Goldman Sachs: Downgrades Li Auto-W rating to "Neutral" and lowers target price to HKD 74
Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the performance of Li Auto-W for the fourth quarter of 2025 met expectations, but the sales and gross margin guidance for the first quarter and the full year of 2026 fell short of expectations. Goldman Sachs lowered the target price for Li Auto from HKD 93 to HKD 74, and downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral." The firm expects Li Auto to enter a period of expanding net losses for two consecutive quarters, with weak sales growth and pressured vehicle gross margins, mainly due to a lack of new model launches, rising raw material and memory costs, and an increased proportion of low-margin models. After Li Auto announced its fourth quarter performance for 2025, the firm revised down its forecasts for 2026 to 2028, lowering the sales forecast by 5% to 22%, based on management's guidance for 2026 sales being below expectations and a slowdown in the launch pace of refreshed models; the gross margin forecast was lowered by 0.4 to 1.0 percentage points, based on the first quarter and full year guidance for 2026 being below expectations, as well as a decrease in sales and revenue; therefore, the net profit forecast was revised down by 21% to 34%
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that Li Auto-W (02015) announced its Q4 2025 performance in line with expectations, but the sales and gross margin guidance for Q1 2026 and the full year fell short of expectations. Goldman Sachs lowered its target price for Li Auto from HKD 93 to HKD 74, and downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Neutral." The firm expects Li Auto to enter a period of expanding net profit losses for two consecutive quarters, with weak sales growth and vehicle gross margins under pressure, mainly due to a lack of new model launches, rising raw material and memory costs, and an increased proportion of low-margin models.
After Li Auto announced its Q4 2025 performance, the firm revised its forecasts for 2026 to 2028, lowering the sales forecast by 5% to 22%, based on management's guidance for 2026 sales being below expectations and a slowdown in the launch pace of refreshed models; the gross margin forecast was lowered by 0.4 to 1.0 percentage points, based on the Q1 2026 and full-year guidance being below expectations, as well as a decrease in sales and revenue; therefore, the net profit forecast was reduced by 21% to 34%
