Tesla’s Q1 Sales Outlook Is Dismal, and I’m Bearish!

As is customary, Tesla will release its sales figures on the second day of the month following the end of each quarter—April 2 in this case.

Let’s start with market expectations:
According to the latest consensus from 15 analysts compiled by Visible Alpha, Tesla is expected to deliver approximately 373,000 vehicles in Q1, down 3.6% year-over-year. Deutsche Bank offers a more pessimistic outlook, projecting deliveries between 340,000 and 350,000 units, below last year’s Q1 figure of 387,000.

The actual sales data isn’t encouraging either:
In China, Tesla’s February sales nosedived nearly 50% year-over-year. In Europe, March registrations in France fell to just 3,157 vehicles, a 37% drop, while sales in Germany’s household market plummeted 76%.
In the U.S., 2024 marked the first annual sales decline, with Q4 growth at a paltry 2.3%, lagging far behind the industry’s 15% average.

The “Anti-Musk Movement” Dents Tesla’s Image and Sales
On March 29, a global protest called “Tesla Takedown” erupted simultaneously in the U.S., Canada, and Europe, targeting around 200 Tesla showrooms worldwide.
The reason is well-known: Musk’s alignment with Trump and his stance on the Russia-Ukraine war have sparked backlash from some users in Europe and North America.
When any individual’s power grows too large, it invites pushback. The Trump-Musk pairing has put the world on edge.

On Expectations

Tesla’s stock has already dropped 50%, which partly reflects the grim sales outlook.
However, with the broader U.S. market overly pessimistic,
I remain bearish on this quarter’s sales data!

Here’s a link to Tesla’s Investor Relations website, where the sales figures will soon be published—feel free to check it out:

https://ir.tesla.com/press