$Tesla(TSLA.US) WS 1Q consensus estimates will be a topic of debate tomorrow when TSLA releases its 1Q production and delivery report. The freshest estimates are the $Tesla(TSLA.US) IR-compiled summary released last week, which showed 377.6K. Bloomberg consensus estimates show 390.6K but includes some analyst estimates not updated in weeks. Factset, which is used by many MSM outlets shows 1Q delivs of 407.9K. My own 1Q estimate is 361K; @troyteslike is at 355K.
IMHO, TSLA’s 1Q deliveries results are already discounted in the -36% decline in TSLA stock price YTD (NDX -8%), although a knee-jerk reaction up or down is possible. TSLA’s 1Q production total (and difference vs deliveries) could be a factor tomorrow given lack of refreshed Model Y inventory in Jan and Feb. After tomorrow’s expected weak $Tesla(TSLA.US) 1Q deliveries report, we believe the $Tesla(TSLA.US) media narrative will change from political protests taking their toll on Tesla demand to the new Model Y changeover is now complete and Tesla is again seeing strong demand as Republicans follow President Trump’s lead and buy a Tesla. TSLA China’s very strong 21.0K insured registrations for the week of March 24 to 30 behind the strength of new refreshed Model Y pushed China 1Q ahead of last year’s 1Q, finishing +1.8% YoY. The new Model Y production ramp at Giga Shanghai has gone extremely well, and new Model Y demand is very high.
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
