KeyBanc's Asia research reshapes chip stock ratings: The smartphone winter drags down the RF leader Skyworks Solutions, while Intel and NVIDIA continue to soar

The Zhitong Finance APP noted that after the recent Asian research concluded, investment bank KeyBanc adjusted the ratings of several chip stocks. The bank downgraded the stock rating of Skyworks Solutions (SWKS.US) from "Overweight" to "Market Perform," while raising the target prices of several chip stocks, including NVIDIA (NVDA.US) and Intel (INTC.US).

The analyst team led by John Vinh stated: "After concluding our recent trip to Asia, we have revised the performance forecasts and target prices for several companies. The most concerning topic is that the sustained strong demand from data centers is having a broad cross-impact on the entire semiconductor industry, supporting the ongoing shortage of memory chips, further price increases, and tightening supply conditions, which has also prompted the advance of inventory periods for personal computers (PCs) and flagship smartphones. We see that the performance of analog chips is better than expected, driven by demand from data centers and industrial sectors, extending delivery cycles, leading to widespread price increases and improvements in order volumes, thus maintaining the upward momentum in the early stages of this cycle."

The analysts added that from an individual stock conclusion perspective, their research results are most favorable for Intel, Marvell Technology (MRVL.US), and Micron Technology (MU.US); they hold a positive attitude towards AMD (AMD.US), as well as analog chip manufacturers such as Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR.US), Analog Devices (ADI.US), Microchip Technology (MCHP.US), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US), ON Semiconductor (ON.US), and Texas Instruments (TXN.US); while they hold a pessimistic view on Skyworks Solutions, Qorvo (QRVO.US), and Cirrus Logic (CRUS.US).

Intel

KeyBanc raised Intel's target price from $110 to $155 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating.

Vinh and his team stated: "Positive factors include: 1) Given the strong AI trend, the demand for server CPUs remains exceptionally large, and Intel has successfully expanded the capacity of its Intel 3 process to support a 25% to 30% increase in server shipments this year, as well as over 50% growth next year. 2) The yield of the 18A process continues to improve significantly, rising from 65% last quarter to over 85%. 3) Due to yield improvements and successful customer design wins, we see signs that Intel plans to significantly expand 18A capacity. We believe that, in addition to Apple, Intel has also successfully secured design collaborations with AMD, NVIDIA, Marvell Technology, Microsoft, Micron, and OpenAI."

Additionally, the analysts noted that besides Google's TPU Humu Fish, Intel has secured its second major design collaboration with Amazon AWS's Trainium 3 chip, leveraging EMIB-T packaging technology. Raising client CPU prices by another 6% to 15% in the third quarter of 2026 is also a positive factor

NVIDIA

The institution raised the target price for NVIDIA stock from $310 to $330, maintaining an "Overweight" rating.

Analysts stated that their research results are mixed for NVIDIA but overall lean positive. The mass production process of the Vera Rubin architecture seems to be slightly delayed due to issues with the thermal lid and delays in SK Hynix's validation of HBM4, making Rubin's mass production momentum appear somewhat moderate. However, analysts pointed out that the risks to performance forecasts are minimal, as they expect NVIDIA to ship more B300 GPUs to replace the R200. Analysts added that positive factors include: NVIDIA's wafer supply for chip wafer-level packaging (CoWoS) being raised to 1.1 million wafers in 2027 (an increase of 69%), reflecting strong demand, and most shipments are expected to be Rubin, with Rubin Ultra expected to contribute partially later in 2027.

Arm

KeyBanc raised Arm's target price from $300 to $430, maintaining an "Overweight" rating.

Analysts stated: "Although the short-term demand trend for Arm is mixed, and we expect the smartphone market to continue to shrink due to the shortage of memory chips, the surge in demand for AI agents offsets this impact, driving strong demand for Arm architecture server CPUs from NVIDIA (Vera), Amazon AWS (Graviton), and Google (Axion)."

Wen and his team noted that while they believe there may be risks to performance forecasts in the short term, they ultimately believe that as Arm begins to build server CPU chips for customers, the long-term opportunities surrounding server CPUs will be a more significant and meaningful opportunity for Arm. Analysts believe that as Arm begins to manufacture chips, its goal of achieving $25 billion in revenue and over $9 in earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2031 is achievable.

Skyworks Solutions

The institution downgraded Skyworks Solutions' stock rating from "Overweight" to "Market Perform" and lowered its performance forecasts for Skyworks Solutions and Qorvo.

In October 2025, Skyworks Solutions, which supplies RF chips to Apple and other smartphone manufacturers, announced plans to acquire Qorvo through a combination of cash and stock, valuing the merged entity at approximately $22 billion.

Analysts stated that they downgraded Skyworks Solutions' rating based on three reasons:

First, analysts indicated that the original assumptions when they previously upgraded the stock to "Overweight" are no longer valid. Analysts stated: "When we initially upgraded Skyworks Solutions to 'Outperform' in October 2025, it was based on its pending acquisition of Qorvo, which we expected would generate significant cost and revenue synergies, with cost synergies estimated to exceed $500 million. However, that was predicated on a stable smartphone market environment and assumed that the merged company would be in a better position to compete for Apple's socket share "Although we still believe this, the gains brought by new content are likely to be offset by the shrinking overall addressable market (TAM)."

Secondly, Wen and his team pointed out that the smartphone market continues to deteriorate, with all market segments and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), including Apple, Samsung, and Chinese manufacturers, cutting orders.

Finally, the analysts stated that although the stock may have an attractive risk-reward ratio, they believe it will be difficult for the stock price to perform well in a shrinking market, as 60% of the company's revenue post-merger comes from smartphones.

Other Target Price Changes

KeyBanc also raised the target prices for the following stocks while maintaining an "Overweight" rating: Micron Technology's target price was raised from $160 to $175; Marvell Technology from $38.50 to $40; AMD from $53 to $72.50.

Meanwhile, the firm lowered the target price for Silvaco Technology from $20 to $19, but retained an "Overweight" rating on the stock