SG Morning Brief | NFP Misses at 57K, Dow Hits Record but Chips Crash for 2nd Day; US Closed Today
US OvernightThe Dow surged 594.83 points (+1.14%) to a record 52,900.07 after June nonfarm payrolls came in at just 57,000 — roughly half the 113,000 consensus and the weakest print in four months. April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000. Unemployment dipped to 4.2% from 4.3%. Leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 jobs, the largest decline since 2020.
US Overnight
The Dow surged 594.83 points (+1.14%) to a record 52,900.07 after June nonfarm payrolls came in at just 57,000 — roughly half the 113,000 consensus and the weakest print in four months. April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000. Unemployment dipped to 4.2% from 4.3%. Leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 jobs, the largest decline since 2020. The weak data eased rate hike fears: September hike probability fell significantly, and Schwab's Collin Martin said the report "should allow the Fed to take a patient approach." The S&P 500 was flat at 7,483.24 while the Nasdaq fell 0.80% to 25,832.67, as the semiconductor selloff overwhelmed the dovish macro impulse for tech stocks. Gold surged to $4,130 on rate relief. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM and 3.5% YoY, roughly in line.
Key Movers
SanDisk (SNDK) -14% — SanDisk plunged over 14%, extending a two-day decline of more than 20%. The stock has now fallen roughly 27% from its recent high. Despite the carnage, SanDisk remains up over 700% year-to-date — the magnitude of the rally means even a 27% pullback barely dents the year's gains. Citrini Research warned that memory prices have risen so sharply that hyperscalers may reduce their needs.
Semi equipment: Teradyne (TER) -14% / KLA (KLAC) -12% — Semiconductor equipment stocks fell harder than the chip names themselves, signaling that doubts about AI investment returns are spreading from memory into the capex layer. Teradyne lost 13.6% and KLA dropped 11.5%. When equipment names lead a selloff, it suggests investors are questioning the sustainability of the entire infrastructure buildout — not just the pricing of one product.
Marvell (MRVL) -10% — Marvell fell 9.84%, continuing to unwind the premium from Jensen Huang's "future trillion-dollar company" endorsement at Computex three weeks ago. ARM dropped 6.58%, AMD fell 4.26%, Broadcom slid 2.41%, and Nvidia, relatively resilient, still lost 1.39%. TSMC's ADR fell 2.27%. The chip index's two-day cumulative decline of 11% is the sharpest since the KOSPI crash.
SGX Preview
The STI was near 5,070. DBS near S$62.18, UOB near S$37.91. The weak US jobs report is mixed for Singapore: it eases rate hike pressure (negative for bank NIM expectations) but signals the US economy may be cooling (negative for export demand). The ongoing chip selloff weighs on Venture Corp. US markets are closed today and Monday July 7 is the next US session, when SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100.
Asia Pre-Market
Gold at $4,130 is the clearest expression of the market's new stance: rate hikes are less likely, safe havens are bid. The Dow at a record while the Nasdaq falls 0.8% continues the Great Rotation pattern that has defined June. Chip stocks are entering oversold territory after an 11% two-day decline, which could attract dip-buyers when trading resumes Monday.
Today and Next Week
US markets are closed today (July 3, Independence Day observed) and Saturday July 4.
| Event | Date | Time (UTC+8) |
|---|---|---|
| SpaceX joins Nasdaq-100 | Mon Jul 7 | — |
| ISM Services PMI | Mon Jul 7 | 10:00 PM |
Earnings season begins in earnest the week of July 13 (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup).
Data Spotlight: The Labor Market Paradox — May payrolls doubled consensus at 172,000 and the Nasdaq crashed 4%. Now June payrolls halved consensus at 57,000 and the Nasdaq fell again. The chip selloff is running on its own logic — AI investment doubts, not macro data — while the rest of the market trades the macro. That divergence will resolve when Q2 earnings arrive in two weeks. Until then, the chip sector is in no-man's land between a 88% quarterly gain and growing skepticism about AI capex returns.
One More Thing
The semi equipment stocks crashing harder than the chip stocks is the signal to watch. When Teradyne falls 14% and KLA drops 12% — more than Nvidia, more than AMD, more than Broadcom — the market is questioning not just memory pricing but the entire AI infrastructure buildout. Equipment makers sell the tools that build the fabs. If their stocks are being sold, it means investors doubt that the next round of fabs will be built at the pace the market has priced in. That is a deeper skepticism than a memory price correction. Q2 earnings from TSMC (July 17), ASML (July 22), and Intel (July 31) will be the definitive test. Until then, the 88% quarterly rally meets the 11% two-day correction, and the truth lies somewhere in between.
This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
