After the credit rating agency Fitch downgraded the top-tier sovereign credit rating of the United States, the US July ADP employment data released the next day exceeded expectations, boosting the US dollar and US bond yields. Economists downplayed the impact of the rating downgrade, but risk sentiment remained heavily hit. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and small-cap stocks all fell by about 1%. American Superconductor plummeted nearly 29%, while NIO reached another all-time high. The two-year US Treasury yield narrowed significantly, and the US dollar rebounded to a three-and-a-half-week high. Offshore renminbi briefly fell below 7.21 yuan, hitting a one-week low of 270 points. Oil prices dropped more than 2%, with WTI crude falling below $80, and gold fell below $1940, reaching a three-week low.
In July, the "mini non-farm payroll" exceeded expectations with a strong increase of 324,000 jobs in the private sector in the United States, nearly double the forecasted number. This indicates that the US labor market remains robust more than a year after the interest rate hike, driving up the value of the US dollar and US bond yields, but sharply reducing the previous value of 497,000 jobs.
The "black swan" event in the United States has shaken global markets, as Moody's unexpectedly downgraded the US AAA sovereign credit rating, dampening risk sentiment and triggering profit-taking. However, some analysts believe that the fundamental view of the economy or the market has not changed, as the US economy continues to demonstrate resilience, unlike the last time the credit rating was downgraded.
Alec Phillips, Chief Political Economist at Goldman Sachs, stated that the decision to downgrade the rating did not rely on new fiscal information and, apart from short-term impact selling, it would not have a lasting effect on market sentiment. Major holders of US bonds are unlikely to be forced to sell.
The Nasdaq fell more than 2%, marking its worst performance in two months, while the S&P and Dow Jones both dropped by about 1%, with Chinese tech and internet stocks experiencing significant declines.
On Wednesday, August 2nd, due to the negative impact of Moody's unexpected downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, US stocks opened lower, with the Nasdaq falling 150 points at the opening. Within the first hour of trading, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 small-cap stocks all fell more than 1%, while the Dow Jones fell more than 200 points.
At the end of the day, stock indexes in the US hit their daily lows. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, experienced the most severe sell-off, dropping nearly 370 points or 2.6%, falling below the 14,000-point mark. The Dow Jones fell more than 400 points or 1.1%, and the S&P 500 fell the most at 1.6%.
At the close, the Dow Jones ended its three-day rally to reach its lowest level since July 21st, falling below the high reached on February 9th last year. The S&P and Nasdaq both fell for two consecutive days, with the S&P reaching its lowest level since July 14th and moving further away from the high reached on March 30th last year. The Nasdaq reached its lowest level since July 12th, moving further away from the high set two weeks ago in April last year, and experienced its worst single-day performance since February, falling more than 2%:
The S&P 500 fell 63.34 points, or 1.38%, to close at 4,513.39. The Dow Jones fell 348.16 points, or 0.98%, to close at 35,282.52. The Nasdaq fell 310.47 points, or 2.17%, to close at 13,973.45. The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 1.4%.
Nasdaq falls more than 2%, marking its worst performance since February, while the S&P and Dow Jones both drop by about 1%
Following the downgrade of the United States' AAA top sovereign credit rating by rating agency Fitch, the S&P 11 sectors experienced a general decline. The information technology/tech sector fell by 2.6%, telecommunications services fell by 2.1%, consumer discretionary fell by 1.8%, while energy, materials, and industrial sectors fell by a maximum of 1.3%. The healthcare sector saw a modest increase of less than 0.1%, and consumer staples rose by 0.3%, performing the best.
Tech giants collectively fell by about 2%. The "metaverse" company Meta dropped by 2.6%, further distancing itself from its highest point since January last year. Amazon fell by 2.6% to a one-week low, Netflix fell by 2%, and Apple, which reported its earnings on Thursday, fell by 1.6% to a one-and-a-half-week low. Microsoft fell by 2.6% to its lowest point in nearly two months, and Google Class A shares fell by 2.4%, further deviating from their highest point since April last year. Tesla fell by 2.7% to a six-week low.
Chip stocks also plummeted significantly. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 3.8%, further deviating from its highest point in nearly 19 months since January last year. AMD fell by 7% to a six-week low, Intel fell by nearly 4%, further distancing itself from its one-year high, and Nvidia fell by nearly 5% to a three-week low. Qualcomm fell by over 2% and continued to fall by over 3% after hours. Although its second-quarter EPS exceeded expectations, its revenue was not satisfactory.
AI concept stocks experienced a significant correction. C3.ai fell by over 10%, ending its three-day consecutive gains and deviating from its six-week high. Palantir Technologies fell by over 5%, falling below its highest point since November 2021. BigBear.ai fell by 6.6%, deviating from its four-week high, and SoundHound.ai fell by 5%, approaching its four-month low.
In terms of news, Meta launched AudioCraft, a generative AI tool for audio and music. Tesla launched a summer consumer season promotion. AMD's second-quarter revenue and profits exceeded expectations, but poor performance in the PC market led to an 18% year-on-year decline in revenue. The company's sales guidance for the third quarter was slightly lower than expected, but it remains optimistic about significant growth in its data center business in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter.
Popular Chinese concept stocks have been declining for two consecutive days in the U.S. stock market. The ETF KWEB fell by 4.7%, CQQQ fell by 2.9%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell by 4.2%, falling below 7,400 points and further deviating from the nearly six-month high set on Monday. In July, it had risen by nearly 20%.
The Cyberspace Administration of China plans to strengthen the protection of minors on the internet, causing Chinese concept stocks in the internet and gaming sectors to decline. Among the constituents of the Nasdaq 100, JD.com fell by 4.5%, Pinduoduo fell by 6.8%, and Baidu fell by over 4%. In other individual stocks, Alibaba and Bilibili fell by 5%, Tencent ADR fell by 3.8%, Tencent Music fell by 4.8%, and NetEase fell by 2.6%. XPeng Motors fell by 6%, and the Vice President of Autonomous Driving, Wu Xinzhou, will leave the company. NIO fell by 6.6% but closed down by only 0.4%, not far from its highest point in nearly ten months. Li Auto fell by 2.7% before rebounding, setting a new historical high once again. Regional bank stocks narrowed their losses in the afternoon, moving away from the high point since the crisis on March 8. The industry benchmark, the KBW Bank Index (BKX) on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, fell more than 1% to a two-week low. It had reached its lowest point since October 2020 on May 4, but had risen more than 11% in July. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (KRX) fell 0.3% to a one-week low, with an accumulated increase of over 18% in July. It had reached its lowest point since November 2020 on May 11. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 0.5% to a one-week low, having reached its lowest point since October 2020 on May 4.
The "Big Four" banks in the United States all fell more than 1%. PacWest Bancorp and KeyCorp fell 0.8%, while Western Alliance Bancorp and Zions Bancorporation fell by about 1%, with their losses halved in the afternoon. These key regional bank stocks all rebounded by double-digit percentages in July.
Other stocks with significant changes include:
Superconductor Corporation fell nearly 29%, giving back more than half of Monday's 60% gain and falling below the highest point since November 2021.
Healthcare giant CVS Health rose more than 3% to a four-month high. Its second-quarter revenue and earnings exceeded expectations, and it maintained its full-year guidance despite layoffs and cost reductions following the acquisitions of Signify Health for $8 billion and Oak Street Health for $10.6 billion.
SolarEdge, a photovoltaic component supplier, fell more than 18% to a nine-and-a-half-month low and its largest annual decline in a year. Its second-quarter EPS exceeded expectations, but its revenue was disappointing. The third-quarter revenue outlook was also unfavorable, dragging down the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), which fell 5.5% for its largest decline in over three months.
European stocks fell 1.3%, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index falling 1.35% to a two-week low. It fell more than 2.2% over the two days. The Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 1.6%, falling more than 3% over the two days and breaking through the key technical level of the 50-day moving average.
All sectors and national stock indices declined, with mining and retail stocks leading the market with a decline of about 2.7%. The German stock index fell from its closing record high for three consecutive days. The Russian MOEX index rose against the trend for five consecutive days, reaching its highest level since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in mid-February last year.
Significant Narrowing of the Two-Year Treasury Yield, 10-Year Yield Rises 8 Basis Points to Nine-Month High
The U.S. Treasury Department will increase the size of next week's refinancing bond issuance to $103 billion, mainly in the form of selling 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds. The increased issuance of bonds has caused long-term U.S. Treasury yields to continue to rise, offsetting the impact of the downgrade in credit ratings on safe-haven demand.
The two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, briefly fell 6 basis points to 4.85%. The decline in U.S. stocks narrowed to less than 2 basis points during trading, hovering around 4.90%, close to a three-week high.
The 10-year benchmark yield briefly fell more than 4 basis points and approached the 4% level. U.S. stocks turned higher during trading and rose by a maximum of 8 basis points, breaking through 4.10%, the highest level in nine months since November 6 last year. The 30-year long bond yield briefly rose 10 basis points to 4.22%.
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields lead the gains
Some analysts pointed out that the size of the bond issuance may have a short-term impact on U.S. Treasury yields, but the larger and more lasting factor is the higher possibility of a soft landing in the U.S. economy, which is driving up long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Jefferies warned that if the 10-year Treasury yield rises above the upper range of 4.25%, it may begin to have some impact on U.S. stocks.
Ahead of incremental bond issuance, 10-year yield rises 8 basis points to nine-month high
The unexpected "black swan" event of the U.S. credit rating downgrade triggered a demand for safe-haven bonds, causing a collective decline in European bond yields. The yield on the 10-year German benchmark bond in the eurozone briefly fell more than 6 basis points and fell below 2.50%, while the two-year yield also fell 6 basis points. The yield spread between 10-year U.S./German government bonds exceeded 160 basis points, the highest level since December last year.
Oil Prices Fall Over 2%, U.S. Oil Drops Below $80, European Natural Gas Rises Over 5%
Risk sentiment is suppressed, and international oil prices, which are also risk assets, extended their decline to 2% during U.S. trading, further moving away from the three-month high set in mid-April, with WTI crude oil falling below the psychological level of $80.
WTI September crude oil futures closed down $1.88, or 2.31%, at $79.49 per barrel. Brent October futures closed down $1.71, or 2.01%, at $83.20 per barrel. ](../../livenews/edit/2512567)
WTI crude oil fell the most by $2.31 or 2.8%, briefly approaching $79, while international Brent crude oil fell the most by $2.17 or 2.6%, briefly falling below $83, both experiencing a two-day consecutive decline to the lowest level since July 27.
Oil prices fell more than 2%, moving away from a three-month high, with WTI crude oil falling below $80.
Earlier, oil prices initially jumped more than $1 due to a sharp drop in US inventory data, breaking through $82 and approaching $86 respectively. The American Petroleum Institute (API) announced yesterday that crude oil inventories decreased by more than 15 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels.
Official data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) also confirmed that crude oil inventories decreased by more than 17 million barrels last week, marking the largest weekly decline in history, with an expected decrease of 1.05 million barrels. The weekly decline in crude oil inventories along the US Gulf Coast also reached a record high, indicating a recovery in demand.
The market is paying attention to the OPEC+ meeting on Friday. Some insiders said that the OPEC+ oil-producing countries alliance is unlikely to adjust oil policies. However, it is widely believed that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, will voluntarily extend the production cut of 1 million barrels per day until September to tighten supply.
TTF Dutch natural gas futures, the European benchmark, rose more than 5%, approaching the 30 euro/megawatt-hour mark, after falling more than 25% in July. ICE UK natural gas rose 6%, after falling more than 27% in July and briefly approaching the lowest level in nearly two years since September 2021.
The US dollar rebounded to a three-and-a-half-week high, while the yen remained at a three-week low, and the offshore renminbi briefly fell below 7.21 yuan.
Both the US dollar and US bond yields fell after the US credit rating was downgraded, but rebounded during the US stock market session.
The DXY, which measures the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.3%, stabilizing above 102.50, reaching a three-and-a-half-week high since July 7, rebounding more than 2% from a 15-month low below 100 in mid-July.
Some analysts believe that the strength of the US dollar may pose a resistance to the continued rise of the stock market. The weakening of investor risk appetite and the decline in global stock markets have also benefited the US dollar as a safe haven. After the ADP employment data exceeded expectations, the US dollar rose in the short term.
The US dollar rebounded to a three-and-a-half-week high, breaking through the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
The euro fell another 0.3% against the US dollar, further away from the three-week low below 1.10. The British pound fell 0.4% against the US dollar, further away from 1.28, the lowest level since July 6. The safe-haven currency, the Japanese yen, rose against the US dollar and briefly broke through 143, still hovering near a three-and-a-half-week low. The riskier Australian dollar fell by 1%. The offshore Chinese yuan briefly fell below 7.21 yuan, dropping 270 points from the previous day's closing price to a one-week low.
Mainstream cryptocurrencies experienced a general decline. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, remained near a six-week low of $29,000, having dropped 4% in July. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, fell by 0.6% and approached the $1,830 level, experiencing a cumulative decline of 3.4% in July.
Gold falls below $1,940, nickel and zinc drop over 3%, corn falls over 13% in seven days, wheat falls about 16% in six days
The rise in the US dollar and US bond yields put pressure on precious metals. COMEX October gold futures fell by 0.19% to $1,955.5 per ounce, while COMEX September silver futures fell by 1.86% to $23.872 per ounce, both experiencing a two-day decline.
Spot gold fell by $11 or 0.6%, erasing all gains made after the downgrade of US credit ratings, dropping below $1,950 and falling below the $1,940 level. Spot silver fell by 2.7%, both reaching a three-week low since July 12.
London industrial metals decline for two consecutive days:
Dr. Copper, the economic barometer that fell by 2.3% yesterday, fell by an additional 1.4% and dropped below $8,600, reaching a one-week low. It had risen to a more than three-month high since April 20 on Monday and had a gain of over 6% in July, the best monthly performance since January.
London aluminum, which fell by over 1% yesterday, fell by 2% and approached $2,200, further away from the highest level in over two months since May 19. London zinc fell by over 3% and dropped below $2,500, moving away from the early May high. London nickel fell by nearly $800 or 3.6%, dropping below $22,000 to a one-week low and far from the five-week high. London tin, which fell by over 3% yesterday, fell by over 1% again, hitting a one-month low.
Chicago corn futures fell by nearly 2%, falling for seven consecutive days and experiencing a cumulative decline of over 13%, approaching the bottom reached on January 5, 2021. Wheat futures fell by nearly 2%, falling for six consecutive days and experiencing a cumulative decline of about 16%. The Bloomberg Grains Subindex fell for seven consecutive days and experienced a cumulative decline of over 11%.