AI 资本开支疑虑缓解，美光、闪迪等存储股迎来重估，带动芯片指数重返牛市

The memory chip sector is experiencing a strong rebound. AI frontier model companies Anthropic and OpenAI have successively disclosed impressive financial data, boosting market confidence in the sustainability of AI hardware demand.

On Monday, Micron Tech’s stock price rose 4.1%, accumulating a 17.5% gain over five consecutive trading sessions, marking its longest winning streak since January this year. SanDisk’s stock surged 8.9% in a single day, while Western Digital and Seagate Technology rose 5.4% and 2.2%, respectively.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed up 1.6% at 12,621 points, rebounding more than 20% from its July 29 low and re-entering a technical bull market. Its previous bear market lasted only 21 days, the shortest duration since March 2020.

Earlier media reports indicated that Anthropic's Q2 revenue soared to over $11.5 billion, an increase of nearly 14 times year-over-year. OpenAI's annualized revenue has also reached $40 billion, validating the continued expansion of AI demand.

AI Large Model Revenue Accelerates, Enhancing Visibility of Chip Demand

One of the core drivers of this rally is the consistently impressive financial data from AI frontier model companies. Anthropic's preliminary Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, compared to just $787 million in the same period last year.

Jordan Klein, an analyst in the trading division at Mizuho, pointed out in a client report that Anthropic and OpenAI's "positive financial updates" are the most important near-term catalysts for chip stocks currently, as both companies are accelerating their push toward IPOs.

CNBC reported on Friday that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told investors that the company's enterprise business revenue share has surpassed its consumer side, with an annualized revenue run rate reaching $40 billion.

Klein stated that the market consensus for Anthropic's full-year recurring revenue this year is between $75 billion and $100 billion, with reports suggesting this figure could climb to the $180 billion to $200 billion range by the end of next year. This will translate into "substantial" procurement demand for AI chips, memory components, networking equipment, and other data center hardware.

Although Anthropic currently faces challenges such as limited chip supply and a slower pace of enterprise technology adoption, Klein emphasized that the rapid acceleration in revenue growth is the core signal investors are watching.

"You need to see positive growth rates and financial data that demonstrate substantial acceleration and sustained momentum to maintain bullish sentiment in the semiconductor sector and attract investors who exited after the July sell-off back into the market."

SanDisk Investor Day Reshapes Valuation Framework

Beyond the aforementioned macro catalysts, industry signals released during SanDisk's investor day last week have also become an important basis for this revaluation.

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya stated in a client report that SanDisk's investor day event "indicates that the industry may be entering a relatively more durable phase," distinct from the clearly cyclical alternation of boom and bust seen in the past.

Arya pointed out that SanDisk's target of 15% annual sales growth, along with its outlook for gross margins to remain above 80% for the rest of the decade supported by new customer agreements and supply strategies, provides a "valuation reference framework for how investors ultimately view memory stocks."

However, Friedman remains cautious about chasing the rally. He reminded investors that individual stocks in this sector fell by 30% to 40% in July, noting that "stocks with such drastic volatility in both directions tend to continue this pattern. No matter how much news support today's rebound has, it cannot change their inherent high-volatility nature."