Down Another 15% This Year! S&P 500 Apparel Index Hovers Near Pandemic Lows; Goldman Sachs Warns: High Oil Prices and US-Iran Conflict to Become Consumer 'Killer'

Latest data on the global athletic apparel supply chain indicates that overall industry sentiment remains subdued. The convergence of geopolitical tensions, rising raw material costs, and uncertainty in consumer demand continues to weigh heavily on sector valuations.

The S&P 500 Textile, Apparel, and Luxury Goods sub-industry index has declined by 15% year-to-date, representing a cumulative drop of approximately 65% from its end-of-2021 peak, and is currently hovering near lows seen during the pandemic. In their latest report, a team led by Goldman Sachs analyst Michelle Cheng noted that major Asian athletic apparel OEM manufacturers showed mixed order performance in March. Forward order visibility at the brand level has decreased, while Nike's recovery has lagged behind expectations, constituting a significant drag on the industry.

On the demand side, US consumption data for March remained resilient, but performance in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa was more uneven. Cheng stated that following the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, market sentiment deteriorated significantly. Future trends will depend on data feedback after the recent two-week ceasefire agreement takes effect. Former President Trump recently hinted that high oil prices may persist into the second half of the year, further intensifying market concerns about continued pressure on household consumption budgets.

Supply Chain Data Mixed as Order Visibility Declines

According to Goldman Sachs' latest report, order performance among major Asian athletic apparel contract manufacturers in March showed clear divergence. Among Taiwan-based footwear and apparel OEM firms, Ruhong outperformed peers; Polytek and Pou Chen, which primarily produce fast-fashion garments and sneakers respectively, saw Q1 earnings largely meet expectations but faced pressure due to Indonesian holiday factors. Additionally, Fengtai, which manufactures sneakers primarily for Nike, saw orders continue to decline year-over-year, while Hua Li also reported dismal order performance in the first quarter.

Analyst Cheng pointed out that although most manufacturers indicated that March orders had not yet been significantly impacted, some companies reported a decline in forward order visibility from brand clients, primarily due to rising costs and an unclear demand outlook. She warned that if raw material prices remain elevated, contract manufacturers will face greater margin pressure in the second half of the year; furthermore, the competitive landscape among brands may further limit suppliers' ability to pass on costs, especially when brands attempt to shift cost pressures back onto manufacturers.

Nike Drags Industry Performance; Fast Retailing Offers Positive Reference

At the brand level, Nike's slower-than-expected recovery has become one of the primary negative signals for the current industry. Cheng noted that Nike's sluggish adjustment continues to drag on the entire supply chain.

As a major retailer in China for Nike, Adidas, PUMA, and Converse, Baosheng International reported a 6% year-over-year decline in March sales, reflecting a typical post-holiday consumption downturn; Q1 revenue fell 1% year-over-year, broadly in line with market expectations.

In contrast, Fast Retailing provided one of the few positive signals. Cheng noted in the report that the brand landscape is showing a divergence of "Nike negative, Fast Retailing positive," with the latter providing some hedge against the otherwise weak overall industry sentiment.

Demand Divergence Continues; Bottom Likely Await Confidence Reversal

Uncertainty on the demand side is intensifying. Cheng stated that based on statements from management teams at Levi Strauss, PVH, and Nike, as well as high-frequency data, US consumer demand in March remained resilient, partly because the impact of energy price shocks has not yet fully transmitted to household consumption budgets.

By comparison, demand performance in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa was more uneven. Following the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, consumer sentiment in developed markets weakened noticeably. Cheng said her team will closely track the latest data following the implementation of the recent ceasefire agreement to assess the actual impact of the geopolitical situation on consumer demand. Whether the index can truly hit bottom largely depends on whether consumer confidence can undergo a substantive reversal, as the current macroeconomic environment has not yet provided clear turning signals.