Markets Watch Iran-US Situation; European Stocks Open Mostly Lower, Netflix Pre-Market Down 10%, Dollar Oscillates at Lows, Brent Crude Falls 0.4%

The strong rebound in global stocks over the past three weeks has paused. With uncertainty still lingering over whether a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States will hold, investors proactively reduced positions ahead of the weekend as the S&P 500 stood at a historic milestone after posting consecutive weekly gains exceeding 3%.

On Friday, S&P 500 Index Futures were flat, following two consecutive days where the index hit new record highs. As both the US and Iran continued to signal de-escalation, immense pressure on energy markets eased. Coupled with optimism in the artificial intelligence sector and robust corporate earnings, this rally has been particularly strong.

According to CCTV News, Trump publicly stated on the 16th that the US has obtained a "highly significant" declaration ensuring Iran does not possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years, adding that "Iran has agreed to almost all demands" and that prospects for an agreement "look very optimistic." Brent crude subsequently fell 0.4% to around $99 per barrel. The dollar remained near February lows, and the 10-Year US Treasury yield held steady at 4.31%.

Daniel Murray, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at EFG Asset Management, stated: "As the situation in the Middle East appears to be settling, market attention will return to fundamentals, especially the earnings season just beginning. Profit expectations remain relatively optimistic, aligning with solid macroeconomic trends."

• S&P 500 Index Futures are flat, while Nasdaq 100 Futures showed little change. Netflix shares fell nearly 10% in pre-market trading as Q1 earnings beat expectations but guidance disappointed; the company's chairman is set to step down.
• European stocks opened mostly lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.19%, the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.04%, the French CAC 40 rose 0.06%, and the German DAX fell 0.06%.
• The dollar remained near February lows, while the Japanese yen fell 0.1% to the 159.37 level.
• The 10-Year US Treasury yield held steady at 4.31%.
• Brent crude fell 0.4% to around $99 per barrel.
• Gold prices were flat at $4,781 per ounce.
• Spot silver rose over 1% intraday to $79.20 per ounce.
• Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $74,969.26.

Market Slows Down After Record Rebound

The strength of this global stock market rebound is rare in recent years. The S&P 500 is approaching the milestone of three consecutive weeks of gains exceeding 3%, a trend triggered by rapid recovery following clear signs of de-escalation in US-Iran tensions.

However, entering Friday, multiple markets entered a wait-and-see mode. European stocks traded sideways, while Asian indices ended their three-day winning streak. Investors chose to close out positions before the weekend, awaiting further clarity on the trajectory of US-Iran relations.

French engineering manufacturer Alstom SA became a drag on European markets after announcing it was withdrawing its financial guidance for the current fiscal year, sending its stock price down by its largest single-day drop in over two years.

Trump Claims Iran Concessions; Oil Hovers Near $100 Mark

Oil price movements remain one of the core indicators for the current market. Brent crude softened following Trump's remarks on Iran negotiations, currently trading around $99 per barrel, yet still hovering near the $100 mark.

Garfield Reynolds, head of Bloomberg MLIV Asia, issued a warning regarding this development. He noted that while US-Iran conflict has clearly cooled, there are extremely limited signs of resumed cargo flow through the Strait of Hormuz. "This means there remains significant potential for crude oil futures to reclaim levels above $100 and for equities to pull back from this week's highs."

Gold prices were flat at $4,781 per ounce.

Earnings Season Begins; Fundamentals Return to Center Stage

With geopolitical risk premiums gradually fading, market focus is shifting toward corporate fundamentals. The current earnings season has just kicked off, and the direction of profit data will become a key variable driving the market over the coming weeks.

Daniel Murray stated that current profit expectations remain elevated, consistent with the underlying trend of overall macroeconomic stability. Additionally, sustained optimism surrounding artificial intelligence continues to support the technology sector, serving as one of the key drivers behind this rally.

For investors, the core question at this stage is: if the Middle East risk premium continues to fade, can earnings data take the baton and provide support for equity valuations that are already at historical highs?