U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Futures for the three major indices rise together, chip and space stocks continue to rise in pre-market, Trump says the U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement within two to three days

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of June 9 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.19%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.42%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.81%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.34%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.23%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.78%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.85%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 1.91%, priced at $89.56 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 1.49%, priced at $92.85 per barrel.

Market News

Trump: The U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement "within two to three days." On June 9, U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have entered the "final stage" and an agreement will be reached "within two to three days." In an interview at New York's Kennedy International Airport, Trump said that Israel and Iran had previously "been at odds," but now "agree to a ceasefire," adding, "We are at the final stage and will reach a very, very great agreement." When asked how much longer the negotiations would take, Trump replied, "Two to three days."

J.P. Morgan downgrades U.S. stock rating to "tactical cautious": short-term volatility is inevitable, recommends gradual positioning on dips. After a massive sell-off in the market last Friday, J.P. Morgan's trading department has turned cautious on the short-term outlook for U.S. stocks. Andrew Taylor, the bank's global market intelligence head, downgraded the stock outlook from "bullish" to "tactical cautious," expecting the market to remain volatile in the short term, primarily because investors may continue to reduce holdings in technology stocks that have risen too much during the recent rebound. In a client report, Taylor noted, "The stock market may take weeks to stabilize." He believes that strong economic and corporate earnings fundamentals will continue to support the bull market, stating, "We do believe it is possible to buy on dips." However, he also warned that due to factors such as bond market volatility, position liquidation pressure, potential pullbacks in AI trading, and increased stock supply, the market faces the risk of an "imminent correction," making it "reasonable to build positions gradually this week and next." He further pointed out that if the upcoming inflation data pushes bond yields higher or negative earnings reports trigger another sell-off in technology stocks, he would shift to a bearish stance. Conversely, if there are signs of a ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran conflict that alleviates inflation concerns, the market may see a bullish turnaround After the non-farm payrolls rewrite everything, Castle Securities strikes again: The Federal Reserve is most likely to raise interest rates next, and it may come soon. After last week's unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls completely shattered the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, Castle Securities recently issued a warning in its latest client report — the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates in the near future to curb the rising inflationary pressures, posing significant risks for investors facing tightening financial conditions. The head of EMEA fixed income sales at the firm, Shah, pointed out in the report that the combination of a large-scale investment cycle in AI, tightening energy markets, and a persistently strong labor market is increasing the upside risks for economic growth and inflation. "The next action from the Federal Reserve is most likely to be an interest rate hike... and it may come soon." He noted that both AI and high inflation have currently sparked public discontent. For the capital markets, regulatory or control policies addressing these two major issues are likely to suppress the speculative heat in the AI sector while further tightening the overall financial environment, putting pressure on risk assets across the board.

The U.S. Treasury market continuously sends signals to Waller: The Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates! The U.S. Treasury market has sent a clear signal — the current interest rate levels are still insufficient to curb potential economic overheating. As traders' expectations rise that the Federal Reserve may raise rates by at least 25 basis points as early as October this year, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note has surged to a more than one-year high of about 4.15%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's policy range of 3.5%–3.75%. The two-year Treasury yield has been consistently above the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's policy rate since March of this year, with a premium of about 40 to 50 basis points. This is the market signaling through actual actions: the policy is no longer restrictive and may even be too accommodative. The divergence between U.S. short-term Treasury yields and policy rates once again reminds the market that Federal Reserve policies often lag behind market trends.

The prediction market is bearish on the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz this year; why is the oil market still so calm? Traders in the prediction market generally believe that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal until 2026. The latest data from Kalshi shows that the probability of the strait returning to normal navigation before January next year is only 34%, meaning there is a 66% chance of continued obstruction. The market defines "normal navigation" as the number of vessels navigating the strait exceeding 60 on a seven-day moving average. However, crude oil prices have not surged to the dangerous highs that the market fears. Experts point out that a large amount of crude oil is bypassing the strait's blockade through secret channels, alleviating supply shocks. Tankers are shutting off their transponders to evade tracking, creating "ghost shipments." According to estimates from JPMorgan, in the last two weeks of May, the secret transport volume was about 2.1 million barrels per day. Additionally, the significant reduction in crude oil imports by key global energy-consuming countries and a shift towards large-scale stockpiling are also key factors keeping oil prices relatively stable. However, some seasoned oil industry insiders warn that the market is being lulled into complacency by short-term hedging measures, seriously underestimating the actual impact.

Individual Stock News

U.S. chip stocks and commercial aerospace stocks continue to rise in pre-market trading. As of the time of writing on Tuesday, in the chip sector, Micron Technology (MU.US) is up nearly 5%, Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) is up over 4%, Intel (INTC.US) and AMD (AMD.US) are both up over 2%, and Broadcom (AVGO.US) is up over 1% In the commercial aerospace sector, Momentus (MNTS.US) rose nearly 9%, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) increased over 6%, Intuitive Machines (LUNR.US) and Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) both gained over 5%, Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US) climbed over 4%, Redwire (RDW.US) and MDA Space (MDA.US) both rose over 3%, Voyager Technologies (VOYG.US) increased over 2%, and York Space Systems (YSS.US) rose over 1%.

Cook's final WWDC submission! Apple (AAPL.US) launches its largest AI upgrade plan to date, why is the capital market not buying it? From the content released, Apple introduced a fully upgraded Siri AI, a new generation of Apple Intelligence model, the new macOS 27 "Golden Gate," an upgraded Spotlight search, and a series of AI-driven new features. Unlike the market's expectation of a "super AI product," Apple did not launch an independent chatbot similar to ChatGPT, but chose to fully integrate AI capabilities into its operating system and ecosystem. The capital market's reaction, however, has been relatively cautious. During the conference, Apple's stock price shifted from rising to falling, reflecting investors' wait-and-see attitude towards the long-term effects of Apple's AI strategy. Over the past two years, OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Microsoft have continuously refreshed the market's perception of AI capabilities, and investors have become accustomed to seeing more powerful models, advanced reasoning abilities, and more aggressive AI product roadmaps. In contrast, Apple's focus in this release remains on Siri upgrades, system integration, and ecosystem collaboration. Whether it is cross-application calls, natural language interaction, image generation, or intelligent search, these capabilities have already been validated in products like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude. Therefore, in the eyes of some investors, this WWDC is not a technological breakthrough that redefines industry direction. Although Apple has clarified its strategic direction, whether it can truly transform AI into a new growth engine still needs to be validated by product implementation and user feedback in the coming quarters.

One of the largest private credit deals in history is finalized: Apollo (APO.US) and Blackstone (BX.US) finalize $35 billion financing for Anthropic. According to reports, Apollo Global Management and Blackstone Group have finalized a private credit financing plan worth $35 billion, which will be used to support the expansion of AI startup Anthropic. This will be one of the largest private credit deals in history, and the financing will be used to purchase AI chips developed by Google (GOOGL.US), a subsidiary of Alphabet. A special purpose vehicle (SPV) established by Apollo's Atlas SP Partners simultaneously raised debt and equity capital, and the deal is supported by a long-term lease agreement linked to the AI chips Reports cite informed sources stating that the cash flow generated from these lease payments supports the value of this financing.

40% Premium! GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US) plans to acquire Nuvalent (NUVL.US) for $10.6 billion, strengthening its position in the cancer drug sector. GlaxoSmithKline announced on Tuesday that it will acquire Nuvalent for $124 per share in cash, representing a 40% premium over Nuvalent's closing price on Monday. This acquisition marks a significant expansion of GlaxoSmithKline's cancer business. Since the British pharmaceutical company re-entered the cancer field in 2019, its cancer product portfolio has been steadily growing. This transaction is also the first major acquisition since CEO Luke Mills took office. Nuvalent is dedicated to developing small molecule precision targeted therapies for various tumors, including lung cancer. Both drugs obtained through the acquisition are already in late-stage clinical trials, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is expected to decide whether to approve them for market later this year. GlaxoSmithKline stated that if approved, both drugs could become blockbuster medications. As of the time of writing, Nuvalent's stock rose nearly 39% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Palantir (PLTR.US) faces a heavy review in the UK! Criticized as an "unacceptable risk point," its $440 million contract with the NHS may be terminated. The UK is conducting a comprehensive review of the contract signed between Palantir and the National Health Service (NHS). Under increasing political pressure, the UK government is being urged to activate termination clauses when the initial contract period ends in early 2027. This contract was awarded to Palantir in 2023 to build a platform connecting NHS medical data. The contract will last until early 2027, at which point the UK government must decide whether to renew it. Last week, the UK Parliament urged the government to initiate relevant clauses and terminate the contract. The House of Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee released a report on June 2, describing Palantir as an "unacceptable risk point" in the public sector.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

At 00:00 Beijing time the next day, the EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

Earnings Forecast

Wednesday pre-market: Yuanbao (YB.US)