中泰国际：港股流动性短空长多

USHK News
2023.02.22 02:30
金十数据 2 月 22 日讯，短期内美债长端利率及美汇指数的反弹会制约港股的上行空间，但这反弹是强弩之末。当前市场隐含年内利率峰值在 5.25%-5.50% 的区间，若接下来 3 月的 FOMC 会议美联储无意再大幅上调终端利率水平，将预示本轮加息周期接近尾声，10 年期美债利率重回 10 月底的高点 (4.335%) 的机率较低。美元指数及 10 年期美债利率在短暂的冲高后将重回中期下行趋势，届时将纾缓港股资金流的压力。受惠于中国经济逐渐复苏、一系列的产业监管政策大幅转向、外资加速流入中国股市、美国进入加息周期尾声等支持因素，人民币再大幅贬值的机会不高。
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