Goldman Sachs Issues Rare Call: "Generational Buying Opportunity" for US Tech Stocks Has Quietly Begun

US technology stocks have reached their worst relative performance against the broader market in half a century, but Goldman Sachs believes that earnings resilience and a rapid pullback in valuations are opening a "generational buying opportunity" for investors.

A team led by Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs' Chief Global Equity Strategist, stated that US equities "no longer appear expensive" on a relative valuation basis, and following the correction, a repricing window has emerged for the valuation system.

Multiple relative valuation metrics have seen a "reset," as market pricing for the tech sector's pessimism approaches the lows of the 2003-2005 period following the dot-com bubble burst, while earnings revisions for the tech sector continue to lead other industries, widening the divergence between stock performance and fundamentals.

Against the backdrop of investors focusing on Middle East tensions and the intraday tug-of-war between oil prices and US stock futures, tech stocks represent a potential defensive allocation. The report suggests that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, they could trigger a "perceived growth shock" and limit interest rate upside, thereby strengthening the relative attractiveness of the tech sector.

50-Year Weakest Relative Returns, Valuation System Reset

The relative performance of tech stocks against the broader market has fallen to its weakest level in 50 years, with valuations pulling back to more comparable levels.

One key change is the regression of PEG ratios between the US and other markets.

After years of decoupling driven by the "US exceptionalism" narrative, the PEG differential between US stocks and global markets has been reset. The PEG for the tech sector is now lower than that of the global composite market, and the future earnings outlook implied by the tech sector's trailing PEG is "very weak," reaching levels as low as the 2003-2005 trough.

From a horizontal comparison, the P/E ratio of the global IT sector has fallen below those of the consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and industrial sectors, and its valuation premium relative to history has also seen a significant pullback.

Earnings Have Not Weakened, Divergence Between Stock Prices and Fundamentals Widens

Technology stocks have not seen an earnings deterioration that matches the downward revision in valuations.

Despite market concerns about rising capital expenditures and declining future returns, the return on equity (ROE) of related companies remains at a high level, and earnings expectation revisions for the tech sector are "more positive than any other sector."

This has led to a "record gap between earnings growth and market performance" in the tech sector.

However, if credit availability suffers a severe shock, or if the revenues of hyperscale cloud providers are hit, related investment spending could be weakened. Nonetheless, analysts' expectations for the scale of earnings tailwinds brought by these investments have "instead continued to be revised upward" over the past few few weeks.

Rotation Squeezes Tech Premium, Hyperscale Cloud Valuations Approach Broader Market

Recent pricing pressure is partly attributed to two types of concerns: one is market apprehension regarding the capital expenditures of hyperscale cloud providers, and the other is the disruption brought by AI impacting certain tech stocks such as software.

Consequently, capital has repriced long-neglected "old economy" companies, including sectors such as energy, basic resources, chemicals, healthcare, and industrials.

While these sectors "deserve higher valuations," the tech sector has been "overly punished" despite its continued strong growth. Taking hyperscale cloud providers as an example, valuations have approached those of the rest of the S&P 500 components, and the tech sector's premium has been significantly compressed.

No Bubble Concerns, Middle East Disruptions Strengthen "Defensive Attribute" Pricing

There are "no bubble concerns" for tech stocks, as current valuations remain below the levels seen before the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 1970s "Nifty Fifty" crash.

Unlike historical bubble phases, the market has not been "flooded" by tech IPOs, and even if new listings occur in the future, they are more likely to provide a basis for differentiated pricing within the sector.

Geopolitical factors have also been incorporated into the buying logic. The Iran conflict provides a "final reason" to buy tech stocks: the longer the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, the more likely they are to trigger a "perceived growth shock," thereby limiting interest rate upside.

Oppenheimer's team stated that given the tech sector's relative insensitivity of cash flows to economic growth and its potential to benefit from any rebound in Treasury yields, the sector may be more defensive in the coming months.