Haitong International: Raises the target price of Li Auto to HKD 83.29, supported by product cycles and technological investments for long-term development
Haitong International released a research report, raising the target price for Li Auto to HKD 83.29, maintaining a "Neutral" rating. The report pointed out that Li Auto's revenue in the fourth quarter of last year was RMB 28.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35%, with automotive sales revenue of RMB 27.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 36%. The vehicle gross margin fell to 16.8%. It is expected that revenue will reach RMB 112.3 billion in 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 2.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 78%. Despite recent sales pressure, the long-term growth outlook remains optimistic, with expected revenues of RMB 122.2 billion, RMB 153.8 billion, and RMB 164.6 billion from 2026 to 2028
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Haitong International released a research report stating that Li Auto (02015) achieved revenue of 28.8 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year, a year-on-year decrease of 35%, which is basically in line with market expectations; among them, automotive sales revenue was 27.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36%, mainly affected by the decline in quarterly delivery volume. Quarterly deliveries were approximately 110,000 units, maintaining a relatively high scale among new forces. The valuation for Li Auto is set at a price-to-sales ratio of 1.3 times for 2026, raising the target price to HKD 83.29, and maintaining a "neutral" rating.
The report pointed out that Li Auto's profitability is affected by changes in product structure and price competition, with vehicle gross margin retreating from previous highs, with a vehicle gross margin of 16.8% in the fourth quarter of last year. The company is expected to achieve revenue of 112.3 billion yuan in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of revenue exceeding 100 billion and maintaining profitability, but the non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 78%.
Due to recent sales pressure on the company, profitability is expected to be affected by factors such as purchase tax subsidies, inventory clearance, and rising raw material prices. The report holds a cautious view in the short term but believes that long-term growth remains promising. The report forecasts the company's revenue expectations for 2026 to 2028 to be 122.2 billion, 153.8 billion, and 164.6 billion yuan, respectively flat, up 12%, and newly introduced
