private banking practitioners and wealth advisors deeply rooted in Dubai, this re-examination triggered by war may have only just begun