Windfall Ahead, AMAT Gets Cold Feet?

Applied Materials (AMAT) released its FY26 Q3 results (to Jul 2026) after the U.S. close on Aug 14 Beijing time. Key takeaways:

1) Core metrics: Revenue came in at $9.12bn (+25% YoY), slightly above the Street at $9.02bn. Growth was driven by AI compute infrastructure buildouts, which boosted demand for advanced logic, DRAM and advanced packaging tools.

GPM was 50.3%, up 40bps QoQ, in line with expectations (50.1%). With downstream capex expanding, margins trended higher. The modest uplift reflected added cost investment in semi equipment and services.

2) Segment details: $Applied Materials.US operates across semi equipment and services, with equipment contributing over 70% of revenue.

Within semi equipment: (i) Logic revenue was $4.72bn, up 18% QoQ, led by advanced node demand. (ii) DRAM revenue was $1.83bn, up 6% QoQ, dampened by a mismatch between customer ramp schedules and delivery cycles due to cleanroom constraints.

3) OpEx: Operating expenses rose to about $1.51bn, up 14% YoY. R&D was up to $1.10bn, while G&A and S&M were stable.

The company announced a 4% headcount reduction in late Oct 2025. As results improved, it aggressively rehired semi engineers and service staff, with headcount up another 7% QoQ this quarter.

4) Guidance: AMAT guides FY26 Q4 revenue of $9.75–10.75bn, ahead of the Street ($9.6bn), implying a midpoint QoQ increase of 12.5%. The company expects Non-GAAP EPS of $3.82–4.22, also above the Street ($3.71).

Dolphin Research view: Solid print, conservative tone

AMAT delivered on revenue and margins, with growth fueled by AI infrastructure, lifting demand for advanced logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging equipment.

Next-quarter guidance topped expectations. However, shares sold off sharply after-hours, mainly on management commentary: prior guidance for 'semi equipment growth of 30%+ in CY2026' was not explicitly raised this time.

Management noted demand stayed strong this quarter, with growth set to exceed last quarter's '30%+'. They also highlighted expected share gains within the year, yet stopped short of quantifying, even to '40%', suggesting limited confidence in near-term order certainty.

Given core OEM capex plans (up 40%+ for the year), AMAT's guidance looks soft. Several majors have recently raised full-year capex again, and the market was looking for a sizable lift from the company.

Also, AMAT's fiscal year is offset from the calendar year by two months. Even assuming 40% growth for CY2026, this implies a sharp deceleration in sequential growth for semi equipment (this quarter 18% -> next quarter 12% -> the quarter after 6%). Notably, Q1 FY27 (to Jan 2027) is a 14-week quarter, so that '+6%' translates to roughly flat on a 13-week basis, which is unlikely to please the market.

Beyond the quarter, investors focused on several areas:

a) Foundry/logic capex: With AI demand, multiple key foundries raised capex outlooks again, a primary driver for semi equipment and shares.

Specifically: (i) TSMC lifted its 2026 capex guide to $60–64bn, with an annual increase of about $20bn. (ii) Micron raised 2026 capex again to $27bn; (iii) Samsung and SK Hynix also flagged higher capex.

Aggregating these, global core foundry capex growth in 2026 points to roughly 40%, with most of the delta from TSMC's advanced nodes and memory makers' expansions. Yet AMAT did not explicitly raise its '30%+ full-year' semi equipment growth view post-print, which disappointed the market.

b) Memory demand and order visibility:

Capex plans suggest stronger appetite from memory makers. Given DRAM and HBM rely more on deposition, CMP and advanced packaging, AMAT should benefit from this memory-led capex upcycle.

AMAT's revenue mix skews to logic, with memory at only 20–30%, so the lift is less pronounced than for Lam Research (with memory near half of revenue). Notably, AMAT has the broadest coverage across DRAM/HBM steps (deposition/CMP/metrology/packaging), supporting steadier execution.

Management reiterated on the call 'largest customer provides an 8-quarter rolling forecast', with an incremental datapoint that 'some customer discussions extend to 2030'. The latter remains at the discussion stage, while the 8-quarter window carries higher certainty.

AMAT's current market cap is $424.4bn, implying about 31x PE on FY27 post-tax core operating profit (assuming a 30% 2-year revenue CAGR, 51% GPM, 13% tax rate). Historically, the company's PE range has mostly been 18–30x, placing the current multiple above the midpoint.

AMAT, ASML and Lam Research sit in the upstream equipment layer, and tend to trade as a basket driven by semi cycles and foundry capex. AMAT's current multiple is broadly in line with ASML (31x) and Lam Research (35x).

For semi equipment, the focus is on the certainty of capacity additions and high growth over the next 2–3 years. As long as AI capex and the semi cycle remain strong, further capex raises should support upstream equipment earnings and multiples.

Demand had been concentrated in advanced nodes and memory. SMIC's margin print yesterday suggests mature nodes are also entering an up-cycle, with broad-based price hikes in 8-inch lines. From AI-driven tightness, supply-demand pressures are spilling into more semi segments, and increased investment in traditional nodes could further lift equipment demand.

Overall, with rising AI capex and a thaw in traditional semis, the broader semi uptrend remains intact. Majors are likely to keep lifting capex, underpinning faster growth for the company and the equipment industry.

The lack of an explicit raise to the full-year semi equipment outlook (still '30%+') may dent sentiment near term. If the semi up-cycle holds, any pullback should be limited, and downstream expansion and spend increases should continue to support earnings and valuation upside.

Below are Dolphin Research's detailed datapoints on AMAT: