Earnings Preview | The Shadow of "AI Disruption" Lingers! After a Halving of Stock Price, Salesforce Faces a Major Earnings Test

According to Zhitong Finance APP, American customer relationship management software (CRM) giant Salesforce (CRM.US) will announce its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2027 after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday. Currently, the market expects Salesforce's Q1 revenue to reach $11.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $3.11, up from $2.58 in the same period last year.

Recently, Wall Street has been engulfed in anxiety over the "SaaS industry AI disruption crisis (SaaSpocalypse)," as the iteration of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has put continuous pressure on the valuations of the entire industry due to its impact on traditional cloud software business models. Salesforce's financial report is highly anticipated as it is one of the top SaaS companies and a component of the Dow Jones Index.

Salesforce's stock price has shown weakness, having plummeted 51% from its peak in 2025, and has fallen 32% so far this year. Options market data indicates that this financial report may trigger a 9% fluctuation in Salesforce's stock price, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, making this report a critical watershed for assessing Salesforce's AI transformation and resolving market discrepancies.

Past performance resilience highlighted, Agentforce as the growth engine

Salesforce's Q4 results for fiscal year 2026 exceeded expectations and provided an optimistic performance outlook. Data shows that for the fourth quarter ending January 31, Salesforce's revenue was $11.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%; adjusted earnings per share were $3.81, far exceeding the market expectation of $3.04. Additionally, the company's remaining performance obligations (RPO) climbed to a historic high of $72.4 billion, indicating that despite a slowing macroeconomic environment, enterprise demand remains strong.

The AI agent platform Agentforce has become a core pillar of Salesforce's overall AI strategy and the main driver of the company's business growth.

In Q4 of fiscal year 2026, Agentforce's annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $800 million, a staggering year-on-year increase of 169%, and the annual revenue growth of the AI product portfolio after the addition of Data 360 exceeded 200%. Company management emphasized that over 60% of new orders in the fourth quarter came from existing customers, indicating a continuous increase in customer stickiness and willingness to pay. In the upcoming Q1 financial report, investors will closely monitor the pace of order signing, average contract value, and project deployment progress to verify whether Agentforce's performance can sustain high growth.

Notably, Salesforce recently reached a $72 million corporate partnership agreement with the U.S. Air Force, marking the successful entry of the company's AI workflow solutions and Agentforce agent products into government and regulatory departments, opening up a new incremental market space.

Looking ahead to the new fiscal year 2027, Salesforce has provided a relatively optimistic performance outlook among large software companies. The company expects total revenue for fiscal year 2027 to reach between $45.8 billion and $46.2 billion, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 34.3%, while reiterating that organic growth will significantly accelerate in the second half of the year. From a long-term perspective, the company aims for a revenue target of $63 billion for fiscal year 2030, providing solid support for the long-term growth logic driven by AI Institutional Opinions Diverge, Long-Short Battle Intensifies

On the eve of earnings reports, opinions among Wall Street institutions have polarized, and the long-short battle has become increasingly fierce.

The bearish camp is represented by Bank of America, which recently resumed coverage of Salesforce with a "Underperform" rating and a target price of $160. Analysts warn that Salesforce is facing a "structural transformation triggered by AI," and may encounter issues such as slowing customer growth and limited upsell opportunities for existing customers, with the company's AI commercialization prospects appearing "bleak." Meanwhile, recently disclosed regulatory documents show that institutions like Bridgewater and activist investor Starboard Value have chosen to exit their positions.

In contrast, Deutsche Bank has given Salesforce a "Buy" rating with a target price of $255, believing that the market is overemphasizing the risks of AI disruption while underestimating the adaptability of leading companies to transformation. Additionally, DNB Asset Management has increased its position in Salesforce by 25%; well-known investor Michael Burry has also disclosed a position in Salesforce, stating that the recent stock price decline is influenced by market sentiment rather than fundamental factors.

Overall, Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Salesforce. Data from Visible Alpha shows that among the 20 analysts covering Salesforce, 14 have given it a "Buy" rating, 5 have given it a "Hold" rating, and only 1 has given it a "Sell" rating, with an average target price of $262, nearly 50% higher than the current stock price level