美联储紧急出手后，3 月加息 50BP 的几率不足 10%

Zhitong
2023.03.12 23:13
今日，美联储宣布新的紧急银行定期融资计划，称财政部将提供 250 亿美元紧急贷款支持。市场的反应是戏剧性的，最直观的表现便是对美联储利率轨迹的预期出现了 “崩溃”。掉期交易显示，终端利率预期从周三时在 9 月达到的 5.70% 暴跌至在 6 月达到 5.11%，同时市场对 2023 年下半年美联储降息的预期正在飙升。当下，市场对 3 月份加息 50 个基点的几率从 75% 暴跌至不足 10%，5 月份加息 50 个基点的几率已被抹去。目前市场上有关 “美联储是时候考虑暂停加息甚至降息” 的声音正越来越多。
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