Tesla 'Sets the Line' for Q1 Deliveries Early; Sell-Side Estimates Around 366,000 Units with Report Expected Next Week

Before formally disclosing its quarterly delivery data, Tesla uncharacteristically released its self-compiled Wall Street consensus expectations to "anchor" the market.

On Thursday local time, Tesla's official website published an announcement titled "First Quarter Delivery Consensus Estimates," aggregating the model calculation results from 23 sell-side institutions to provide the market's current "consensus answer."

According to the announcement, sell-side analysts generally expect Tesla to deliver 365,645 units in the first quarter of 2026, marking a significant sequential decline while still maintaining year-over-year growth. Among these, the combined deliveries for Model 3 and Model Y are estimated at 351,179 units, with other models totaling approximately 13,946 units.

This figure aligns with the sell-side consensus expectations reported by multiple media outlets, all pointing to a level of around 366,000 units.

In terms of pace, these expectations exhibit typical seasonal characteristics:

• Year-over-year: Growth from 336,681 units in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of approximately 8%;
• Sequential: A significant retreat from 418,227 units in the fourth quarter of 2025, a decrease of approximately 24%.

The market generally believes that the first quarter is typically a slow season for automotive sales, and coupled with demand depletion after year-end sales pushes, a sequential decline is standard for the industry.

Notably, what was released are Analyst Consensus expectations self-compiled by Tesla, rather than official company guidance. Tesla emphasized in the announcement that it does not endorse the views or conclusions of analysts.

This approach continues Tesla's communication strategy of recent years: by proactively disclosing "market consensus," it sets a benchmark for performance evaluation in advance. Once the actual delivery data exceeds or falls below this level, the market reaction will be more direct.

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