What's the next move in the smart driving competition? Where does Xiaopeng Motors stand?

Wallstreetcn
2023.09.20 07:07
portai
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How much sales can Xiaopeng achieve with intelligent driving?

The departure of Wu Xinzhou, Vice President of Xiaopeng's autonomous driving division, not only deprived Xiaopeng of a key figure in autonomous driving but also indirectly cast a shadow over the future prospects of Xiaopeng's strong alliance with Volkswagen. After all, one of the important reasons why Volkswagen chose to invest in Xiaopeng was Xiaopeng's advantage in the field of intelligence.

However, Xiaopeng, currently ranked in the top tier of intelligent driving, will certainly not slow down its development in this field.

As the first new force in the car-making industry to be invested by overseas giants, Xiaopeng's solid strength in electrification and intelligence has undoubtedly been recognized. At the same time, Nvidia's poaching behavior indirectly proves the talent value of Xiaopeng in the field of intelligent driving.

So, what is the charm of Xiaopeng in the field of intelligent driving that has earned the recognition of industry giants?

1. Significant Accumulation of Advantages in Rapid Iteration of XPILOT

The strength of intelligent driving is not easily obtained. It took Xiaopeng six years to achieve this, always maintaining a dual focus on intelligence and electrification, and firmly affixing the intelligent label to its own products.

As a new energy vehicle company that comprehensively benchmarks Tesla, Xiaopeng not only has similar vehicle models to Tesla (P7 benchmarking Model 3, G6 benchmarking Model Y), but also in the field of intelligent driving, Xiaopeng's autonomous driving system XPILOT closely follows Tesla's FSD in terms of technological level and capabilities.

In 2018, Xiaopeng's first-generation Xpilot intelligent assisted driving system could only perform basic functions such as adaptive cruise control, and it did not have much advantage compared to the systems of other new energy vehicle companies at that time, such as NIO Pilot from NIO.

However, Xiaopeng's intelligent driving system has a much higher update iteration speed than its competitors, basically following the pace of launching new vehicle models. With the gradual launch of Xiaopeng's new models G3i, P7, P5, and G9, Xiaopeng's autonomous driving system XPILOT has iterated from the first generation XPILOT to the current XPILOT 4.0.

Specifically, Xiaopeng's intelligent driving system has made significant improvements in hardware devices, data accumulation, supported scenarios, and added functionalities.

1) Hardware Devices

Among them, Xiaopeng's hardware devices for intelligent driving have seen a significant increase in both quantity and quality, with the number of sensors increasing from about 20 to 32 (the highest among new car-making forces).

The specific devices have evolved from a simple combination of cameras, millimeter-wave radar, and ultrasonic radar to a comprehensive combination of cameras, millimeter-wave radar, ultrasonic radar, lidar, high-precision maps, and high-precision positioning.

The synchronous improvement in quality and quantity allows Xiaopeng's intelligent driving system to strive for higher levels of intelligent driving.

The upgraded XPILOT not only has stronger environmental perception capabilities but also is more adaptable to China's complex road conditions, with significantly enhanced coverage of scenarios. (2)Accumulated Data

As of the first half of this year, Dolphin Research has sold over 300,000 vehicles. Each vehicle sold by Dolphin Research serves as a channel for obtaining real autonomous driving data.

Dolphin Research has also made rapid progress in accumulating data for its intelligent driving system, XPILOT. Currently, XPILOT has accumulated a total driving distance of 140 million kilometers, and the simulated driving distance has reached 50 million kilometers.

In comparison, Tesla's FSD has accumulated a driving distance of approximately 400 million kilometers.

During the period of Dolphin Research's intelligent driving, both excellent and flawed operations are transmitted to the cloud. This is advantageous for the subsequent training of Dolphin Research's intelligent driving system.

(3)Changes in Scenarios

Dolphin Research's intelligent driving system is gradually evolving from a single scenario to full-scenario coverage. It started with parking, then progressed to lane centering control, followed by highway automatic navigation assistance, and finally arrived at the city-wide NGP (a star feature of Dolphin Research's new generation XPILOT, covering functional roads in cities on the advanced driving assistance map).

The city-wide NGP is the most challenging scenario but also the one with the highest frequency of driver usage.

To date, Dolphin Research has implemented intelligent driving pilot programs in Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, making it the new force in the automotive industry with the most announced pilot cities.

2. No Progress Means Regression - Dolphin Research Must Maintain Focus on R&D and Penetration Rate

In order to sustain its advantages, Dolphin Research needs to continue investing in research and development and accelerate the penetration rate of its intelligent driving system.

Since the second half of last year, Dolphin Research has shown signs of a decline in sales growth and a lackluster performance in launching new models. However, this has not slowed down Dolphin Research's investment in research and development.

Dolphin Research's operating revenue has declined from 7.455 billion yuan in the first quarter of last year to around 5.06 billion yuan in the second quarter of this year. However, R&D expenses have increased. In the second quarter of this year, Dolphin Research's R&D expenditure reached approximately 1.37 billion yuan, accounting for 27% of total operating revenue.

With sufficient R&D support, Dolphin Research's next challenge is to increase the penetration rate of its own intelligent driving system.

Before the introduction of Dolphin Research's city-wide NGP, the scenarios were mainly limited to highways and parking spaces. Therefore, the proportion of time that Dolphin Research's intelligent driving system could serve users was relatively low, at only about 25%.

Poor sales of Dolphin Research's vehicles have also led to a decrease in the growth of the penetration rate of its intelligent driving system.

However, with the rapid expansion of Dolphin Research's city-wide NGP, the coverage of urban scenarios has encompassed the majority of drivers' daily commuting scenes, resulting in a significant increase in demand. As Dolphin Research's former Vice President of Autonomous Driving, Wu Xinzhou, said, urban road scenarios account for as much as 71% of the total mileage of Xiaopeng Intelligent Driving, and the proportion of vehicle usage time is close to 90%.

Currently, in the four major cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou where NGP has been implemented, Xiaopeng's NGP has achieved a penetration rate of 62%, showing rapid improvement compared to before.

3. Sales Recovery Contributes to the Promotion of Intelligent Driving

During the sales downturn in the first half of the year, Xiaopeng's progress in the field of intelligent driving has still been recognized by overseas giants. This has created a unique situation where Xiaopeng's vehicle sales are poor, but its intelligent technology can be monetized.

However, Xiaopeng has also experienced positive changes. The G6 model was launched as a hit, with sales reaching 3,900 units in just half a month. This demonstrates that the market and consumers have given recognition to this flagship model. Xiaopeng has also returned to selling over 10,000 units per month in the second half of the year.

The strong rebound in Xiaopeng's sales also has a positive impact on the promotion of its subsequent intelligent driving system.

The battlefield of intelligence is still fiercely competitive, with Xiaopeng taking the lead, but NIO, Li Auto, Avatar, and Wanjie, among other new energy vehicle companies, are following closely behind.

It is not yet time for Xiaopeng to relax. We look forward to Xiaopeng maintaining its advantage and embracing its transformative moment in the second half of the intelligent battlefield.