Steve_Z
2025.03.05 08:20

Has the apple fallen to its limit? In a pessimistic mood, is an opportunity here?

$Apple(AAPL.US) Recently, the US stock market has become a mess, especially in technology stocks. The volatility is alarming. Yesterday, all three major stock indexes closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.55%, the S&P 500 falling 1.22%, and the Nasdaq falling for several consecutive days, although the decline was relatively small (0.35%). Trump's tariffs have added fuel to the fire, and the intensity of this trade friction is clearly unbearable for the market, fearing it will drag down the US economy. The Nasdaq has been falling continuously for several days, and now is obviously not the time for all in. We need to be more stable.

Apple recently released a new iPad Air, which is equipped with the M3 chip and claims to run twice as fast as the M1 chip. That sounds good, but to be honest, Cook had a bit of a 'squeeze toothpaste' this time, and the upgrade was not significant. The prices of 11 inch and 13 inch products are $599 and $799 respectively, which are reasonable, but the impact of these product iterations on boosting confidence in the capital market is limited. The market's expectations for Apple are obviously not limited to this, especially in the current unstable macro environment. This kind of small-scale new product release is unlikely to create too much buzz.

From Apple's candlestick chart, the recent trend is indeed not very optimistic. The MACD indicator shows that DIF (0.96084) has already surpassed DEA (1.45546), and the MACD bar chart shows a negative value (-0.98925), indicating that Apple's stock price may continue to be under pressure in the short term. The KDJ index also shows that the K value (40.96) and D value (51.72) are both at a medium low level, and the J value (19.46) is closer to the oversold area, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment. From the perspective of moving averages, both MA5 (238.692) and MA10 (242.385) are showing a downward trend, with only MA20 (238.886) barely supporting. Overall, Apple's stock price may continue to fluctuate downward in the short term, but considering that KDJ is close to oversold territory, the downside space may be limited.

Although the recent trend has been weak, there are often opportunities hidden in pessimism. Looking back at history, Apple often experiences a strong rebound after short-term adjustments. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Apple's stock price plummeted at one point, but then doubled within a few months. Will this market adjustment also become an opportunity for layout?
From a fundamental perspective, Apple's profitability remains strong, and the launch of the M3 chip, although not a heavyweight, also demonstrates Apple's continued technological leadership. In addition, Apple's ecosystem remains stable, with high user stickiness for products such as iPhone, iPad, Mac, etc. In the long run, Apple is still a company worth holding.

In the current market environment, my suggestion is to build warehouses in batches and wait patiently. Apple's stock price is approaching short-term support levels, and the KDJ indicator shows oversold. There may be a chance for a rebound in the short term. However, considering the uncertainty of the macro environment, it is not recommended to heavily invest at once. Instead, a strategy of buying in batches can be adopted to gradually reduce costs. In addition, paying attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy movements will have a significant impact on market sentiment. If market sentiment further deteriorates, it may bring better buying opportunities.

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