美银：料美联储如期加息 25 个基点

USHK News
2022.03.16 02:03
我行预计美联储将在本次会议以加息 25 个基点启动加息周期，还将发布其《缩减美联储资产负债表规模原则》附录，具体规定其所持美国国债和机构证券的平仓上限。我们基线预期是长期美债持有上限 600 亿美元，MBS 持有上限 400 亿美元，短期美债无限额。这将发出美联储准备在 5 月启动量化紧缩 (QT) 的强烈信号。此外在经济摘要中，我行预期美联储加息周期中值提前，今明后三年分别加息 5 次、4 次和 1 次。经济增速和失业率应该向下修正，整体和核心个人消费支出通胀向上修正。美联储主席鲍威尔料传达强硬信息，即重申美联储需严肃对待物价稳定问题，也会指出俄乌冲突和大宗商品价格上涨对通胀前景预测带来不确定性。
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